DIS-inflation alert. New cars about to get a lot cheaper? And used ones, too?

Photo above - KBB.com (kelly blue book) says this "buy here pay here" used car lot has 10,000 vehicles on hand. Could it get worse - a lot worse - as repo's continue to arrive?

If you’re past due on your auto loan/lease, I urge you to run and look out the window. Is your ride still there, or being towed? If it’s not towed yet, you should mosey over to the bank on this black Friday and get your payments caught up. Repos are skyrocketing, and lenders have no reason to show mercy.

It’s not just subprime borrowers (Fico <620), even though 6% of those bad apples are indeed 2 months (or more) past due. Even if you personally have an excellent FICO score (780 or higher), you and your cohorts have seen delinquencies triple over the past few months. (link at bottom).

The Federal Reserve must be ecstatic. This is how the government fights inflation: (1) Raise interest rates which (2) makes it harder to build new factories or offices which (3) leads to layoffs, which (4) leads to car repos and evictions. Thank you, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

It won’t be just by the surfeit of used/repo-car buyers turning away from the new car showrooms. With car loan delinquencies going up, banks are getting MUCH more conservative in their lending. As in asking for larger down payments, stronger income to debt ratios and simply saying no. That’s what happens in an economic downturn. Banks start saying no-no-no to almost everything, because they’re bleeding to death from defaulted car loans and mortgages, and commercial loans. No-no-no . . .

I realize my next advice will be throwing gasoline on the fire, but here goes: Don’t buy a car this month, or in December, of even in January if you can find a way to delay it. Save that year-end bonus for a few more months. I can’t pinpoint exactly WHEN new car prices will crash, but it will probably take a few months after the imprudent among us have spent their bonuses on new cars. Can you wait until March 2026? A snowy day on the last week of the month? By then dealers will be up to their eyeballs in inventory, and desperate to offload some of the thousands of cars and pickups on their back lots. Make an offer. Pick a number under "dealer cost" which is made up lie anyway.

And if you don’t like the salesman’s “best price”, just say no-no-no and edge toward the door. You will be amazed at how quickly the sales manager will rush out of his little glass closet and ask you to wait while they run the numbers again. After the price comes down another $1,000 or $2,000, THEN you can say yes. But ask for free floor mats and 12 months of complimentary oil changes too, just before you sign. Yes-yes-yes.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Auto Loan Delinquencies Are Way Up, Making It Harder To Get A Loan