A Tale of Two Polls. Trump Up by 2 in PA... Or Harris Up by 3 in PA?
The weird, or maybe no so weird thing about it, is that the poll that has Trump up by 2 has Democratic incumbent Sen. Casey up by 5 and the poll that has Harris up by 3 ALSO has Casey leading (by 4).
Insider Advantage, the poll which has Tump up by 2, didn't release its internals.
But I suspect that they don't have Trump losing the "Gender Gap" (i.e. the difference between Harris' advantage with women compared to Trump's advantage with men) as badly as in the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.
The poll found a wide gender gap that is benefiting the vice president. Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%, while Trump tops male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%, according to the poll. Harris edged Trump among Pennsylvania's independent voters 43%-38%.
Along with Harris' statewide edge over Trump, she leads in Erie and Northampton counties – two bellwether counties that have historically predicted who carries the state – separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls of both found.
Harris leads in Northampton County, which includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem in East Pennsylvania, 50%-45% over Trump. Biden carried Northampton 50%-49% in the 2020 election. Trump carried Northampton 50%-46% over Clinton in 2016.
In Northwest Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 48%-44% in Erie County, where Biden in 2020 won 50%-49% and Trump in 2016 won 49%-47%.
Yet the common denominator in both counties and Pennsylvania as a whole is Harris' dominance with female voters.
"This is female-gender advantage on steroids," said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump's edge among men."
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/16/harris-trump-pennsylvania-poll/75236006007/
Insider Advantage, the poll which has Tump up by 2, didn't release its internals.
But I suspect that they don't have Trump losing the "Gender Gap" (i.e. the difference between Harris' advantage with women compared to Trump's advantage with men) as badly as in the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.
The poll found a wide gender gap that is benefiting the vice president. Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%, while Trump tops male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%, according to the poll. Harris edged Trump among Pennsylvania's independent voters 43%-38%.
Along with Harris' statewide edge over Trump, she leads in Erie and Northampton counties – two bellwether counties that have historically predicted who carries the state – separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls of both found.
Harris leads in Northampton County, which includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem in East Pennsylvania, 50%-45% over Trump. Biden carried Northampton 50%-49% in the 2020 election. Trump carried Northampton 50%-46% over Clinton in 2016.
In Northwest Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 48%-44% in Erie County, where Biden in 2020 won 50%-49% and Trump in 2016 won 49%-47%.
Yet the common denominator in both counties and Pennsylvania as a whole is Harris' dominance with female voters.
"This is female-gender advantage on steroids," said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump's edge among men."
---
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/16/harris-trump-pennsylvania-poll/75236006007/
36-40, F
