Is Britain heading for a no-deal Brexit?
British public opinion doesn't seem to be prepared for this because people just think that 'sanity will prevail'. Also, most Brexit voters do not realise how bad a no-deal Brexit will be.
People have pointed out that 'experts got things wrong' by predicting an immediate recession after the Brexit vote. This was not all experts and certainly not myself but some Brexit voters are taking this to mean all experts must be wrong and/or biased at all times. There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit.
After the referendum two years ago, financial markets essentially bet on a soft-Brexit. Businesses thought that there would a soft and minimal Brexit so money stayed in the country and the value of the pound (more-or-less) held up. As a harder Brexit looks more and more likely, the pound is sinking and businesses are making alternative plans.
Unfortunately, the Government is not making plans for a hard-Brexit. There are no contingencies in place for a big economic crash or instant blockages in trade. The whole Brexit negotiation process seems to inhabit a parallel alternative reality. The BBC is talking about May's palace drama and is doing nothing to prepare public opinion for a crisis which we are not used to.
There are lots of details why a no-deal Brexit could happen but the best way to understand it is as a game of chicken. The EU, Britain's political parties (and factions within those parties) all have good reasons not to blink. Everyone has priorities and the potential to lose the support of their base if they back down. Nobody (bar the ERG) wants the car to crash in a pile-up but nobody wants to be seen as a coward by their own support.
People have pointed out that 'experts got things wrong' by predicting an immediate recession after the Brexit vote. This was not all experts and certainly not myself but some Brexit voters are taking this to mean all experts must be wrong and/or biased at all times. There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit.
After the referendum two years ago, financial markets essentially bet on a soft-Brexit. Businesses thought that there would a soft and minimal Brexit so money stayed in the country and the value of the pound (more-or-less) held up. As a harder Brexit looks more and more likely, the pound is sinking and businesses are making alternative plans.
Unfortunately, the Government is not making plans for a hard-Brexit. There are no contingencies in place for a big economic crash or instant blockages in trade. The whole Brexit negotiation process seems to inhabit a parallel alternative reality. The BBC is talking about May's palace drama and is doing nothing to prepare public opinion for a crisis which we are not used to.
There are lots of details why a no-deal Brexit could happen but the best way to understand it is as a game of chicken. The EU, Britain's political parties (and factions within those parties) all have good reasons not to blink. Everyone has priorities and the potential to lose the support of their base if they back down. Nobody (bar the ERG) wants the car to crash in a pile-up but nobody wants to be seen as a coward by their own support.
41-45, M
