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BlueVeins · 22-25
The Republicans had something like a 55% chance of winning the Senate and an 80% chance of winning the House. Neither of those probabilities were sufficient to predict authoritatively that there was gonna be a red wave; you're just bad at predicting things.
LeopoldBloom · M
@BlueVeins Also, the polls can only correct for errors in the last election, and make guesses on how to correct for errors in the current one. They clearly oversampled Republicans this time.
JimboSaturn · 56-60, M
@BlueVeins Historically the ruling party loses way more seats than they did in mid-term elections. I guess they were just going off of historical probability.
BlueVeins · 22-25
@JimboSaturn idk, I was watching the polls and to me it seemed like basically any outcome except a blue tidal wave was liable to happen. Nothing but that could've surprised me really.
JimboSaturn · 56-60, M
@BlueVeins Well that's at least what I heard, I'm not American or an expert on voting in the US