Rivian bets the farm on its new $5 billion plant. But they already lose $40,000 per vehicle sold.

Photo above - A Google search for "worst lifted Rivian" immediately produced this gem. If you can find anything funnier, please post it in your replies.

If you’re like me, you might see (maybe) 1 Rivian truck per week. There’s a guy who has a Rivian at the parking lot where I work. I don’t know what he paid for it, but no matter what it was, he should consider himself a lottery winner. Rivians cost $40,000 more to make than what he paid for it. (see link below)

Rivian has a plan to fix all that. A new $5 Billion plant in Georgia. This probably means a non-unionized workforce, which is the bright spot for this troubled automaker. Although robots might work cheaper and demand no health benefits or pension plan.

Rivian announced plans for this new factory in 2021, right after Biden’s inauguration, amidst giddy excitement over new/expanded/continued EV tax credits. But they’re just breaking ground now, more than 4 years later. The press release on the factory groundbreaking doesn’t go into specifics about the delay. Perhaps profits, or lack of them?

Rivian sold 50,000 vehicles in 2024. This year they plan on selling LESS (40-45,000). I’m guessing that lack of production capacity is not the problem here, since they already produce 20% more in previous years. So why the new factory?

Rivian is possibly anticipating a Gavin Newsom victory in the 2028 presidential election, and restoration of the EV tax credits? That is one huge bet. If you amortize that $5 billion factory over 20 years, and 50,000 vehicles per year, it increases the loss per vehicle by another $5,000 . . . on top of what they’re already losing.

There are at least 2 dozen abandoned auto plants Rivian could have picked up for a song. Presumably these would cost more to renovate than new construction. Or those plants could be in high tax/high crime locations with an unreliable workforce.

Rivian may be hoping that they will own the EV truck market when the dust settles. Ram has completely cancelled their battery pickup truck, and is pivoting to hybrids. Ford cancelled a giant battery factory even before Trump won the election last year. Don’t get me started on the Tesla Cyber Truck.

I don’t wish any misfortune on aspiring Rivian workers from “The Goober State” (peanuts, Georgia’s official state crop. It’s not peaches, despite what you may have heard. Google Jimmy Carter for details).

I don’t wish any misfortune on Rivian investors either. The stock (RIVN) is already down 90% - to $13, from it’s all time high of $130. They’ve suffered enough. If they want to stop their pain and suffering they should possibly vote differently at shareholder meetings?

I’m just sayin’ . . .


It's 'do or die' for electric vehicle maker Rivian as it breaks ground on a $5 billion plant

Rivian Slashes 2025 Sales Forecast By Up To 13%, But Secret Stockpile Could Help | Carscoops

How Much Does Rivian Lose Per Vehicle? A Detailed Breakdown - Accounting Insights