As a Democrat this article is scaring the crap out of me

@Subsumedpat This election won’t be a referendum on Trump like 2020 was, it will be a referendum on President Biden. Plenty of people are so disenchanted with both major party candidates that they’ll either vote third party or just stay home on Election Day, but polls show there’s a significant minority that are looking back at the Trump years more favorably now than they did three years ago. Anyhow, in a race between two highly unpopular candidates that have each previously served as president, it’s likely to come down to who has the more enthusiastic support, which is likely to translate into higher voter turnout, and without a doubt that’s Trump.

@Theyitis You should remember Trump lost the pipular vote twice, once in 2016 and again in 2020. That shows you hiw close it was in the first place, nothing has happened that is going to bring back the people who gave him a shot in 2016 and left him in 2020. In fact because of the election denial shit more have left him.

@Subsumedpat Popular vote is meaningless by US election rules. In 2020 Trump lost by about 44,000 strategically placed votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. And polls show him [i]winning[/i] the national popular vote this time as well as polls of most of the swing states. In the 2020 election cycle Biden had a lead outside the margin of error in the vast majority of polling, and only one poll showed the race as a dead heat. This time around Trump has a slight lead on average!

@Theyitis so you think feb 6th will increase his vote?

@Subsumedpat What is February 6?

If you mean January 6, if it had significantly hurt him we’d be seeing that reflected in the polling now.

If February 6 is one of his trial dates, that’s not going to hurt him. He might have the nomination all locked up by that time, if not his lead will likely still be insurmountable. In the general election, maybe a small minority of independents will stop considering him if he’s convicted, but he’ll limit the damage there by insisting it’s all a political witch hunt, that the FBI is some woke institution that’s out to get him.

I think what you’re not seeing here is that even though most of the country thinks Trump is terrible, he’s still got a floor of a little over 40% that love him and will vote for him come hell or high water. But when an incumbent president runs for reelection it’s a referendum on him, and nobody’s really crazy about Biden. All Trump needs to win is for the demographic shifts described in this article to continue at their current pace and for young voters and minorities to be unenthused.

@Theyitis iI dont doubt his hard core but he has already lost one such referendum on a president seeking re election. I dont see he has changed the minds of people who vited against him in 2020

@Subsumedpat What I’m saying is that this time the referendum will be on Biden, not Trump.

@Theyitis So you think someone who lost said refenderum in 2020 will beat someone who did not. Good luck with that.

@Subsumedpat Well I hope not, but American voters tend to have short memories. Polls have shown that more voters now approve of Trump’s job as president than they did in January of 2021.

@Subsumedpat I am willing to take a bet that Biden will not win! I have offered numerous times to donate $10 to the DNC if Biden wins, and anyone that takes my bet will donate $1 to the RNC if a Republican wins, but no one will take my bet!

@fanuc2013 I will.