Trump, the Epstein Files, and the Collapse of the Conspiracy Machine
Trump, the Epstein Files, and the Collapse of the Conspiracy Machine
After years of feeding conspiracy theories, he’s choking on the biggest one.
By Mike Nellis/substack com
Jul 14, 2025
I’ve wrestled with whether to write about Trump’s unraveling over the Epstein files—but here we are. We’re now eight days into a spectacularly chaotic attempt to cover-up one of the biggest conspiracy theories in modern politics, and it’s going worse than anyone could have predicted for Trump and his loyalists.
The Bedrock of Conspiracy
Let’s be clear: A massive chunk of the MAGA coalition is built on people who are obsessed with conspiracy theories. It’s not a side effect—it’s the bedrock. And Trump has enthusiastically fed that machine. From the jump, Trump has been the chief supplier, feeding the base everything from birtherism (even knowing Obama was born in the U.S.) to the myth of Muslims cheering 9/11 from New York rooftops. He didn’t just tolerate these fantasies; he weaponized them. Because it opened doors to a group of people who didn’t have a political home. So, he gave them one.
This is no accident. Trump’s mentor, Roy Cohn, taught him to always attack, never admit fault, and claim victory no matter the outcome. That’s the playbook: invent or amplify a conspiracy, ride the chaos, and cash in on the attention.
On Truth Social, Trump has turned up the volume, averaging dozens of posts a day. He’s claimed the FBI tried to assassinate him, the government staged January 6th, and George Soros is the puppet master. He’s reposted QAnon slogans—“Nothing can stop what is coming,” “WWG1WGA”—and pushed memes about military tribunals for his enemies.
But here’s the problem: Trump spent years playing with fire, and now he’s finally getting burned with Epstein.
Epstein: The Broken Promise
Trump promised transparency. He promised to reveal the truth about the Kennedy assassination, the Deep State, and, most loudly, Jeffrey Epstein. But now, when it matters, he’s nowhere to be found. He’s implicated—or at least, he acts like he is. Elon Musk even posted (before deleting) that Trump is in the Epstein files. If he isn’t, his behavior this week makes zero sense.
You’ve got people like Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, and Dan Bongino—grifting for clout, for proximity to power, for likes—hyping up the Epstein files for months like they had them in their hands. Kash Patel, before even stepping into the FBI director seat, said the Bureau had the files. Pam Bondi literally claimed they were on her desk.
Then, a week ago, on a sleepy Sunday night over a holiday weekend, they quietly announced the investigation was closed. No Epstein list. No bribery. No bombshells. Nothing.
Come on.
This isn’t just about Trump being buddies with Epstein (which is already well-documented). It’s not just about him being on the flight logs. It’s that he's protecting other powerful people. That’s the heart of this. In fact, a lot of MAGA influencers were openly arguing yesterday that they couldn’t release the Epstein files because it would hurt Republicans in the midterms. Kind of says a lot about what’s in them, huh?
The MAGA movement was sold a fantasy—that Trump would blow up the system, that he would expose the rot, that he would take down the secret cabal of elites hurting kids and hiding secrets. QAnon, Pizzagate, Clinton conspiracies—it all got a seat at the table. Trump welcomed that energy, legitimized it, because it was useful to him. It helped him take over the GOP. It gave him power and got him to the presidency.
But now? He’s desperate to make it all disappear.
Because it turns out—shocker—he is the rot. He is the system. He’s part of the exact cabal he promised to tear down.
And he’s flailing. Hard.
Losing the Base
On Saturday, Trump posted a wild rant on Truth Social, lashing out at everyone but himself: “Why are we giving publicity to Files written by Obama, Crooked Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and the losers and Criminals of the Biden Administration… They created the Epstein Files.”
Good lord.
He got ratioed by his own followers—on his own platform. That doesn’t happen. That’s not supposed to happen. And when even loyalists like Senator Markwayne Mullin are scrambling to shift the blame to the Democrats, you know the wheels are coming off.
The blame game doesn’t work. Republicans have all the power in Washington. Trump has the power and authority to end this. If he wanted to release the Epstein files, he could. If they wanted a GOP-led congressional investigation, the Republicans could launch one tomorrow.
So why haven’t they?
What are they hiding?
You can’t pin this on the Democrats, the media, or “political persecution.” This was a promise to the base—and they’re choking on it. Because they’re protecting Trump, Bannon, billionaires, insiders, congressional Republicans. The whole ecosystem of the rich and connected who orbited Epstein (and yes, there are likely Democrats on that list, too, and they should be held accountable).
The Consequences
If Trump completely loses the conspiracy theory part of the base—the true believers who thought he was going to burn it all down—then he's toast. Not just in the midterms, where he’s already struggling, but in the long game. Because that idea that he was different? That he would break the mold, challenge the system, create a coalition that could last decades, give people something to believe? It’s dying in real time.
He’s mismanaging this worse than anything I’ve seen before. He’s usually a master at slithering out of these messes because his control over the Republican Party is so absolute, but if this part of his base abandons him, the GOP establishment won’t be afraid of him anymore.
Not this time.
Now, he may figure out a way out. Someone’s going to get thrown under the bus, for sure—likely Pam Bondi, maybe Kash Patel or Dan Bongino—but it won’t be enough. The damage is real. And it might be permanent.
Now, these people aren’t going to become Democrats overnight. I’m not naive. But they might disengage. They might go, “Screw this. I bought it. I believed. And I got this!?”
And that disillusionment is contagious. Because this whole ecosystem—of influencers, of MAGA leaders, of Trump-aligned politicians—has been built on this exact kind of bullshit. And now Trump is the one covering for Epstein. Trump is the establishment. Trump is the deep state.
That’s how it feels to them.
And if they start tuning out? If they stay home in 2026 and 2028?
Then Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are dead.
After years of feeding conspiracy theories, he’s choking on the biggest one.
By Mike Nellis/substack com
Jul 14, 2025
I’ve wrestled with whether to write about Trump’s unraveling over the Epstein files—but here we are. We’re now eight days into a spectacularly chaotic attempt to cover-up one of the biggest conspiracy theories in modern politics, and it’s going worse than anyone could have predicted for Trump and his loyalists.
The Bedrock of Conspiracy
Let’s be clear: A massive chunk of the MAGA coalition is built on people who are obsessed with conspiracy theories. It’s not a side effect—it’s the bedrock. And Trump has enthusiastically fed that machine. From the jump, Trump has been the chief supplier, feeding the base everything from birtherism (even knowing Obama was born in the U.S.) to the myth of Muslims cheering 9/11 from New York rooftops. He didn’t just tolerate these fantasies; he weaponized them. Because it opened doors to a group of people who didn’t have a political home. So, he gave them one.
This is no accident. Trump’s mentor, Roy Cohn, taught him to always attack, never admit fault, and claim victory no matter the outcome. That’s the playbook: invent or amplify a conspiracy, ride the chaos, and cash in on the attention.
On Truth Social, Trump has turned up the volume, averaging dozens of posts a day. He’s claimed the FBI tried to assassinate him, the government staged January 6th, and George Soros is the puppet master. He’s reposted QAnon slogans—“Nothing can stop what is coming,” “WWG1WGA”—and pushed memes about military tribunals for his enemies.
But here’s the problem: Trump spent years playing with fire, and now he’s finally getting burned with Epstein.
Epstein: The Broken Promise
Trump promised transparency. He promised to reveal the truth about the Kennedy assassination, the Deep State, and, most loudly, Jeffrey Epstein. But now, when it matters, he’s nowhere to be found. He’s implicated—or at least, he acts like he is. Elon Musk even posted (before deleting) that Trump is in the Epstein files. If he isn’t, his behavior this week makes zero sense.
You’ve got people like Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, and Dan Bongino—grifting for clout, for proximity to power, for likes—hyping up the Epstein files for months like they had them in their hands. Kash Patel, before even stepping into the FBI director seat, said the Bureau had the files. Pam Bondi literally claimed they were on her desk.
Then, a week ago, on a sleepy Sunday night over a holiday weekend, they quietly announced the investigation was closed. No Epstein list. No bribery. No bombshells. Nothing.
Come on.
This isn’t just about Trump being buddies with Epstein (which is already well-documented). It’s not just about him being on the flight logs. It’s that he's protecting other powerful people. That’s the heart of this. In fact, a lot of MAGA influencers were openly arguing yesterday that they couldn’t release the Epstein files because it would hurt Republicans in the midterms. Kind of says a lot about what’s in them, huh?
The MAGA movement was sold a fantasy—that Trump would blow up the system, that he would expose the rot, that he would take down the secret cabal of elites hurting kids and hiding secrets. QAnon, Pizzagate, Clinton conspiracies—it all got a seat at the table. Trump welcomed that energy, legitimized it, because it was useful to him. It helped him take over the GOP. It gave him power and got him to the presidency.
But now? He’s desperate to make it all disappear.
Because it turns out—shocker—he is the rot. He is the system. He’s part of the exact cabal he promised to tear down.
And he’s flailing. Hard.
Losing the Base
On Saturday, Trump posted a wild rant on Truth Social, lashing out at everyone but himself: “Why are we giving publicity to Files written by Obama, Crooked Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and the losers and Criminals of the Biden Administration… They created the Epstein Files.”
Good lord.
He got ratioed by his own followers—on his own platform. That doesn’t happen. That’s not supposed to happen. And when even loyalists like Senator Markwayne Mullin are scrambling to shift the blame to the Democrats, you know the wheels are coming off.
The blame game doesn’t work. Republicans have all the power in Washington. Trump has the power and authority to end this. If he wanted to release the Epstein files, he could. If they wanted a GOP-led congressional investigation, the Republicans could launch one tomorrow.
So why haven’t they?
What are they hiding?
You can’t pin this on the Democrats, the media, or “political persecution.” This was a promise to the base—and they’re choking on it. Because they’re protecting Trump, Bannon, billionaires, insiders, congressional Republicans. The whole ecosystem of the rich and connected who orbited Epstein (and yes, there are likely Democrats on that list, too, and they should be held accountable).
The Consequences
If Trump completely loses the conspiracy theory part of the base—the true believers who thought he was going to burn it all down—then he's toast. Not just in the midterms, where he’s already struggling, but in the long game. Because that idea that he was different? That he would break the mold, challenge the system, create a coalition that could last decades, give people something to believe? It’s dying in real time.
He’s mismanaging this worse than anything I’ve seen before. He’s usually a master at slithering out of these messes because his control over the Republican Party is so absolute, but if this part of his base abandons him, the GOP establishment won’t be afraid of him anymore.
Not this time.
Now, he may figure out a way out. Someone’s going to get thrown under the bus, for sure—likely Pam Bondi, maybe Kash Patel or Dan Bongino—but it won’t be enough. The damage is real. And it might be permanent.
Now, these people aren’t going to become Democrats overnight. I’m not naive. But they might disengage. They might go, “Screw this. I bought it. I believed. And I got this!?”
And that disillusionment is contagious. Because this whole ecosystem—of influencers, of MAGA leaders, of Trump-aligned politicians—has been built on this exact kind of bullshit. And now Trump is the one covering for Epstein. Trump is the establishment. Trump is the deep state.
That’s how it feels to them.
And if they start tuning out? If they stay home in 2026 and 2028?
Then Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are dead.
