Is Britain heading for a no-deal Brexit?

British public opinion doesn't seem to be prepared for this because people just think that 'sanity will prevail'. Also, most Brexit voters do not realise how bad a no-deal Brexit will be.

People have pointed out that 'experts got things wrong' by predicting an immediate recession after the Brexit vote. This was not all experts and certainly not myself but some Brexit voters are taking this to mean all experts must be wrong and/or biased at all times. There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit.

After the referendum two years ago, financial markets essentially bet on a soft-Brexit. Businesses thought that there would a soft and minimal Brexit so money stayed in the country and the value of the pound (more-or-less) held up. As a harder Brexit looks more and more likely, the pound is sinking and businesses are making alternative plans.

Unfortunately, the Government is not making plans for a hard-Brexit. There are no contingencies in place for a big economic crash or instant blockages in trade. The whole Brexit negotiation process seems to inhabit a parallel alternative reality. The BBC is talking about May's palace drama and is doing nothing to prepare public opinion for a crisis which we are not used to.

There are lots of details why a no-deal Brexit could happen but the best way to understand it is as a game of chicken. The EU, Britain's political parties (and factions within those parties) all have good reasons not to blink. Everyone has priorities and the potential to lose the support of their base if they back down. Nobody (bar the ERG) wants the car to crash in a pile-up but nobody wants to be seen as a coward by their own support.

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room101 · 51-55, M

What plans for a hard Brexit could the government realistically make?

Without knowing what our future relationship with the EU was actually going to be, it is almost impossible to make any tangible and realistic plans. For example, the movement of goods. The EU could have allowed us access to customs technology and procedures currently in place. We would therefore only need to implement a sort of domestic interface. Or, the EU could say "sod off", we're going to vet and examine all of your goods. That would mean a whole new set of problems.

My point is, without us first trying to formulate a workable deal with the EU, any plans for hard Brexit would be chaotic.

And I'm sorry to say this (because I know that you support these two) but, Corbyn and his right-hand man McDonnell, are causing far more damage, because they are only concerned with ousting the Tories. They are going against May's deal because it is May's deal. In the last few weeks, every interview that I've seen with those two always centers around the same theme. Vote of no confidence in the government. A general election. And the whole EU merry-go-round starts all over again. With yet more uncertainty, no hard Brexit plans, money being paid to the EU, and on and on and on.

Here's a little example.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tupR2UUYZm8

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@room101 I think you could definitely have contingency plans for things not working out. Certainly a plan B or preparing for the worst. It could be stockpiling key supplies, preparing emergency legislation. This hasn't happened.

I am more remainer than Corbyn or McDonnell and I accept that Labour's policy is a fudge. I don't see how they could stop Brexit, then or before.

Do you advocate people, just accepting May's deal? Serious question, not pejorative.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@room101 The way Corbyn and the Labour Party are seeking only to gain political advantage over something as serious as this is frankly disgusting. I abandoned party politics a long time ago and nothing I've seen since would ever convince me to support any of them ever again.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@RodionRomanovitch

I do think Labour should come out for Remain now. On the video above, when Corbyn was grilled by Gordon the Goffer's handler, he looked very convincing in attacking May but very unconvincing in his alternative plans. I am not sure whether he would be able to stop Brexit but he really should try because I don't think they can negotiate a deal which is much better.

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 There has been stock piling of medical supplies. Are there any other key supplies that we should be stock pilling. All of EU legislation was brought into British Law in January 2017. What emergency legislation do we need?

I know that all of your questions are serious and not pejorative.

In essence, no I don't advocate simply accepting May's deal. Debate is necessary and, as Corbyn points out in the above interview, the EU could improve its current deal with May. However, we cannot ignore the simple fact that, whilst the EU sees the disarray in Parliament, they can play as hard as they want.

Corbyn and McDonnell are Remainers (remember when I had to ask you about that). This is an issue that crosses all party politics. Why didn't they work with Theresa May who is also a Remainer?

Because a huge proportion of Labour voters chose Brexit.

I'm sorry but, to me, Corbyn and McDonnell are no different to Boris Johnson in that, this is all power politics and not what is for the good of the nation as a whole.

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 "Gordon the Goffer"..............what's that all about?!!!?????

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@room101 I'm not sure Corbyn was that much of a remainer tbh. I'd always thought of him as basically anti-european.

room101 · 51-55, M

@RodionRomanovitch To be honest, I had no clue where he stood on the EU. And I have a very keen interest in all politics. I had to ask Burnley because everything that he has said on this issue has been so wishy-washy and just full of pointless catch phrases.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@room101 I've been asking Burnley incessantly about the chances of the Labour Party throwing themselves firmly behind a second referendum. That they haven't done so already is almost unbelievable to me.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@room101 No need to apologise because I accept the constructive criticism. Some of what you say, I do agree with.

The two big contradictions about Brexit are that A) It cuts across party lines and B What people voted for was never deliverable as they think it is.

May was a remainer though she did not campaign in the referendum either way and came out for hard-Brexit just after it. She has since been negotiated into a weird soft-Brexit when faced with a reality she did not admit to for a long time.

Corbyn and McDonnell are Eurosceptic remainers who want to keep the third of Labour voters who chose out on board. Also, a large number of non-Corbynite Labour MPs do not want to go hard-remain because of their constituents. Almost all of the most pro-remain MPs are in major cities, especially London.

Labour has been under intense pressure to accept the 'will of the people' and to come out for a second red - say before the election - would have meant a big Tory majority and a hard-Brexit mandate. It certainly would not have put Labour in a situation where they could afffect either a second ref or a different Brexit deal.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/03/jeremy-corbyn-cannot-end-brexit.html

I do not think Corbyn has it within his power to stop Brexit and I don't think he could take the whole Labour Party with him. At this point, I don't think he would be able to get a much better deal from the EU either and Labour needs clarity on their position and quickly.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@RodionRomanovitch I am only one Labour Party member LOL. I am glad I joined because I see a Corbyn led Labour as the thing which best represents my political principles. I am not so much a party hack that I won't accept valid criticism when I find it. Labour has fudged the issue and its position, much as it has one, is an evolving mess of contradiction, compromise and pretend optimism. I can see the strategic reason for this and I don't think Labour has yet been in a position to stop Brexit anyway, but I'm gonna call a turd a turd.

BTW, almost 95% of Labour members (myself included) are remain voters. I tried to outline the reasons to your question above.

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 "What people voted for was never deliverable but they think it is."

I don't entirely agree with that. If what I voted for was to leave the EU, then that is entirely deliverable. And, at this point, we really do not know what the consequences of a hard Brexit will be. I agree with what you've said to others in this post ie that we should listen to expert advice but, the fact remains that it is an unknown. In and of itself, none of the estimated, projected and perceived consequences of Brexit make Brexit undeliverable.

May was part of Cameron's cabinet at the time. He campaigned for Remain. Did she also need to campaign? Possibly she did. IDK.

She went for Brexit after the referendum because a) Cameron bolted b) she became PM c) that was the referendum result. Can we really fault her doing what the British public said that they wanted?

Your penultimate paragraph seems to underscore what I've been saying ie that it's power politics and not what is for the good of the nation as a whole.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@room101 I'll acknowledge criticism of my side where I think it is fair and Labour's position on Brexit is also not grounded in reality. If it had been, they would have been wiped out in the last general election and would be in no position to affect the Brexit process anyway, though nonetheless, your point is perfectly valid.

May did back remain in public but did almost nothing to campaign for it and was criticised internally for not taking a stand. IMO, she was hedging her bets:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/25/theresa-may-allies-reject-claim-role-eu-referendum-campaign

[quote]What people voted for was never deliverable but they think it is[/quote]

I have to politely disagree with you on this point also The words on the ballot paper were a short sentence each and Britain did vote to leave the EU. However, an essential flaw of the process is that [i]what most Brexit voters take Brexit to mean[/i] is not deliverable.

There are obvious things like the famous money for the NHS on the bus. Also, the idea that we can reduce freedom of movement with no economic trade-off. The Brexit campaign made promises that they must have known were not deliverable but some of them are still making this now. People believe it too and look at the responses from Brexiteers on this question.

A big part of their response is to blame May for being a bad negotiator or blame the EU. The EU is only acting in its own interests and May is a bad negotiator but the essential point is that Britain does not have the power to negotiate a Brexit deal as is wanted by Brexit voters.

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 That's the issue isn't it? It's what people thought Brexit would mean as opposed to what it does mean.

Brexit means leaving the EU. That's wholly deliverable.
Brexit means we're going to have X, Y and Z. Really 🤔

To be totally honest, I don't know enough about Theresa May, pre-referendum, to be able to comment on what she was and wasn't thinking. Hedging her bets about what? My gut tells me that she, myself included, believed that sense would prevail and a Remain result would be the outcome.

I very much doubt that I would vote for Theresa May as my local MP. However, I do not think that it's fair to call her a bad negotiator. She took on a very difficult task which has been made almost impossible by the dissent in Parliament.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@room101 BTW. Gordon the Gopher (spelling) was Phillip Schofield's puppet when he made his name as a kid's TV presenter. I was into that at the time because I was the right age LOL. I always remember him from that it still feels weird when I see he talking about serious stuff:

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 😂😂😂 I never knew that!!!!!! Brilliant!