“Greatest bubble in human history close to bursting” claims attention seeking mutual fund manager.

[i]Chart above - 60 years of stock market performance. Will it all end in tears?[/i]

Well, maybe the stock market will go down. It always does, at some point. I’ve been a skeptic since 2016, when Trump was elected. So I’ve been wrong for 8 years now, and the market is up. But when a “black swan” investor starts screaming that this is the worst bubble in all of history, everyone’s BS detectors should start going off. (see link below)

First of all, I can name a bunch of “bubbles” which were the worst in history. Dutch Tulips. The 1929 US stock market. Confederate war bonds. Zimbabwe currency futures. Want more? I can do this all day.

Mark Spitznagel, a self described “black swan investor” is trying to drum up business for his bearish mutual fund Universa Investments. It’s an LLP, so it doesn’t have disclose its own financial inner workings. Spitznagel claims his fund had a 3,621% gain as of March 2020. The Wall Street Journal tracked Universa’s strategies and came up with a more down to earth 12% compounded return. Oh well . . .

Wait, it gets better. Universa’s “strategy” involves simultaneously buying puts and calls – not actual stocks – multiple times a minute. And Spitznagle was accused of triggering the 2010 stock market “flash crash” by trying to take advantage of split second pricing differences between those puts and calls. The SEC has since reigned in this sort of hypersonic gamesmanship, as probably contrary to the interests of 401K holders, IRA account holders, ordinary investors, federally insured banks, and the stability of the entire nation. Oh well . .

Mr. Spitznagel will get his market crash eventually. But I’m the wrong person to predict when, since I’ve been a skeptic about how inflation, record federal debt, homelessness results in lasting prosperity. Clearly, I don’t know $hit about the market, since I’m holding more cash (CDs paying 5.x%) than mutual funds. I don’t want the market to crash. I just can’t see what’s propping it up. It’s not todays deficit spending, and it won’t be an upcoming increase in tariffs on imported goods. If anyone can make a case for 2025 and beyond resulting more huge market gains, please explain your rationale.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

~'Greatest Bubble in Human History' Close to Bursting, Spitznagel Says - Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)~

~Universa Investments - Wikipedia~

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

I am one of those who has been predicting this almighty crash for years and by the laws of Economics it should have happened. But I can see why it has not. Adam Smiths invisible hand and Freedmans free market work perfectly. Until someobe puts their fingers on the scale to "improve things" a little and then the whole thing goes to "merde". And while every country does it, America are the kings of the game.. To the point where the rest of the world is looking are not picking America for their team in trade and Trump is playinbg Cartman, announcing "$crew you guys. I'm going home" Now whan the wheels actually fall off Americas little red wagon depends on which side does their thing first. Either way, both sides lose and the American people lose more than anyone else.😷

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@whowasthatmaskedman rather than invisible hands, i see the budget deficits which accumulated to $34 trillion. the government buys EVERYTHING . . .

groceries
weapons
clothing
apartment buildings
vehicles (they bought half the entire production run of chevy volt hybrids)

and we have "strategic reserves" of everything from peanut butter to cheese to helium.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@SusanInFlorida We are actually on the same side here. How those govt purchases are made really is those fingers on the scale I was talking about. We both know that the reasons for each purchases consider more than need and cost. Any political consideration creates a disturbance in The Force..😷