I’m updating my 2025 stock market predictions . . . Sell, Sell, Sell !!!

Photo above - "Hey, I just had an idea . . . "

A few weeks ago I predicted that 2025 would be a down year for US markets. Not “crash of 1929” down, but a retreat driven by irrational exuberance and growing problems rolling over the balance of our world-crushing $36 trillion national debt. (The USA has borrowed more than the next 10 nations combined).

I’d like a do-over on that prediction. There ARE some stocks I’d sell, if I actually owned them (full disclosure – I probably do, as part of an S&P 500 index fund). But I don’t believe I own any of these companies individually. Why am I taking the opposite view of that $100 million dollar talking head Jim Cramer?

Because government price controls are about to be debated in the Senate. (see link below).

If I asked you to name the Senate’s most clueless, least financially savvy member, a lot of readers would get this right. Yep, Bernie Sanders. He’s an independent, or socialist, or student activist helping Castro harvest sugar cane in Cuba, depending on what day you look at him. He thinks banks ought to be restricted – by law – from charging more than 10% interest. But just for 5 years, until the economy is destroyed, and a democrat can occupy the White House. Bernie isn’t proposing a permanent cap.

What happens if he gets his wish? (don’t worry, he won’t)

An immediate sell off on US bank stocks. Wave goodbye to Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, American Express, Wells Fargo, Capital One . . . I guarantee that these are prominently included the index weightings. They immediately exit the credit card business, and more than half their earnings evaporate as well.

In this “everything must go” scenario, what’s next? Big box retailers like Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowes, Amazon, Target, WalMart. That’s where we buy our refrigerators, washing machines, and QLED televisions. On credit. Nobody pays cash for these things unless they’re an NFL starting quarterback, or is spent 18 months on an “Era’s Tour” which grossed over $1 trillion.

I’d sell the big appliance makers themselves, but I think those things are all made overseas now. Samsung, LG, Haier, Bosch, Sony . . . Whirlpool (which also owns the Maytag brand now) is still a US corporation, but they’re pretty far down the sales list. Whirlpool currently is operating at a net loss already. Nobody goes to Best Buy and asks “show me the latest Whirlpool refrigerator”.

Airlines, Hotels, and Cruise ships. These all get charged to credit cards. My last hotel stay (in Eastchester NY) was over $500 for one night at a two-star “Springhill Suites”. There was an 8% room tax included, plus a mandatory $25 parking fee. $39 for breakfast for 2, since there were no alternatives in walking distance. So I’d be selling Marriot, Hilton, and Wyndham. American Airlines, Delta, Southwest, and United. Enterprise, Avis, Hertz .

I’d sell Disney, Vail Resorts, MGM Grand, Caesars Entertainment, Carnival Cruises, Royal Caribbean.

You might also want to get rid of anything to do with bathroom remodeling, kitchen remodeling, new decks/patios, roofing replacement, HVAC replacement, furniture . . .

Okay, okay . . . I realize that I actually HAVE just defined what a stock market crash and recession look like. But as I said, nobody takes Bernie Sanders seriously. Not even Bernie himself. If he did, he'd have made this proposal during the Biden administration.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Sens. Hawley, Sanders Propose 10% Cap on Credit Card Rates | Newsmax.com

LeopoldBloom · M

Hawley and Sanders, now there’s an odd couple.

Has Sanders ever had any of his proposed legislation passed? LBJ he’s not.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@LeopoldBloom he would be the first to tell you he's "a tree shaker, not a jelly maker".

that's how Jesse Jackson describes himself too.

Do we really want a tree shaker as president? Sanders ran twice. Trumps probably a tree shaker too, although I'm impressed by how much traction he and musk are getting in court on reducing headcount and expense.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@LeopoldBloom i won't pretend to have a done a deep dive on Patel or Gabbard. Both have their rabid opponents, and rabid fans.

I'm watching to see which laws get broken. So far only Hegseth seems to be blowing it. He's been benched, and Rubio is leading the Ukraine "peace talks now".

if that deal succeeds, Trump will catch a lot of blowback from democrats who want to ignore the nostrum that "ceasefires/peace treaties simply ratify the land already occupied". There's no way Russia is going to give anything back. A "swap" is a face saving measure for everyone involved.

we wouldn't be having this conversation if NATO had declared a "no fly zone" over Ukraine on day one of the war. To protect adjacent NATO member states' airspaces.

Shoot down each and every drone and missile. If that doesn't work, start bombing the launch sites.

we've had nato for more than 60 years. Spent trillions on it. Never used it. This is EXACTLY what is was proposed for - to repel a soviet invasion of another country.

Biden doesn't bear all the blame. He's elderly and easily confused. So was the west wing staff. They got snookered by Germany, which continues to buy Russian oil and natural gas. Germany is the reason NATO wasn't activated. They want the heat and lights to stay on.