California closes two more gasoline refineries. Is this a ploy to eliminate ICE cars completely?

Photo above - Shots fired at a Shell station in 1996's "Romeo+Juliet" starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Clair Danes. Spoiler alert - high pump prices weren't reason why guns were drawn.

And just like that . . . California loses another 250 million barrels a day of gasoline capacity. About one quarter of the state’s daily demand. Valero and Phillips 66 are waving goodbye. See link below.

California famously has “the world’s 5th largest economy”. But as far as refinery capacity goes, it’s not even in the top 20. Places like Italy, Japan, South Korea and even Singapore have more refinery capacity. California has 12% of America’s population but just 6% of the refinery capacity. Is the long-range plan to buy gasoline from Texas and Mexico, or go straight to electricity?

California’s electricity prices are already more than double the rest of the USA. 33 cents per kWh. But that’s only if you’re lucky enough to live inland, away from places like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego. The closer you get those cities, the higher your electricity AND pump prices go.

I’ll avoid my usual rant about how AI systems, cloud servers, and data centers are sending our electric bills to the moon. I’ve done that several times this month already. Suffice it say that even with California's sky high gas prices, the cost of topping off your Tesla is sometimes more expensive (e-mpg) than putting the nozzle for 87 octane in your Toyota.

Will gas go to $8 a gallon, like the article predicts? Eventually, but I don’t think that will happen next year. If it does, California politicians are the dumbest in America. 2026 is election year. All the redistricting on earth might not be able to save elected officials if people can’t afford to get to work, and have to queue in line for a half hour to fill up. Remember how the 1970’s oil crisis ended Gerald Ford’s re-election hopes? Successor Jimmy Carter famously appeared on TV in a sweater, telling everyone to turn down their thermostats and go to permanent daylight savings time to save energy, and then HE was toast too.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

‘Cannot do business in the state of California’: Gas prices could hit $8/gallon as two refineries shut down

This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »

JSul3 · 70-79

Edited from a lengthy article.
Union of Concerned Scientists.
The Equation
What’s Happening with California’s Gasoline Supply?
June 27, 2025

While the press focuses on the announcements of refinery closures in the last year, the number of oil refineries operating in California has been falling steadily since the 1980s.

1983 California had 40 operating oil refineries with a combined capacity of 2.3 million barrels per day (MBPD). By 2025 the number of refineries had fallen 65 percent to 13, but their combined capacity had fallen just 30 percent, to 1.6 MBPD. The average throughput of a refinery in this timeframe more than doubled.

The industry has been steadily consolidating from 40 California refineries in 1983 to 13 in 2025. This reduction in the number of refineries was driven primarily by consolidation into larger refineries, in a process that is occurring not only in California but across the US and around the world. The average throughput of California’s refineries doubled in this period as the total production capacity fell just 30 percent.

In the last few years, this consolidation in California has created an increasingly severe problem with concentrated market power, with a smaller number of companies controlling the market, especially the gasoline market. In 2024, the CEC noted that just 5 companies controlled 98 percent of the gasoline refining capacity, which was already raising red flags. But by the time Valero closes the Benicia refinery in 2026, just three companies will control more than 90 percent of California’s gasoline refining capacity. When markets are this concentrated, competition between private companies is no longer adequate to ensure that consumers get fair prices.

In light of the two refinery closure announcements, imports are no longer an occasional strategy to deal with short term issues, but an important part of the California fuel landscape, expected to supply 15 percent or more of the state’s gasoline going forward. In addition to gasoline imports, California also exports fuel to Arizona and Nevada and exports a lot of diesel to global markets.

The implication is that California is no longer a self-sufficient fuel island, and will rely on imports to supply a persistent and significant share of its gasoline into the future. This is a major change in California fuel marketplace, and it has important implications for ports, ships, pipelines and gasoline regulations.

Source: Jeremy Martin, Director of Fuels Policy/Union of Concerned Scientists.
Jeremy Martin evaluates the impact of biofuels and fuel policy. Dr. Martin is the author of more than 15 technical publications and 13 patents on topics ranging from biofuels lifecycle accounting to semiconductor manufacturing and polymer physics.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@JSul3 none of this explains why california doesn't refine enough gasoline to meet the needs of its residents - even AFTER massive tax rebates on converting to EV cars.

Full Disclosure - I actuallly LOVE the "union of concerned scientists". They've been predicting nuclear annihilation since 1947 . . . nearly 80 years. In their thinking, it's now 89 seconds to midnight. If they were paying attention to Putin's constant speeches about who he wants to nuke, and Irans and North Korea's nuclear weapons programs, they might adjust the time a little.

The next nuclear weapon won't be detonated by the USA.

JSul3 · 70-79

@SusanInFlorida As noted in the edited article, the oil companies control their production.

CA is moving away from fossil fuels....just like the rest of the world, sans Trump's America.

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@SomeMichGuy we are agreed. Putin - in a speech - targeted Las Vegas of all places. My guess is that there's an equal chance the next nuke will be detonated in space, to kill nearby military satellites.