BREAKING NEWS: Lastest Des Moines Register Poll: Kamala Harris leads Trump by Four Points in Iowa.

@windinhishair What's weird this election season is we keep seeing polls from red states like FL & TX showing the trump margin is greatly reduced or, as in Iowa, erased. So why isn't the same shift appearing in the major swing states?

Mich, Wisc, Penn, Georgia, Arizona - all 10 to 20 EVs - were dead heats 4 years ago. How can they still be dead heats? Something is weird and I don't know what. I would not have thought independent polling numbers could be manipulated.

My gut says high turnouts always favor dems. My gut says women will make an electoral landslide for Harris, but I can't take anything for granted.

@ElwoodBlues
It's because of the amount of money the campaigns are pouring into the swing states. It's also why Trump's numbers may end up slightly better in California and New York than they were in 2020.

It's not just the ads, it's the ground game. Offices, staff, volunteers, etc.

@ElwoodBlues A significant number of pollsters from 2020 have dropped out of polling, and there are new ones with very limited track records. Many of the new ones appear to have a Republican/Trump bias. When these polls get averaged in with the other polls, they cancel out or override any Harris advantage, giving the illusion of a tie race.

Harris has been leading in national polls now by 3 to 5 points or more, and that has been pretty consistent the past couple of months. If you look at some of the older pollsters with a Trump bias, like Rasmussen, they are consistently showing Trump with a 2 point advantage nationally, and in many swing states. Rasmussen consistently tilted Trump in 2016 and 2020 by 5 to 8 points. If you correct their national and swing state polling by the same amount this time, their numbers are right in line with what other pollsters are showing: a Harris advantage by a couple of points.

The shift toward Harris in actual votes versus polling is therefore likely systemic, and her true support underestimated by a couple of points. I don't have to tell you that the end result is that she will win more of the swing states than she loses, and perform better than expected in states like Florida, Texas, Ohio, etc. I don't think she will win in a landslide, but I do think she will win. I'm projecting 292 electoral votes for Harris and 246 for Trump when all is said and done. And I would take the over on that projection.

I also think there is at least an even chance that Cancun Cruz will lose he re-election bid, and we will have the first statewide Texas Democrat elected since the early 1990s.

Hang on to your hat.

@eli1601

Des Monies Register is considered the most reputable poll in Iowa.

@beckyromero "The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today," the statement continued. "I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me."

Donald Trump carried the state for a third time, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits.