Predicting the Future of Venezuela

"One more such victory and we shall be utterly ruined."

-Pyrrhus of Epirus, a Greek general and originator of the term Pyrrhic victory

With Maduro apparently captured and Trump saying that the US will run the country into their cab ve a sade transition of power, the operation appears to be a short-term military success. They will probably be able to impose the pro-oligarch opposition in charge. and get lots of cheap oil.

Job done.

Or not.

I cannot see the Venezuelan people being happy with what amounts to more or less direct colonial occupation. If this plan is to 'succeed' it is going to need a near-permanent US military presence. That will cost America a lot of money and even further antagonise the locals. Even if the government forces can be quickly beaten (which seems unclear as of now) then there will be constant discord, guerrilla conflict and acts of terrorism. Not to mention, potential regional instability.

However powerful the US military is, you can't subjugate people by direct colonialism anymore. It doesn't work. That failed in Iraq and Afghanistan. I would like to know from Trump supporters why they think this time will be different.

This isn't America First. It's cosplaying the British Empire on behalf of US oligarchs and paying for that with money and other people's blood.

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Miram · 31-35, F Best Comment

Hours ago when people were hoping this will magically help venzuella, I said;

Most people there don’t support military intervention including many within the opposition.

In fact, most people in the world are sick of this nonsense.

It turns out people generally don’t want to die so others can feel morally validated from a safe distance, like héroes..

I tried to give this the benefit of the doubt, but the reality is: the ruling party has depth, legal continuity, and a fused relationship with the military. There are ready replacements and constitutional cover to keep power intact. Within a week, the VP will replace him.

The opposition has no meaningful chance under this structure.

Which makes the next move predictable, either more occupation or shifting from “liberation” rhetoric to arming proxies.

Strategically speaking , without morality involved, bombing venzuala and kidnapping him and his wife were both wrong decisions, if the goal is to create some sort of stability or balance.

But that is not the goal.

The military has strong ties with the ruling party. I don't think the US will need the opposition in charge, but this is certainly not a regime change. The president is just one member of an already existing dictatorship.

The VP seems to be in charge now. And the US agrees.

The goal was never about giving the people the chance to overthrow the dictatorship. That will never happen.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Miram I think this is better than what I said.