Not worried about the house. And both Illinois's Senate members are Democrats anyway. The Senate really matters in all the other states.
This will not effect the Senate. With the Senate Trump WILL have his way, like with the supreme Court in the first term. The courts interpret the constitution. Not the house. The Senate controls the courts.
Effects of Gerrymandering on the Senate 1. Statewide Political Climate
While Senate races are statewide, the political climate shaped by gerrymandered House districts can create an environment that influences Senate elections. If one party dominates House races due to gerrymandering, it may create a perception of strength that can affect Senate campaigns.
2. Voter Turnout
In states with gerrymandered districts, voter apathy can increase if constituents feel their votes in House races are predetermined. This disengagement can extend to Senate elections, potentially lowering turnout for those races.
3. Candidate Positioning
The political dynamics created by gerrymandered districts can influence the types of candidates that parties choose to run for Senate. Candidates may adopt more extreme positions to appeal to their party's base, which can affect the competitiveness of Senate races.
4. Resource Allocation
Political parties may prioritize resources for House races in gerrymandered states, potentially neglecting Senate races. This can impact the competitiveness of Senate elections, especially if one party feels secure in its House majority.
5. Long-term Political Trends
Over time, the effects of gerrymandering can contribute to a long-term political trend within a state, influencing the Senate by creating a more entrenched party dominance that affects future Senate elections.
These points illustrate how gerrymandering can indirectly shape the political landscape and dynamics surrounding Senate elections, even though it does not directly alter the Senate's structure.
The Senate is far more partisan than in decades past, in large part because of the greater number of "safe" Senate seats.
Senate in 1991
Senate in 2019
It's going to take longer for the Dems to build up a safe Senate majority (that a Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema can't derail). Once we have the trifecta, we need to immediately made states of D.C., Puerto Rico and the other territories with binding referrendum on the question of statehood with a simple yes or no question on the ballot.
The House, however, is winnable at the mid-terms - and that must be the focus of Democratic election strategy in 2026.
