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Graylight · 51-55, F
This is the perfect point at which to stop the escalation. The Iranians seem to have chosen targets specifically unmanned and sparse and there are no deaths as the result of their attacks. That's not an accident, as these are heavily populated bases.
The US acted badly and Iran responded. Now we can sit down at a table and negotiate. But if Trump is uncertain about his political future, he will launch a war as a reckless and deadly as any we've seen in modern history.
The US acted badly and Iran responded. Now we can sit down at a table and negotiate. But if Trump is uncertain about his political future, he will launch a war as a reckless and deadly as any we've seen in modern history.
Faust76 · 46-50, M
@Graylight Looks like there's widespread expectation US will be retaliating, with air-carriers canceling and re-routing flights, and tankers suspending travel through Strait of Hormuz. Trump's tweet at least was decent, because it gives everybody (who waited for his tweet before sleep) time to get used to the idea there might not be immediate reprisal, while keeping Iran on their toes (They've still been making strong proclamations, though).
Of course, the Ukrainian plane crash complicates matters, especially now that Ukraine suddenly withdrew their statement that it was an engine failure, and Iran (predictably, given it's US company, but there's little sympathy for that) refusing to hand the black boxes over to Boeing. Watch Canada and Sweden suddenly start demanding revenge on Iran, before there's even any investigation.
Of course, the Ukrainian plane crash complicates matters, especially now that Ukraine suddenly withdrew their statement that it was an engine failure, and Iran (predictably, given it's US company, but there's little sympathy for that) refusing to hand the black boxes over to Boeing. Watch Canada and Sweden suddenly start demanding revenge on Iran, before there's even any investigation.
Graylight · 51-55, F
@Faust76 It's all a morass of competing power and ideologies. Until someone backs down from quien es mas macho and the US ends its occupation in the Middle East will any of this be successfully resolved. To keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results is insanity.
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Graylight · 51-55, F
@LvChris Well, here's the thing - we don't know if we don't try. That would be contempt prior to investigation. No, it might not work (or it might), this time but history demonstrated patterns and a pattern of even failed efforts is more valuable than a pattern of war and oppression for greed.
And negotiating doesn't imply bending Iran to our demands. It means sitting down and compromising. We occupy a foreign land; can you imagine if another country set up military bases and flooded in with private security forces and corporations just to get our timber or another resource? We'd be at all-out war within weeks. Yet our nation routinely treats others exactly this way. Maybe it's time for us to stop.
And negotiating doesn't imply bending Iran to our demands. It means sitting down and compromising. We occupy a foreign land; can you imagine if another country set up military bases and flooded in with private security forces and corporations just to get our timber or another resource? We'd be at all-out war within weeks. Yet our nation routinely treats others exactly this way. Maybe it's time for us to stop.
Faust76 · 46-50, M
@Graylight Satellite pictures from the attacked bases are in, and show that the rockets that got through were pinpoint accurate (Like a couple of feet accurate) and maybe a quarter of the yield they could've had. Even if only one third got through, Iran has plenty more.
They also warned Iraq ahead of time, knowing they'd pass it on to US, and attacked bases further away from the border giving them time to see the attack on radar and take shelters (Reports from the field saying that's exactly what they did, the bases weren't empty but the targeted structures were).
I sort of forgot the ways these can send a message. This is like Iran showing "We can assassinate ALL your generals in Middle East if it comes to that" (Remember this would have been a big no-no before the strike Trump ordered), and the generals are like "Fuck NO, let's not go to war with Iran". Still, I'm somewhat impressed at the restraint on both sides.
I also want to point out ALL the people who were loudly declaring that Iran won't attack back etc. It definitely changes the political situation though, because I believe this may be the first thing that can be conclusively pinned on Iran since the revolution. Maybe it'll be another 40 years of "But remember that one day they hit our bases, we must act now!"
They also warned Iraq ahead of time, knowing they'd pass it on to US, and attacked bases further away from the border giving them time to see the attack on radar and take shelters (Reports from the field saying that's exactly what they did, the bases weren't empty but the targeted structures were).
I sort of forgot the ways these can send a message. This is like Iran showing "We can assassinate ALL your generals in Middle East if it comes to that" (Remember this would have been a big no-no before the strike Trump ordered), and the generals are like "Fuck NO, let's not go to war with Iran". Still, I'm somewhat impressed at the restraint on both sides.
I also want to point out ALL the people who were loudly declaring that Iran won't attack back etc. It definitely changes the political situation though, because I believe this may be the first thing that can be conclusively pinned on Iran since the revolution. Maybe it'll be another 40 years of "But remember that one day they hit our bases, we must act now!"