Housing prices predicted to fall over the next 2 years. People won’t be happy about that, even though they’ve been begging for it.

Photo above - "Toto . . . Zillow says that home prices are about to fall, and we can finally move out of Auntie Em's and into a place of our own . . . "

President Trump might soon achieve what has eluded Fed Chairman Jerome Powell over the past 11 years – affordable housing. Well, affordable-ish. Prices might decline 2% this year according to Zillow. See link below.

Yes, this is the SAME Zillow that almost went bankrupt a couple of years ago. Because their brainiacs couldn’t predict housing prices, and ended betting the farm trying buy up “undervalued” homes and flipping them to investors and budding Airbnb tycoons. That crash and burn episode cost Zillow 25% of their headcount and all their free cash.

Fed Chairman Powell has been playing mumbly-peg with interest rates since he was nominated to the fed in 2014 by President Obama. As “Jerry” likes to remind anyone, “I can’t be fired”. Well, Trump is again threatening to do just that, so we’ll see where it goes this time.

In any case, anyone who ALREADY owns a home is probably happy with the past decades’ outlandish housing inflation. Anyone who is a renter (or homeless) . . . well not so much.

More people own homes than rent, so you'd think there would be huge delight at skyrocketing housing costs. But the 60% of people who statistically own a home - that's a number which only applies to whoever is the primary breadwinner is in that household. Non-earning adults (spouses, partners, adult children, brother-in-laws down on their luck) probably don’t agree with the head of household on home inflation. In fact, the breadwinning head of households might even want lower home prices – and mortgage rates – if it means they can get rid of their brothers in law and adult babies without turning it into a fiasco.

This is a complicated situation. When housing prices do go down, Zillow is going to blame and/or credit Trump. Fed Chairman Powell, being the incoherent and over credentialed government bureaucrat he is, will probably be torn between two impulses: (a) taking credit, and shouting “success” from the podium at some press conference, or (b) going “oh shit” to himself, and resigning, to let Trump blow in the wind.

Housing prices were already falling, even before Trump put huge tariffs on everything from Gazpacho soup to Brazil nuts. People are fleeing hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, wildfires, spiraling real estate taxes, and soaring electric bills. Even trending retirement locations like Ashville, North Carolina can fall out of favor after a single hurricane party. Property-Casuality insurance companies are going to milk this trend for all its worth, and ratchet up nationwide rate increases, until congress starts holding hearings. None of this will make housing affordable again, of course.

Last month, Zillow was still trumpeting even more soaring home prices. In just 30 days they’ve done a 180 degree U-turn, and are saying the opposite. Hmmm . . let’s agree that they're not the smartest guys in the room. And not a credible source of info. In fact, Zillow might even be worse than Jerome Powell.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Zillow turns full-blown housing market bear—just look at its new forecast - Fast Company

Zillow to exit its home buying business and cut 25% of staff | CNN Business