Gold's big rally has sparked a bearish stock-market signal that hasn't been seen in over 20 years

Photo above - Costco (Costco!!!!) now sells $200 million in gold coins and bars every month, as well as 50 pound bags of dog food and 200 count boxes of Kirkland disposable diapers. Is this a sign of the future, or the end?

There were at least 3 alarmist articles this morning warning about economic Armageddon. I linked to one (below) which claims: “it’s going to be like 2002 all over again”. Another warns 2026 will make 2008 look like a picnic. The third said . . . .

Well, you get the idea. Full disclosure: I’ve been predicting a market disruption/correction/crash since the Obama administration. Because of things like America's national debt, unaffordable housing, and threats to our electric grid. But I’ve not struck it rich yet with these concerns, so take my opinions with a grain of salt.

If (when?) a stock market crash DOES happen, history doesn’t suggest that gold prices will be the trigger. Gold bullion buying is an effect, not a cause. I held several gold mining stocks I bought when gold was $1,200 an ounce. Sold all my shares in 2025 when bullion hit spectacular all-time highs. Now we’re well over $5,500 an ounce, up 20% just this month. Silver is even crazier – up 70% this month, 270% in the past year. Evidently silver at $120 an ounce looks less insane than gold at $5,500?

But where is all this gold and silver money coming from? The stock market is NOT selling off yet. New all-time highs weekly. There was a Bitcoin correction 3 months ago, and crypto has been flat since. Stocks and crypto are probably NOT driving this precious metals bubble. People are not selling real estate to pile into gold either.

That leaves only one obvious source. Are gold bugs selling US Treasurie? Yen bonds, Argentina debt, Brazil, Swiss Francs? Switzerland’s bonds yield only 0.2%. Who the hell wants to own THOSE? (I toyed with the idea of emigrating to Zurich, but their housing is insanely expensive. And they have strict immigration laws).

China and India are doing most of the gold buying over the past year. Poland too. But to be fair, Poland IS constantly being threatened with the next Putin invasion. Poland is possibly Europe’s newest undeclared economic powerhouse: GDP is up 50% since 2020, vs 25% for Germany.

I’m more in awe of China’s grid hacking and space warfare capabilities, instead of their gold reserves. That sort of electronic warfare stuff has the potential to seriously disrupt our paychecks and trigger an inflation spike. But such concerns don't appear to be causing the spike in gold. Its may just be that nobody wants to own dollar denominated debt. Maybe I should sell my Treasury Bill ETFs (exchange trade funds) too? Or will I be late to the party of gold and T Bill lemmings?

ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude . . . what should I do? Wait, there's another economic article in my in basket this morning. Some investment AI bot lost $250,000 in 3 hours, despite having reviewed 3,000 economic reports.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/gold-s-big-rally-has-sparked-a-bearish-stock-market-signal-that-hasn-t-been-seen-in-over-20-years/ar-AA1VezFh?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=697b44fef25b4eff81b4e7c8ed00ed33&ei=66

https://usethebitcoin.com/news/ai-trading-bot-wipes-out-portfolio/