Will Biden win the election.?

For what its worth, I think he will. Not my country caveat applies. I thought Trump and Hillary were 50/50 four years ago but now I think its highly unlikely Trump can win. Its possible but I'd say Biden is 85-90% to become President and will probably win convincingly. Judging from some of very many bad arguments that Trump supporters are putting forward on here, it seems that they think so to. Whether they admit to it or not.

Im not a Biden fan and I think that thete are a lot if legitimate criticisms one can make of him. I think that there is still a significant differences between the two candidates, with Trump being much worse.

The nationalist right needs to lose its global figurehead. Problems are deeper - in Ametica and elsewhere - but a Biden win would be good for the world.

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windinhishair · 61-69, M

The website 538, run by Nate Silver, does a good job of aggregating all of the polls, both nationally and by state, and then modelling election results. Right now he is showing Biden with an 89% chance of winning. Four years ago on Election Day he showed Clinton with a 64% chance of success, and Trump with 36%.

One thing that bothers me about Silver's prognostication is that it does not take Trump's cheating into account. So yes, in a fair election, Biden will win 89% of the time, but what about in an election where Republicans are pulling out all the stops to prevent Democratic votes, to intimidate Democratic voters, to destroy Democratic votes, and to prevent Democratic votes from being counted. That has to increase the chances of Republican success.

Trump's political appointees have slowed mail delivery significantly. Major cites (that tend to vote Democratic) in swing states are seeing on-time delivery slowed to 40-55% instead of the 91% that it was a year ago during the same period. Even in my rural area, mail delivery is much later than it has been in over 30 years. This will directly impact mail-in vote delivery, as it is designed to do.

Voter suppression is the only way Republicans can win now and continue minority rule. And they are doing everything possible to maintain power, no matter what they destroy in the process.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@windinhishair I read 538 for both sports and politics. I think Silver's prediction is even on the cautious side in some respects because they have compensated for last time by adding volatility. A lot of things are volatile but the polls are not.

Yes, voter suppression is the only thing giving Trump a chance. I think and hope the voter suppression only takes off one or two points, though it's still outrageous.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@Burnley123 Give this some thought: Trump was elected by 46.1% of the voters. He has appointed 3 Supreme Court justices that do not reflect the will of the majority (of nine total). The 47 Democratic Senators that voted against the most recent one represent more people than the 53 Republican Senators. So Senators representing a minority of Americans approved a justice that reflects a minority of Americans and was appointed by a president who received the votes of a minority of Americans. Minority rule. It takes 54 to 56% of the vote nationwide for Democrats to break even in the control of the House. They had the most congressional votes even when the House was recently controlled by Republicans.

The Republicans are a minority party exacting minority rule over the will of the majority. The only way they can continue to remain in power is to tilt the playing field in their direction and/or steal elections through voter suppression and other efforts.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@windinhishair Agree with all that. I think Northwest is right in the Democrats need to be a lot more ruthless. If you take the Senate this time, you should reform the Supreme Court. If not now, it will be harder later because (like you say) the Republicans have an inbuilt majority because they have more strength in smaller states.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@Burnley123 Northwest is right as usual.

I have been opposed to adding more Supreme Court justices for decades, but I am rethinking that position. It may be necessary to preserve democracy.

LeopoldBloom · M

@windinhishair It's very difficult to gauge the effect of voter suppression, COVID-19, and other factors that weren't present in other elections.

I've found that electoral-vote.com has some very good analysis.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@LeopoldBloom Yes they do. Good point.