Do you believe we have entered the time of the revelation, tribulation, or apocalypse?
I have no doubt whatsoever.
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ElwoodBlues · M
Nope. Basic stochastic theory says that if you've been waiting X amount of time for an event, and the only info you have is the time waited so far, the optimal estimator for the amount of time remaining is equal to the time waited so far.
People thought the apocalypse had come in 999, they thought so again in 1666, and again in 1999 among other many many other years of predicted apocalypses. My best guess is we'll be waiting about 2000 more years.
Update: I admit, it's not a terribly useful estimator. Optimal doesn't always mean good; sometimes it means least bad.
People thought the apocalypse had come in 999, they thought so again in 1666, and again in 1999 among other many many other years of predicted apocalypses. My best guess is we'll be waiting about 2000 more years.
Update: I admit, it's not a terribly useful estimator. Optimal doesn't always mean good; sometimes it means least bad.