I Like Politics
BREXIT TIME
So , finally after 3 and a half years , Parliament have finally agreed , I stress in principle , a form of withdrawal bill to leave the European Union but not in the timescale the PM wanted.
So here's my view. Boris now faces a huge mountain to get Brexit done by the October 31st deadline but if. I were him tonight I would be quite happy for the EU to grant an extension until 31st January 2020 and once that is granted by the EU Boris can go to the queen and inform her that his party does not command a majority and that her Majesty invite Jeremy Corbyn to form a government. Corbyn does not have the support to command a majority and this would trigger a general election.
Boris could attack swing seats in the South West held by Lib Dems. His biggest challenge in trying to reach the magic 326 is Labour held former mining constituencies who , on principle and history , could not vote Tory over how they felt former PM Margaret Thatcher steam rollered the coal industry. This is where Nigel Farage comes in.
Farage does not believe the withdrawal bill does not represent a full Brexit. Now the beer swilling , chain smoking Nigel could negotiate himself a big part of our departure and in return field candidates in the traditional labour strongholds who voted leave in 2016 with the Tories not putting up a candidate. That would almost be the second referendum the remain camp have been baying for. Can Boris win a majority. It's possible.
So what of Mr Corbyn. He said once an extension to article 50 had been agreed he would gladly go to the ballot box. His problem is a large number of his party don't due to Labour's lack of position on Brexit. Many of his party represent leave constituencies and the electorate don't like betrayal. This could make the Labour manifesto very difficult to sell to voters who just want Brexit done. Can Jezza win a majority? Unlikely.
So to the Lib Dems. Their position has been clear and they now have the most MP'S since their disasterous night in 2015 when Paddy Ashdown said he would eat his hat and an almost tearful Nick Clegg resigned. They wish to stop Brexit , demanding a second referendum and stating that if in government they would revoke article 50. Even if they made gains in the South West they could possibly be the difference between a Boris majority or not. They also hold a position to be a thorn in the side of Labour in Labour held remain constituencies. A gain of 20-30 seats and an increase in the share of the vote could be viewed as a successful canpaign. Can Jo Swinson win a majority? Impossible. Can the Lib Dems join a coalition with the conservatives! No. Can they join a coalition with Labour? Swinson would want concessions and assurances about a people's vote. Corbyn would have to run an incredible campaign for this scenario so the answer is no.
My forecast. We will go to the polls on Thursday 5th December ,
So , finally after 3 and a half years , Parliament have finally agreed , I stress in principle , a form of withdrawal bill to leave the European Union but not in the timescale the PM wanted.
So here's my view. Boris now faces a huge mountain to get Brexit done by the October 31st deadline but if. I were him tonight I would be quite happy for the EU to grant an extension until 31st January 2020 and once that is granted by the EU Boris can go to the queen and inform her that his party does not command a majority and that her Majesty invite Jeremy Corbyn to form a government. Corbyn does not have the support to command a majority and this would trigger a general election.
Boris could attack swing seats in the South West held by Lib Dems. His biggest challenge in trying to reach the magic 326 is Labour held former mining constituencies who , on principle and history , could not vote Tory over how they felt former PM Margaret Thatcher steam rollered the coal industry. This is where Nigel Farage comes in.
Farage does not believe the withdrawal bill does not represent a full Brexit. Now the beer swilling , chain smoking Nigel could negotiate himself a big part of our departure and in return field candidates in the traditional labour strongholds who voted leave in 2016 with the Tories not putting up a candidate. That would almost be the second referendum the remain camp have been baying for. Can Boris win a majority. It's possible.
So what of Mr Corbyn. He said once an extension to article 50 had been agreed he would gladly go to the ballot box. His problem is a large number of his party don't due to Labour's lack of position on Brexit. Many of his party represent leave constituencies and the electorate don't like betrayal. This could make the Labour manifesto very difficult to sell to voters who just want Brexit done. Can Jezza win a majority? Unlikely.
So to the Lib Dems. Their position has been clear and they now have the most MP'S since their disasterous night in 2015 when Paddy Ashdown said he would eat his hat and an almost tearful Nick Clegg resigned. They wish to stop Brexit , demanding a second referendum and stating that if in government they would revoke article 50. Even if they made gains in the South West they could possibly be the difference between a Boris majority or not. They also hold a position to be a thorn in the side of Labour in Labour held remain constituencies. A gain of 20-30 seats and an increase in the share of the vote could be viewed as a successful canpaign. Can Jo Swinson win a majority? Impossible. Can the Lib Dems join a coalition with the conservatives! No. Can they join a coalition with Labour? Swinson would want concessions and assurances about a people's vote. Corbyn would have to run an incredible campaign for this scenario so the answer is no.
My forecast. We will go to the polls on Thursday 5th December ,
