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Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says

A preliminary classified U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report says the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, according to officials familiar with the findings.

The early findings conclude that the strikes over the weekend set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months, the officials said.

Before the attack, U.S. intelligence agencies had said that if Iran tried to rush to making a bomb, it would take about three months. After the U.S. bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program was delayed less than six months.

The report also said much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes.

The White House took issue with the assessment. Karoline Leavitt, a White House spokeswoman, said it was “flat-out wrong.”

“The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” she said in a statement. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

But in fact, Leavitt is sounding more like the Ayatollahs. Post-action reports are designed to assess and provide feedback that may inform future decisions, weapon design and battle planning. No, Ms Leavitt, no one knows what happens when an weapon that has never been tested during actual combat, is dropped. This is EXACTLY why you assess the damage and learn.

Initial Israeli damage assessments have also raised questions of the effectiveness of the strikes. Israeli defense officials said they have also collected evidence that the underground facilities at Fordo were not destroyed.
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And even if you DID know the weapon, you still don't know what actual damage occurred if (as in this case) some target components are moved, removed, etc., even within a complex.

There's a reason we have the phrases "confirmed kills / hits / losses / <etc.>".

Very good.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@SomeMichGuy Look for Iran to retialiate in the simplest way possible. A few suicide attacks on soft military targets or gunmen in theatres or shopping centres in America,. 😷
@whowasthatmaskedman Oh, they certainly don't need to use any precious enriched U for retaliation.
SW-User
Why does all of this sound so vaguely familiar with that little dust-up between the USA and Iraq about 30 years ago and the alleged stockpile of weapons of mass destruction that Iraq possessed but which never materialized?

The problem is, Iran will not view these most recent findings from that bombing raid as being a great relief that nothing was actually destroyed underground.

Instead, Iran will still view this debacle as America's unprovoked declaration of an illegal war on Iran and Iran will still respond to Trump and all Americans in the same way that Iran would have done, even if everything HAD BEEN destroyed as planned.

In an Iranian's mind, it's the thought that counts... and America's thought was carried out, but failed to produce America's desired results. Whether an attack was made and everything destroyed, or an attack was made and nothing was destroyed, in Iranian culture, both situations are one in the same.

The good news for Iran is that they don't have to re-paint and re-plaster their nuke storage facility!

The bad news for America is that Americans can no longer leave their own country and travel safely to Europe or to the Middle East in particular, for at least the next 5 years.

In Sweden we have an old saying... it's called "nailing your coffin lid closed from the inside", which is what the USA and Israel just did to themselves.

To all my MAGA-American friends, that's what happens when the guy you Elect to be your worthy President doesn't think the details all the way through to the end before he acts alone in the night.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@SW-User I agree. And there is one more complicating factor. Iran is not an Arab nation or Culture. (Just ask any Iranian) They are Persians, descendants of Alexander the great. (Who was macedonian, but lets not spoil the story.) They support a different Franchise of Islam as different as Catholic from Protestant. And generally regard Arab cultures as to be looked down on..So America believing it can deal with Iran in the way it deals with other UAE cultures is a mistake of the first order. but Trump will find that out and blame Biden..😷
SW-User
@whowasthatmaskedman
Amazing insight. I wonder if the US knew about any of those cultural differences before they tried to impose their western values on those Persian and Arab cultures?
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@SW-User The intelligence community have been familiar for decades.. of Course trump knows better..
trollslayer · 51-55, M
Bumbles · 56-60, M
Obama was right.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
Yeah. But it got Trump a headline.. So the mission was a complete success...😷
Vin53 · M
Iran: "Hey, you scratched my anchor!"

Obscure?
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