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[b]D-Day for Boris as Parliament debates and votes on the Prime Minister's new leaving agreement[/b]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50092301

MP's are sitting today (Saturday) in order to debate and vote on what Johnson calls the final agreement before Britain is due to leave the E:U on October 31st.

The BBC reports that this vote will be close and that Johnson seems confident of winning. But doesn't really shed much light on why they think so. Given the fact that Johnson suspended his majority after the last one.

One wonders just what exactly he'll have had to promise the 'dissenters' to suddenly make them change their minds from 'Remainers' to 'Leavers'.

There are 287 Conservative MP's. In order to win the vote Johnson will need 320. So assuming everybody follows 'party lines' it's going to be interesting to see where and why 33 non-Tories would agree to a deal which is virtually the same as Theresa May's which was soundly rejected three times in The Commons.

The fate of the whole country and probably an entire generation could hang on who these 33 are and why they vote the way they do.

Also worrying is the number of MP's who will vote today but have already declared they won't be standing for election next year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews

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SW-User

So many are not standing for re-election because they know they won't be re-elected. Particularly remainers in leave constituencies

If the deal is rejected it may strengthen Boris position come the election as he can say he brought back a deal and Labour rejected it so they will own the 'betrayed the result of the referendum' territory

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@SW-User Yes. Clearly i think the idea was that after Cameron's 'deal' was rejected, the plan to put Boris as PM was underway since it was the only way to unite a majority of the Tory party Euro skeptics.

Unfortunately they selected Theresa May for the 'interim' and she went a bit beyond the stance they had in mind for her !
eg: Present the country with a deal and subsequent vote, see it carried and then let Boris take over once we'd left the E:U.

But she didn't carry the vote. So that put Johnson in the driving seat ahead of the decision. Meaning that this really is a last roll of the dice for the Conservatives !
Even if he wins,he knows he needs to go to the country for an election since he doesn't have either a mandate from the people for his leadership nor his Brexit deal.

Now if opposition parties roundly reject the deal it's likely Johnson will have to call an election since he has neither a majority nor backing for his deal in Parliament.
And THAT may spell disaster for any new incoming party to government, if they then HAVE to govern following an exit for which they neither wanted nor had chance to plan for !

SW-User

@Picklebobble2 If the deal is rejected and the Benn act comes into force Boris will want to go to the country in December hoping to win a majority so he can take us out , deal or no deal , on Jan 31st. I can't see Labour winning a general election with their internal problems (anti-Semitism) and Corbyn has no clear position on Brexit.

Boris could strike a deal with Farage to offer leave voters in Labour heartlands an alternative because on principal they won't vote Tory

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@SW-User well clearly what he wants is another party to win the next election, have them deal with the fallout from Brexit and set the Conservative party back on some sort of even keel.

But what happens should he lose today. Call an election. Get re-elected but with no majority ?

SW-User

@Picklebobble2 The general election will become the people's vote that remoaners have been whinging for

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@SW-User Can't help but think ALL THIS could have been avoided had Cameron just kicked the skeptics out of his own party at a time of economic unrest within the country.

SW-User

@Picklebobble2 It wasn't just his bank benchers though. UKIP had stormed the European elections in 2014 and Farage was riding the crest of a wave. Cameron feared a massive defection of Euro skeptics. Not just that though Cameron felt the EU were just steam rolling their own agenda and the UK were being sidelined as we were not a Euro Zone member

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@SW-User And nothing would have changed had everything gone to HIS plan.
Britain will ALWAYS be sidelined BECAUSE we STILL don't want further integration and we STILL don't want the Euro.

SW-User

@Picklebobble2 The Euro has been a total flop. But none Euro Zone countries were forced into the bail out programme