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Gulf War I. Margaret Thatcher Was Right.

Of course, as I've said before, Margaret Thatcher was right. We should have completely destroyed the Iraqi military.

I blame SecDefDick Cheney and CJCS Gen. Colin Powell for that. They saw the "Highway of Death" and lost their spine. Thank goodness they were nowhere around Normandy in 1944. And of course it was ultimately Pres. George H.W. Bush's decision. Not long before he died, Bush admitted that it might have been a mistake to not have removed Saddam Hussein from power in 1991.

I think the best outcome would have been the total collapse of the Iraqi military and Hussein's capture. Gen. Barry McCaffrey's 24th Infantry Division (Mechanized) would have absolutely destroyed the Republican Guard units as they fled towards Basra. But they were given the order to halt. Thousands of Shias paid would pay the price for that with their lives.

When the "cease-fire" docs were signed, the Iraqi generals asked to discuss POW exchanges. They were in disbelief over the amount of prisoners the coalition had taken. They had no idea themselves of how badly defeated they were. So how could the Iraqi people?

Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf had wanted the Iraqis to sign a surrender onboard the battleship USS Missouri and broadcast it throughout Iraq, so the Iraqi people could see just how badly their leader lost the war. He was overrulled.

The Iraqis asked if the no-fly zone could exclude helicopters because we had destoyed much of their communications ability. They were given permission and then abused that grant by later massacring thousands of Kurds in northern Iraq.

Saddam Hussen should have been put on trial for a whole list of international war crimes, including the use of chemical weapons on Iranian civilian populations.

How might that have effected our relations with Iran? It wouldn't have hurt, that's for sure.

Hung him and be done with it. Then out of Saudi Arabia.

I still believe and will continue to maintain that if we didn't stay in Saudi Arabia once we would have finished Hussein for good, there's a better chance than not of the 9/11 terrorist attacks not happening. Perhaps not the London and Madrid bombings either. Osama bin Laden used U.S. and western Allies presence in Saudi Arabia as a recruiting tool for Al-Qaeda. That would have been denied to him.

Many Brits don't like Thatcher, mostly for her conservative economic policies.

But she was right on about Saddam Hussein.

Aggressors must be stopped, not only stopped, but they must be thrown out. An aggressor cannot gain from his aggression. He must be thrown out and really, by that time in my mind, I thought we ought to throw him out so decisively that he could never think of doing it again. ... Dictators must be stopped. They must not be able to march into other peoples' territory, rule their lives, take away their whole mode of existence and just get away with it.

Sanctions don't work. There's a possibility that we would cut off a lot of the money flowing to Iraq, by cutting out the oil. Sanctions are still on Iraq. They haven't worked now. You have to put sanctions on and make it quite clear that you are doing so, but I'm afraid that there's a great deal of smuggling which goes on across borders. There always is and proof positive is, they don't work, is there still there, and indeed if we hadn't taken action, Kuwait would still have been occupied and the people under the most terrible tyranny.

And of course you know the Iraqis took hostages as they retreated, they took hostages. Not only prisoners of war but hostages. They just gathered them and pulled them out of the house and took them back with them and some of those, I think something like between 500 and 600 of those are still not back at their homes in Kuwait. This is what you are dealing with, this is the sort of person you have to deal with firmly.

It's not enough just to reverse the invasion. If you leave them with an army strong enough to come back and do it again. You've got, as we knew, you've got to destroy their army. We couldn't bring down Saddam Hussein. What I thought it was our job to do, was to make it quite clear to the world and particularly the people who'd been wronged, that he'd been totally and utterly defeated and his army had been totally and utterly defeated. So that he couldn't come back again.

And it didn't seem to me that that part of it was fully achieved. And you know full well they went and attacked the Kurds, they went and attacked the Marsh Arabs and the Republican Guard.

As for going to Bahgdad:

I don't know that it was necessary, I don't know that it was necessary to go onto Baghdad, I wasn't there at the time, nor what changes they made to the rules of engagement. You're asking me views on things er to which I was not privy. But I had after all, I hope, managed as Prime Minister, things reasonably successful before, successfully before, and, just look now. Its not over.

When you're dealing with a dictator, he has got not only to be defeated, well and truly, but he has got to be seen to be defeated.

Half measures never work, you've either got to do the job properly and show the world you're serious so they better not let it happen again. No half measures, just not on.

That would have left Kuwait, an enormous asset, completely in the hands of Saddam Hussein, and the people there, and they weren't being treated well as you know. And you recall some of the scenes on television, I remember them very vividly, there was Saddam Hussein, seeing some of our hostages whom he'd taken, hostages. And patting a charming young boy on the head and saying, we're keeping you here so that your country can't attack us.


I had already seen the Emir of Kuwait and some of his ministers, and made it quite clear that as far as I was concerned, we had to do the job properly and then I just went on television and said, I simply don't understand it. There's Saddam Hussein, a dictator, a man hiding behind the skirts of women and children, what sort of man is that?

Now, the generals in the Gulf, weren't even allowed to take a surrender. I have forgotten what they called it, was it a truce? Those people should have been seen to have been defeated, they should have surrendered their equipment and their armed forces. They knew full well, it had been well treated with us.

And I just didn't understand it, this is how we'd done it in the Falklands and then you have to look after all of the people who you have taken prisoner of war, of course you do, but it could have been done, many of them surrendered of course and came over, but there are a lot that totally got away, including the Republican Army.

So the people of Iraq never saw this dictator, humiliated and beaten.

I think that there were people who said look, Kuwait is free, we've done what we came to do. Let us free it, let us just stop now. What they didn't have any regard to was that the same thing can be done again, unless their army is destroyed.

Now sanctions admittedly are still on, but you couldn't bring down Saddam Hussein directly. You could only bring him down by humiliating him. It was not done. Not even the marvellous battle they'd fought, not even to take a surrender, and I think someone said 100 hours isn't that marvellous, we've done it all in 100 hours. Let's stop now, for the job had not been properly done.

Q: But do you think they did it because of resolution 678--that being ambiguous and unclear as to what the real war aims were.

If you are to stop an aggressor, you not only have to stop him on that occasion. You have to make certain that those who flouted every rule of decent behavior in fighting the war are brought before a tribunal and you also, in fact, have to see that the army surrenders everything they've got, and the people so they cannot do it again.

Q: How do you think this crisis is finally going to be resolved? Do you think the people of Iraq will do it themselves or do you think somehow that the West has got to get rid of Saddam Hussein.

I don't see how the West can, we had the chance to to, to defeat him and make him surrender, I don't think we can. There is a balance of power there, certainly, between Iraq and Iran, very much so and now we are all watching very carefully, what happens to some of the weaponry that is coming out of the former Soviet Union, and obviously there has to be some equipment still kept down the Gulf in case we have to have a look at it again. Now, just look, there is the aggressor, Saddam Hussein, still in power. There is the President of the United States, no longer in power. There is the Prime Minister of Britain who did quite a lot to get things there, no longer in power. I wonder who won?

Q: Do you think we betrayed the Kurds?

I think the public opinion was very strong at the time and it was public opinion which virtually insisted that these people must in fact be guarded, and indeed they were, but the problem still isn't fully solved and indeed, in addition you have the Marsh Muslims who lived in the marshlands in the south of Iraq. Their rights haven't been properly regarded either.

You see so much of the problems we are dealing with now, comes from the end of World War I.

The German empire collapsed. The Austrio-Hungarian empire collapsed. The Turkish empire collapsed and the British empire went on and also the French empire did, but right down the heart of the whole of Europe were countries with strange names, which were put together artificially and so, Czechoslovakia came into existence and so because of the collapse of the Turkish empire, Palestine was put together and we the Britons were given a mandate to have regard to that.

And, because the Turkish empire again had collapsed, the pieces of Iraqi, administrative areas from the Turkish empire were put together, merely because they'd been administrative regions and they were put together and called Iraq. And all of the countries, the Balkans, many of them were put together and called Yugoslavia, and we're still suffering from the un-wisdom of some of those events, and we still haven't sorted it all out.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/oral/thatcher/1.html

---


But when giving President Richard Nixon's eulogy, former SecState Henry Kissinger said:

He drew strength from a conviction he often expressed to me:

"The price for doing things halfway is no less than for doing it completely; so we might as well do them properly."

(I'm sure that Kissinger cleaned-up the language a little bit.)

---

And of course there was Marshal Ferdinand Foch's warning about the Treaty of Versailles.

This is not Peace. It is an Armistice for twenty years.

He was off by one year.
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Burnley123 · 41-45, M
Thatcher was wrong on most things.

This was originally made by you in response to criticism that you still support the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Despite it being (correctly) understood as a disaster by almost everyone.
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Burnley123

Yes, I do maintain that it was the right thing to do.

But it was screwed up by VPDick Cheney and SecState Colin Powell. 🤔 See the pattern there?

Throw in SecDef Don Rumsfeld and Paul Bremer disarming the Iraqi army so as to not have to pay them (disarm them yes, NOT pay them to remain in uniform? Hell no! That made them unemployed and sent them right into the hands of ISIS and other terrorist groups).

Rumsfeld is the same guy who, just a few months before 9/11, had wanted to reduce our carrier fleet to SIX - one fewer than we had on the morning of December 7th, 1941.

Cheap-cheap-cheap!

Oh, the Northern Alliance they said can take care of catching Osama bin Laden.

They couldn't find their backside with both hands!

Cheap-cheap-cheap!
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@beckyromero That the reconstruction was handled abysmally is not a contentious issue.

Would a competent imperialist invasion have worked. The evidence from other places (like Vietnam and Afghanistan) suggest otherwise.
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Burnley123

Our efforts in post-war Germany and Japan would suggest it would have worked if it had been handled competently.

I do not believe that the majority of Iraqis would have reacted any differently than the Germans and Japanese when realizing it was Saddam Hussein who suppressed their rights and economic well-being.

We could have (just as we should have after the Soviet pullout of Afghanistan) built hospitals, schools, roadways, electrical plants, dams (oh the environmentalist are screaming about that, but I doubt most of them live in a desert).

And WE should have re-wrote the Iraqi constitution to give strong equal rights to women as we did with Japan.

Article 14
All of the people are equal under the law and there shall be no discrimination in political, economic or social relations because of race, creed, sex, social status or family origin.

Instead, the Iraqi constitution calls, "to pay attention to women and their rights."
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@beckyromero WW2 analogy again?

I've sparred with you for so many years that the same arguments go in again.

Fear of Soviet Russia, guilt for the holocaust and a desire to build a new liberal country made Germany a very different situation. To do that to an Islamic country steeped in opposition to western imperialism...

They also genuinely free elections and a government that was not a puppet.

It's also part of a different era. We are now almost eighty years after, so it's hardly a relevent example.

It's a really basic understanding of geopolitics if every single conflict is compared to WW2.
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Burnley123
WW2 analogy again?

You skipped right over Japan, which is the better case of the two.

Other than the Weimar Republican, what sort of "free elections" did Germany have in its history?

Or Japan, where women did not have the right to vote until Gen. MacArthur demanded it?

YES, post-World War II. Because it WORKED.

Do something that WORKED before trying to pinch pennies.

1991 was 46 years after WW2.

2001 was 56 years after WW2.

Dang. Stop taking math courses from Trump University! 😉 (So sorry about that, but you know I couldn't resist. Please take it as a teasing joke.)

It's also part of a different era. We are now almost eighty years after, so it's hardly a relevent example.

WWII is a revelant example because it matters not that it is now "almost eighty years after." What matters in that discussion is what could have been done 46 or 56 years after events that makes it relevant. (And, mind you, after different ways of doing things FAILED abysmally in Korea and Vietnam.)
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@beckyromero I said it was eighty years from now.. I think you take history courses from John Bolton university
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Burnley123

Touché.

But it's more of reading and studying Wilson, FDR, Churchill and MacArthur.
Bumbles · 51-55, M
@Burnley123 @beckyromero

I can’t resist. I was a supporter of Gulf War II. I saw it as a moral question regarding taking out Sadaam Hussein. I read about the torture chambers, the crimes by the sons, etc. I believed and trusted Colin Powell.

At the time I didn’t know the difference between Shia or Sunni. The CIA did. I supported the war for a while, but by the time “The Surge” came around, I was angry that I had been lied to about WMDs and that people who should have know what was going to happen didn’t stop it, or at least try.

I’ve yet to hear anything about the CIA briefing Bush, Cheney, Powell, and Rice to say “This thing is going to explode. Think Tito dying.”

US Foreign policy has never recovered, especially among Republicans, who now mostly oppose aid to Ukraine. Once Trump is in office aid for Ukraine will run dry. You can blame the neo-cons, but we Dems went along, too. Did no one know the difference between Sunni and Shia? Sadaam did. He should have warned us.
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Bumbles

The Sunnis are a minority in Iraq. That's where most of Hussein's support was.

The Shia are mostly in the south and west, closer to Iran. Basra is a large city; it is there that the Republican Guards committed massacres when the first Gulf War ended.

The Kurdish region is mostly to the north around Mosul and close to Turkey. More massacres of civilians occured up there.

I'm sure that was explained to the public during Gulf War I.

I was in high school during Gulf War II. We knew all this.

I think removing Hussein from power was the right thing to do. Read any reports about what his regime did to political prisoners and how can one conclude otherwise? He had used chemical weapons on Iranian and Kurdish civilians. He had invaded Kuwait. He launched missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and Israel. He took civilian hostages. And he flaunted UN-ordered weapons inspections.
Bumbles · 51-55, M
@beckyromero Well, I suppose I could have been clearer about not just general differences/regions but that they would be willing to blow each other up to make their point. The CIA knew or should have known that taking out Hussein would lead to a civil war of absolute savagery.

As I said, I supported removing Hussein for the reasons you describe. Looking back, I can't see the deaths, injuries, and damage to US policy as being "worth it." The casualty figures are astronomic, as I am sure you know. I don't come to my opinion lightly, but after all these years it is where I land.

PS, Rumsfeld's physical resemblance to McNamara should have been a sign. 🫡
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Bumbles
Well, I suppose I could have been clearer about not just general differences/regions but that they would be willing to blow each other up to make their point. The CIA knew or should have known that taking out Hussein would lead to a civil war of absolute savagery.

But you are referring to Gulf War II. I am talking about removing Hussein in 1991 and the failure of doing so leading to Gulf War II.
Bumbles · 51-55, M
@beckyromero Lol, my bad. Was reading and at work at the same time, but no excuse. That being said, Bush was right. Your position reminds me a little of people who think in WW2 the US should have taken Berlin and marched onto Moscow.

I say a little because obviously that is a ridiculous position, but the point is similar.

The coalition Bush put together was brilliant and would not have been possible had his aims have been to take down Hussein. The mission was indeed accomplished.
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Bumbles
Your position reminds me a little of people who think in WW2 the US should have taken Berlin and marched onto Moscow.

Well, not Moscow. The Soviets were our Allies.

But we certainly could have taken Berlin had Operation Market Garden succeeded and forced a German surrender by the end of 1944, January 1945 at the latest.

https://similarworlds.com/politics/4861654-What-If-Montys-Operation-Market-Garden-Had-Succeeded

The coalition Bush put together was brilliant and would not have been possible had his aims have been to take down Hussein

We didn't need as large a coalition once we had the UN Security Council Resolutions in place. The Soviets and Chinese would not have cared whether or not Egypt joined the coalition.

Besides us (U.S.), there was the U.K., France, Canada, Australia, Italy, Spain and some 30+ others.

But, seriously, we were going to lose without the help of Argentina and Bangladesh?

The excuse for not toppling Hussein was the Arab nations wouldn't have gone along.

Which ones? Saudi Arabia? Nope. Kuwait? Nope.

A few Muslim nations would have objected. But they would not have been essential to an overall plan to rid the world of Hussein.

That argument (that we couldn't toppled Hussein for fear a few nations wouldn't support the idea) is like saying that had Argentina, Brazil, and Chile objected to a unconditional surrender demand for Japan, we wouldn't have dropped the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Bumbles · 51-55, M
@beckyromero Market Garden was a bridge too far it seems.

Okay, the coalition Bush put together for Iraq 1 was insignificant…I don’t think you’ll get the nod for Secretary of State soon, but so it goes.
beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Bumbles

I think when you are going to be fighting a war, the position of Secretary of State is not as important as the military leadership.

When WW II is discussed, how much credit is given to Cordell Hull?

Operation Market Garden nearly succeeded.
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beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP
@Bumbles

Why on Earth would you think that the reason we shouldn't have gone to Baghdad in 1991 was for fear the "Arab" coalition wouldn't have supported it (because the Islamic radicals in those countries would go nuts and undermine "friendly" governments because of a permament U.S. military presence in Arab lands), but those same Islamic radicals wouldn't go nuts AFTER the war when we kept a permament military presence in Arab lands?

I do not believe that just because the aftermath of Gulf War II "went to shit" that that would have happened going to Bahgdad in Gulf War I.

Having over 500,000 troops in the field is different than having 160,000.

Seeking out the entire Iraqi military apparatus and methodically destroying it is different than a mechanized calvarly charge to Baghdad.

The Powell Doctrine left us with a permanent military presence in Saudi Arabia, which would have been unneccesary had we toppled Hussein in 1991.

It is that presence that gave rise to Osama bin Laden (his expulsion from Saudi Arabia was because of his outspoken opposition to continued U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia after the cease-fire in Gulf War I) and resulted in a "No Fly Zone" over the United States in 9/11/2001 instead of the one which was over Iraq for a decade because we didn't completely destroy Iraq's air force and mechanized divisions in 1991.

I don't believe that after the surrender of Japan they were allowed to keep flying kamikaze missions, were they? Did we need a "no fly zone" over Germany after its surrender in May 1945? Was the Luftwaffe allowed to still fly around in German skies?

The San Francisco Peace Treaty was signed on September 8, 1951 and formally ended the occupation of Japan effective the following April, six and a half years after the worst war in the history of humankind ended.

We couldn't have been done with Iraq sooner than that?

You brought up Gen. Powell.

Just remember that you are also in 100% agreement with SecDef Dick Cheney.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2002/10/more-on-why-cheney-didn-t-want-to-go-to-baghdad-the-last-time.html

You're doing a bit of revisionist history with all due respect.

Is there any other way of analyzing history?

As George Santayana said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

We seem to agree on:

(1) Kicking the Iraqi military out of Kuwait in 1991

Where we seem to disagree on is that I believe we should have:

(a) completely oblierated the Iraqi airforce and mechanized army divisions, most importantly the Republican Guard units

(b) forced an Iraqi unconditional surrender broadcast throughout Iraq, perhaps requiring that Hussein himself sign the surrender in order to show the Iraqi people what a humiliating defeat he brought upon their nation

(c) removed Hussein and his cohorts from power

(d) had international war crime trials for those butchers (including for using chemical weapons on Iranian civilians, thus try to rebuild some U.S. good-will towards the people of that nation)

(e) helped to rebuild Iraqi infrastructure damaged during the war (mostly by using Iraqi oil revenue that could have helped the people of Iraq instead[/] of continuing to enrich Saddam Hussein, the Bathe party and to rebuild the Iraqi military)

(f) quickly removed our military presence from Saudi Arabia - and for that matter, on land in the [i]entire
Persian Gulf region (except for a brief military occupation of Iraq); the only military presence we needed in that region up until the 1990 crisis was the U.S. 6th Fleet

And your position is agreeing with SecDefDick Cheney, stopping the war clock at 100 hours. 😜

You can fill in the rest, such as, allowing Hussein to:

(a) massacre the Shias and the Kurds, causing a refugee and humanitarian crisis near the Turkish and Iranian borders

(b) remain in power and rebuild his military

(c) threaten Kuwait once more in 1996 by massing some 60,000 troops on the border

(d) plot to assassinate former President George H. W. Bush

(d) flaunt U.N. weapon-inspectors

etc., etc., etc.

In otherwords, I laid out my "End Game" for how to deal with Iraq and Saddam Hussen in 1991 and U.S. military presence (or not) in the region once Iraq was defeated.

What would have been yours?
Bumbles · 51-55, M
@beckyromero I appreciate the time you took to respond, but I feel the conversation has begun to repeat itself. Your knowledge of the conflict is very impressive indeed. Thanks.