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The 'Gender Gap,' in a Word, Is "Huge"

The gender gap is, in a word, "huge."

In a new NBC News poll, women's support for Harris was at 58 percent, 21 points ahead of Trump's 37 percent.

The survey was conducted among 1,000 registered voters, between September 13 and 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Conversely, Trump has a 12-point lead over Harris among men, with 52 percent supporting him and 40 percent backing Harris.

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https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-lead-among-women-poll-1958524

The overall gender gap (the difference between Harris' support among women and Trump's among men) is 9 points in Harris favor.

Here are that national and state polls from 2020:

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/2020-presidential-gender-gap-poll-tracker#GGN

The ten October 2020 polls showed an average overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 10.6 points.

The National Election Poll conducted by Edison Research for the had Biden win an overall gender gap of 7 points.
Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5% points.

All gender gaps averages and exit polls below are in Biden's favor unless noted otherwise.

The last three October 2020 polls for Pennsylvania showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 8, 10 and 9 points.
Average: 9.0
Exit Poll: 0.0
Biden won the state's popular vote by 1.15% points.

The last three October 2020 polls for Wisconsin showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 5, 11 and 9 points.
Average: 8.3
Exit Poll: 3.0
Biden won the state's popular vote by 0.53% points.

The only October 2020 poll for Michigan showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 11 points.
Average: 11.0
Exit Poll: 4.0
Biden won the state's popular vote by 2.78% points.

The last three October 2020 polls for Georgia showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 8, 12 and 9 points.
Average: 9.7
Exit Poll: 3.0 - Trump
Biden won the state's popular vote by 0.25% points.

The last three October 2020 polls for Arizona showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 11, 8 and 15 points.
Average: 11.3
Exit Poll: 1.0
Biden won the state's popular vote by 0.30% points.

The last three October 2020 polls for Nevada showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 8, 11 and 11 points.
Average: 10.0
Exit Poll: 5.0
Biden won the state's popular vote by 2.39% points.

The last three October 2020 polls for North Carolina showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 13, 11 and 13 points.
Average: 12.3
Exit Poll: 2.0 - Trump
Trump won the state's popular vote by 1.34% points.

The last three October 2020 polls for Florida showed an overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 3, 10 and 5 points.
Average: 6.0
Exit Poll: 7.0 - Trump
Trump won the state's popular vote by 3.36% points.

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In a Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris had a 17-point advantage among women and Trump had a 11-point advantage among men.

That's an overall gender gap of 6 points in Harris' favor.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/gender-gap-harris-trump-pennsylvania-20240927.html

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Keep in mind that not all polls break down their results by gender. Also, the margin for error is higher given that the split a smaller sample size of an overall poll, which is why one should look at more than one poll (and to make sure that the poll is representative of the demographics of the state for a higher confidence level).
beckyromero · 36-40, F
@windinhishair

Covid wrecked some havoc with exit polls, especially given all the early polling.

There may also have been some effects of the "shy Trump voter." That is more likely an effect in the pre-election polls and not in the exit polls.

Still, the National Election Poll conducted by Edison Research for the had Biden win an overall gender gap of 7 points.
Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5% points is pretty spot on when you slice the overall gender gap in half and give Biden a slight boost for more women voting than men.

The ten October 2020 polls showing an average overall gender gap in Biden's favor of 10.6 points is also reflective of the final election vote (again, cut that number in half and you get 5.3, which is only slightly more than Biden' victory of 4.5% points in the popular vote.)

State polls simply have a greater margin for error since there is a smaller sample size.
windinhishair · 61-69, M
Interesting statistics. Since more women vote than men, what do you attribute the difference between polling results and the election? One possible explanation is that there were more men than women who were undecided and who ended up voting for Trump.

 
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