Is Britain heading for a no-deal Brexit?

British public opinion doesn't seem to be prepared for this because people just think that 'sanity will prevail'. Also, most Brexit voters do not realise how bad a no-deal Brexit will be.

People have pointed out that 'experts got things wrong' by predicting an immediate recession after the Brexit vote. This was not all experts and certainly not myself but some Brexit voters are taking this to mean all experts must be wrong and/or biased at all times. There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit.

After the referendum two years ago, financial markets essentially bet on a soft-Brexit. Businesses thought that there would a soft and minimal Brexit so money stayed in the country and the value of the pound (more-or-less) held up. As a harder Brexit looks more and more likely, the pound is sinking and businesses are making alternative plans.

Unfortunately, the Government is not making plans for a hard-Brexit. There are no contingencies in place for a big economic crash or instant blockages in trade. The whole Brexit negotiation process seems to inhabit a parallel alternative reality. The BBC is talking about May's palace drama and is doing nothing to prepare public opinion for a crisis which we are not used to.

There are lots of details why a no-deal Brexit could happen but the best way to understand it is as a game of chicken. The EU, Britain's political parties (and factions within those parties) all have good reasons not to blink. Everyone has priorities and the potential to lose the support of their base if they back down. Nobody (bar the ERG) wants the car to crash in a pile-up but nobody wants to be seen as a coward by their own support.

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whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

If I were a British politician with a weak mandate for a Brexit and I had a difficult EU (and when are they not) to deal with and public opinion running against me, I would accept an unacceptable offer from the EU, knowing I couldnt get support in parliament or on the street, . Then I would have the offer rejected by parliament and use that lousy offer and its rejection to steel public opinion behind me and push ahead with a hard Brexit, repeating that this was what you all asked for in rejecting the offer.Interim arrangements and trade deals will happen very quickly when people and goods start piling up. and people will be so happy to get things moving that they wont complain about the fine print.

room101 · 51-55, M

@whowasthatmaskedman Even if you were a Remainer?

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@whowasthatmaskedman Brexit by gunpoint .... that's exactly what [b]is[/b] happening.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 Personally I would be an exit voter. But not for the reasons its happening. But if I were a remainer I would be missing a lot of profitable opportunities to change and update a WHOLE raft of systems. And I would have called the Second Referendum a long time ago.

room101 · 51-55, M

@whowasthatmaskedman Theresa May is a Remainer. She is also PM. Is it wise for a PM to say to the voting public;

"I don't like the result you gave me last time so here's another go"

room101 · 51-55, M

@RodionRomanovitch but who is holding the gun 🤔

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 I dont see her as a leader. More as a figurehead. and a Captive of the party.

room101 · 51-55, M

@whowasthatmaskedman and yet she has consistently gone against the party majority on this issue

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 "When all is said and done, a lot more will be said than done." She may be a weak politician. But she is a politician. And knowing how to lose something you dont want to win is a classic.

room101 · 51-55, M

@whowasthatmaskedman Politicians are strategists. They have to be otherwise they would get nowhere. However, to be an effective strategist, one has to have an end goal in mind.

In your original post, you seem to be implying that Theresa May's end goal is for the UK to leave the EU with no deal ie a Hard Brexit.

But she is a Remainer. So that means that she doesn't want to leave the EU and certainly doesn't want a Hard Brexit.

Now you seem to be saying that her plan all along has been for the UK to stay in the EU. That she is attempting to achieve this by giving us such a crap deal that we will be forced to change our minds and vote to stay.

But she has always refused any and every call for a second referendum.

That's pretty Machiavellian by anybody's standards.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 To be open, I do not know which side of the coin she is on. But I dont think it matters what her personal view is. I think she will cling to power and sell her soul to the hard Brexit people to do it. And if the people revolt at that idea, her plan B is to back away and "regretfully " use an excuse like a second referendum to remain. But now that looks like even more of a weakened defeat to the people, thanks to the EU inflexible deal offer.

room101 · 51-55, M

@whowasthatmaskedman I don't know if you're abreast of the latest developments but the government has been held in contempt of Parliament. Because they did not release full details of the legal advice given to them by the Attorney General. Client privilege be damned.

It's a shit show!

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 Whatever gets them the outcome the money wants.