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BiasForAction · M
CedricH · 22-25, M
@ElwoodBlues If it were to be blocked there‘d be basically no spending cuts, after all, those would have do go through the ordinary budget or appropriations process which means Democrats could veto any major spending cuts.
At the same time, the TCJA would mostly expire which would substantially increase federal revenues with a considerable effect on the US economy, likely precipitating a short and mild recession.
Still, it’s absolutely defensible to oppose the bill on distributional or fiscal grounds.
At the same time, the TCJA would mostly expire which would substantially increase federal revenues with a considerable effect on the US economy, likely precipitating a short and mild recession.
Still, it’s absolutely defensible to oppose the bill on distributional or fiscal grounds.
ElwoodBlues · M
@CedricH I don't know all the details of the budget reconciliation process. If this BBB fails maybe it's the only reconciliation this year. But if they abort it before final vote, maybe they could try in the autumn for a more modest bill with fewer spending cuts and a smaller tax increase.
CedricH · 22-25, M
@ElwoodBlues It‘ll pass. I‘m fairly confident that it‘ll pass. They have the votes. But if it doesn’t, they could just try again after the Summer recess. Congressional rules basically say that you can pass one reconciliation bill a year.
It‘s because the reconciliation process is tied to the annual budget resolution and there’s only one budget resolution each year.
The second half of this year is probably reserved for the actual budget/appropriations for FY2026. That’s quite an effort in and of itself.
It‘s because the reconciliation process is tied to the annual budget resolution and there’s only one budget resolution each year.
The second half of this year is probably reserved for the actual budget/appropriations for FY2026. That’s quite an effort in and of itself.
MasterLee · 56-60, M
The original bill looked good but since then unelected bureaucrats stripped out too much and added too much pork.
CedricH · 22-25, M
@MasterLee You‘re probably referring to the Senate parliamentarian. She‘s added nothing, she‘s just removed certain provisions that were either struck entirely or revised because they were inconsistent with the reconciliation process that Republicans use to avoid the filibuster so they can pass the bill with 50 votes.
So she essentially removed extraneous provisions that had no major budgetary effect.
That process is pretty important because otherwise a Democratic administration could just declare that raising the minimum wage to $15 could be fit into a reconciliation bill. They tried that back in 2021/22. The Senate parliamentarian rebuffed them.
So if Democrats had wanted to raise the minimum wage, they would’ve had to get 60 votes in the Senate which is structurally impossible for them for the foreseeable future. The Senate definitely tilts toward a persistent Republican majority simply because there are more red states than blue states.
So she essentially removed extraneous provisions that had no major budgetary effect.
That process is pretty important because otherwise a Democratic administration could just declare that raising the minimum wage to $15 could be fit into a reconciliation bill. They tried that back in 2021/22. The Senate parliamentarian rebuffed them.
So if Democrats had wanted to raise the minimum wage, they would’ve had to get 60 votes in the Senate which is structurally impossible for them for the foreseeable future. The Senate definitely tilts toward a persistent Republican majority simply because there are more red states than blue states.