70 million baby boomers about to sell their homes?

Photo above - Wilford Brimley and Don Ameche already moved to Florida in 1985 for the film "Cocoon". Don't wait for their prior homes to come on the market.

I put a question mark after MSN’s misleading headline, because it seemed bogus. And sure enough, it is (Silver Tsunami coming as 70MM boomers try to sell homes). See link below.

First of all, there aren’t actually 70 million boomers still alive. Someone built an internet boomer DEATH CLOCK (similar to the national debt clock). There’s a link below for that too. 85.4 million boomers were born (1946-1964). 32.6 million have already died. There’s only 50+/- million left. There are NOT 70 million geezers who are plotting to sell.

But how many boomers actually own homes? Fannie Mae says there are 32 million houses, condos, co-ops etc involved. I’ve included another link to that. So MSN is off - by about 100%. But let’s not obsess that the mainstream press is 100% wrong on many financial matters. Let’s focus on what might happen if and when those 32 million homes come on the market, okay?

If I’m inheriting my Mom’s house, I MIGHT possibly want to sell it. It depends. Maybe I already live with her. Maybe the house has a super low mortgage rate, and if I sell it to flip the proceeds into a more hip crib for myself, my mortgage expense could double. Maybe I can’t even qualify for mortgage, because of the bankruptcy I filed 5 years ago. Okay, in that case I’m staying, provided that’s where I work. House not for sale.

If I live out of state, I might sell. Who wants to move back to Albany or Toledo? The weather is crappy 6 months out of the year, there’s no jobs, and property taxes are sky high. So yes . . . sell. But don’t expect a windfall. Hollowed out rust belt cities have already had a housing market crash, because of the aforementioned job scarcity and high taxes. No pot of gold for me, and no amazing flip coming on the market for Tareq and Christina in Toledo when I list. I’m competing against similar run-down 50 year old (or more) properties. (“When did you say the kitchen and bath were last updated? 1975? Gotcha . . .”)

I suspect a lot of boomers in their 70’s and 80’s are going to try and stay in their homes until they die. Even if it takes reverse mortgages and Helocs to pay the property taxes and utility bills. Have you priced homeowners' insurance in Florida? Property taxes? Or the monthly charge for an assisted living center for seniors? The widow of a retired steelworker is never going to be able to afford for that. Plus, she doesn’t know anyone in Florida and never played golf. She’s going to remain right on the block where she’s lived for the last 40 years, and go to Sunday Lutheran or Catholic services with people whom she’s known all her life.

Someone won the $1.8 billion Powerball last night. THEYRE going to move to a new home, for sure. But I doubt if they will be considering Albany or Toledo either. Jeff Bezos, that giant mansion being built next door in Florida is your new neighbor from Arkansas, where the winning ticket was sold. (“Sooie . .. “ the official cheer of the University of Arkansas Razorbacks).

I’m just sayin’ . . .



A silver tsunami is coming as 70M boomers try to sell their homes

Real-Time Death Clock - Baby Boomers 1946-1964

Housing Insights: The Coming Exodus of Older Homeowners