Europe has a choice: nukes now ... or learn to speak Russian.
Europe has two years, perhaps three at most, to arm itself sufficiently to have a chance to repel a Russian conventional military attack without the assistance of the United States before Russia's military recovers from the war in Ukraine. That's probably the amount of time they'll have to build a credible survivable nuclear retailiatory capability if the U.S. nuclear umbrella were to no longer provide them with protection.
I've already proposed that the Royal Navy re-fit their Astute-class nuclear-powered submarines, which can carry Tomahawk cruise missiles, with nuclear-armed Tomahawks. They'd have a range of 900 nautical miles (1,600 kilometers).
The Royal Navy isn't due to replace their Vanguard-class boomers until 2030s. The U.K.'s entire nuclear deterrent is sub-based. Britain currently keeps at least one Vanguard at sea at all times, but there are only four of them. One of them could turn most of Russia into a radioactive wasteland.
The French have both an air-based and sub-based nuclear deterrent, if you can even call it a deterrent. With only four subs and generally only one at sea like the British, the Russians will hunt those down quickly in a pre-emptive strike. And Putin's hypersonic missiles will give the French little time to get the birds in the air. France could also face a submarine-launched ballistic missle attack from both the North Sea, the Atlantic coast and/or the Med.
To be blunt, Europe cannot count on "regime change" in the U.S. political landscape in 2028. And Putin may elect to strike while Trump is still in office, knowing the U.S. will be indecisive at best on intervention.
The time to start building a survivable nuclear retailiatory capability is now. The most survivable and most cost-effective way is with nuclear-powered submarines that can hide from Russian attack subs. But in the short-term, due to the length of time to build them, would be to have round-the-clock nuclear bombers in the air so as not to be caught on the ground in a bolt-out-of-the-blue strike. That will scare the hell out of their citizens though. So the Europeans need to do more to publicize the daily near-incursions into European airspace by the Ruskies.
Other nations should reconsider their non-nuke stance, particularly Poland, since the country would be the prime first target of a Russian advance west from Belarus and occupied-Ukraine.
I've already proposed that the Royal Navy re-fit their Astute-class nuclear-powered submarines, which can carry Tomahawk cruise missiles, with nuclear-armed Tomahawks. They'd have a range of 900 nautical miles (1,600 kilometers).
The Royal Navy isn't due to replace their Vanguard-class boomers until 2030s. The U.K.'s entire nuclear deterrent is sub-based. Britain currently keeps at least one Vanguard at sea at all times, but there are only four of them. One of them could turn most of Russia into a radioactive wasteland.
The French have both an air-based and sub-based nuclear deterrent, if you can even call it a deterrent. With only four subs and generally only one at sea like the British, the Russians will hunt those down quickly in a pre-emptive strike. And Putin's hypersonic missiles will give the French little time to get the birds in the air. France could also face a submarine-launched ballistic missle attack from both the North Sea, the Atlantic coast and/or the Med.
To be blunt, Europe cannot count on "regime change" in the U.S. political landscape in 2028. And Putin may elect to strike while Trump is still in office, knowing the U.S. will be indecisive at best on intervention.
The time to start building a survivable nuclear retailiatory capability is now. The most survivable and most cost-effective way is with nuclear-powered submarines that can hide from Russian attack subs. But in the short-term, due to the length of time to build them, would be to have round-the-clock nuclear bombers in the air so as not to be caught on the ground in a bolt-out-of-the-blue strike. That will scare the hell out of their citizens though. So the Europeans need to do more to publicize the daily near-incursions into European airspace by the Ruskies.
Other nations should reconsider their non-nuke stance, particularly Poland, since the country would be the prime first target of a Russian advance west from Belarus and occupied-Ukraine.
36-40, F
