How Biden won back the working class?

@whowasthatmaskedman I’m still voting for Biden, but this really makes a mockery out of being a liberal.

@whowasthatmaskedman I do agree. This like the last election will be about people voting against Trump more than anyone being particularly inspired by Biden.

That being said I think it could be closer after he basically alienated Muslim Americans for probably an entire generation.

@whowasthatmaskedman This time four years ago, Biden led Trump in the RCP polling averages by about five points, and if Trump had had about 45,000 more strategically placed votes he would have won the election. Currently, Trump leads Biden in the RCP polling average by 0.4 points. If we continue on the current trajectory Biden will get walloped in the electoral college this fall, and, given that both candidates are known quantities, it’s hard to imagine what might possibly change the trajectory very much. Knowing full well that it will be an unmitigated catastrophe, I’m mentally preparing for a Trump victory.

@Theyitis Four years ago or even four months ago means nothing. At one point in 2016 Jeb Bush was the GOP favorite.


Also 4 years ago Biden didn't alienate an entire demographic.

@ThomReidTheBlack It doesn’t mean nothing. The thing is, it’s not all that early anymore. Jeb Bush was the favorite in like June and July of [i]2015[/i], granted a lot of commentators were still saying in December 2015/January 2016 that Trump’s lead in the polls wouldn’t hold, but Trump had been consistently leading the polls for several months by then. I’m pretty sure by this time in 2016 the race for the Republican nomination was down to just Trump and Cruz. We’re close enough now to Election Day that historically, yes the election results will be a little bit different from what the polls are now showing, but not [i]very[/i] different. Very high probability that the final election results will be somewhere between Biden +2.6 and Trump +3.4. I said that the RCP polling average at this time four years ago had Biden up by about five points, what was Biden’s margin in the popular vote that fall? 4.5%, Yet if Trump had won about 45,000 more strategically placed votes he would have nevertheless beaten Biden in the electoral college. So even if Biden catches a lot of breaks between now and November he probably shouldn’t expect to win the popular vote by much more than 2.6 %. Do you think that’s a big enough margin for Biden to eke out another electoral college victory? I don’t think you can say for certain that it wouldn’t be enough, but I sure as hell wouldn’t want to bet on it being enough! And that’s about the rosiest plausible scenario for Biden. There are still plenty more plausible scenarios in which Biden would perform even worse in the election. Frankly, it’s beyond me why so many Democrats seem to think Biden has a solid chance of winning.

@whowasthatmaskedman I don’t vote based solely on policy.

@ThomReidTheBlack It's a (loud) fringe that got alienated, not an entire demographic.

@Theyitis
The problem with polls this far from the election, especially in tense times, is that they're only representative of those who bother answering the pollsters with something more elaborated than "no thanks". 2015/16 America is not post 2020 America, it's nearly like comparing Russia to the USSR.

Trump has consistently underperformed at both the last two elections (2020 presidentials, 2022 midterms) and the predicted "red wave" failed to materialize twice in a row. Given that he's the one who alienated pretty much everyone minus his cult, and possibly also an unknown number of female members of his cult who don't want to die of involuntary or unlucky pregnancy, I don't really see what makes you believe he has better chances now than in the recent past.

@Elessar Trump did [i]not[/i] underperform in 2020, Biden always had comfortable leads over him in the polls and yet Trump came within 45,000 well-placed votes of winning! That wasn’t supposed to happen.

And Republicans only underperformed the [i]expectations[/i] set by the media’s narrative in 2022. Historically the president’s party performs badly in the midterms, so the media talked about a red wave, and it didn’t happen; however, if you looked at the [i]polls[/i], the polls were pretty damn accurate, in fact Republicans slightly [i]over[/i]performed the polls in 2022.

And sadly, plenty of red states have recently shown a capability of voting to protect abortion while still electing anti-choice Republican candidates. Polling shows that pro-choice Republicans will mostly still support Trump. Abortion getting put on the ballot is not going to save Biden.

@ThomReidTheBlack Many of them realize that Trump winning would get Palestine in a situation that is 1,000 times worse than the current status quo. People in Trump's camp are literally suggesting to solve the Gaza strip problem by dropping nukes on it (I cite, textually "like Hiroshima and Nagasaki"; [u]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/31/tim-walberg-republican-congressman-gaza[/u], and their Israeli counterpart: [u]https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/far-right-minister-nuking-gaza-is-an-option-population-should-go-to-ireland-or-deserts/[/u]). Even if you want to assume they won't go that far (and when it comes to Trump, I'd make no similar assumptions), setting the bar that high already pretty much green lights doing anything much much nastier than Biden trying not to break the geopolitical equilibriums in the region too much.

Besides, it's not that Biden can concede to the Muslim leftwing without losing electors among the more centre / centre-right base, which is the most consistent part of the electorate as well. Whatever Biden does he'll lose electors, there's a reason why this crisis was triggered before the elections, everyone involved (Israel, Iran, Russia and respective proxies) want Biden out.

@Elessar This is the Biden policy on Gaza in a nutshell.

@ThomReidTheBlack Good, you’ll love Trump.

@ThomReidTheBlack

@Elessar Except that is objectively false.

"Trump bad" doesn't mean you get to deny objective reality about the current POTUS.

The only difference is Biden has deluded liberals into thinking he feels really bad about supporting genocide.

And with Trump you are assuming a hypothetical will happen.

With Biden he already is helping carry out genocide.

But I likely won't convince you because for you this is a belief system not about the facts on the ground.

@ThomReidTheBlack Except that it isn't. Biden's electorate is half centrist and half leftwing, with a slightly higher percentage of the former over the latter, but nowhere sufficient to win him an election on its own. Compromising is vital for his campaign, and in fact his positions have changed quite significantly over the course of the war. From "I am a Zionist" to literally pressuring for a ceasefire.

Trump's electorate is compactly far right and anti-muslim, he doesn't need to compromise, the more victims he'll make the higher his rating will be among his supporters; if after four years (and two of MAGAs immolating themselves to COVID just to own the libs) you're still in denial about it to think that he will be just the same for Palestinians I have a bridge connecting New York to Lisbon to sell you. His own puppets in Congress are literally demanding to [b]nuke[/b] the Gaza strip.

This whole crisis happened because Putin knows he can get Trump installed, and make his very own genocide of Ukrainian people go smoother and without impediments if he manages to essentially break the west. Hamas is an Iranian proxy, Iran is a key Russian ally. Bibi too prefers Trump over Biden simply over the fact the former will essentially give carte blanche to him, and both Hamas and the Palestinians will be left to their fate once no longer useful to Putin's vause. They aren't even hiding it. Trump's alone is incapable of winning an election after the 2016-20 fiasco, the only way for it to happen is if left-wingers are just as stupid to get split and convinced not to vote, allowing the 30ish% of Trump voters secure him a relative majority.. and here we are.