Is Britain heading for a no-deal Brexit?

British public opinion doesn't seem to be prepared for this because people just think that 'sanity will prevail'. Also, most Brexit voters do not realise how bad a no-deal Brexit will be.

People have pointed out that 'experts got things wrong' by predicting an immediate recession after the Brexit vote. This was not all experts and certainly not myself but some Brexit voters are taking this to mean all experts must be wrong and/or biased at all times. There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit.

After the referendum two years ago, financial markets essentially bet on a soft-Brexit. Businesses thought that there would a soft and minimal Brexit so money stayed in the country and the value of the pound (more-or-less) held up. As a harder Brexit looks more and more likely, the pound is sinking and businesses are making alternative plans.

Unfortunately, the Government is not making plans for a hard-Brexit. There are no contingencies in place for a big economic crash or instant blockages in trade. The whole Brexit negotiation process seems to inhabit a parallel alternative reality. The BBC is talking about May's palace drama and is doing nothing to prepare public opinion for a crisis which we are not used to.

There are lots of details why a no-deal Brexit could happen but the best way to understand it is as a game of chicken. The EU, Britain's political parties (and factions within those parties) all have good reasons not to blink. Everyone has priorities and the potential to lose the support of their base if they back down. Nobody (bar the ERG) wants the car to crash in a pile-up but nobody wants to be seen as a coward by their own support.

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Mamapolo2016 · F

I know precious little about this, but this statement struck me.

"There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit."

Is there credible opinion which says it WILL be worse off? And who gets to determine which opinions are credible?

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Mamapolo2016 Yes, absolutely loads.

From the central bank and the treasury:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/economic-forecasts-strike-blow-to-theresa-mays-brexit-deal

Insititute for Government:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/news/in-the-press/grim-reality-no-deal-brexit

Oxford Economist Simon Wren-Lewis:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/01/brexit-is-fantastic-project.html

You can take your pick from sources because there is a wide consensus that Brexit will be bad for the economy.

bowman81 · M

@Burnley123 Except for the consensus of the voters, but evidently they don't count because they disagree with you and your experts? My understanding is that the only test of consensus was a referendum where Brexit won.

Mamapolo2016 · F

@Burnley123 The economy hasn't been all that healthy under un-Brexit, has it? Only 3 or 4 years out of the last 18 where it reached 3% or higher.

Aren't some of those sources people who've been captaining the economic ship? If they haven't been able to do what's needed, how can they be so sure what ISN'T needed?

This isn't Anglophobia - I wonder the same about our 'experts.'

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@bowman81 You are allowed to disagree with experts and vote how you like, but we are talking about what is right for the country and the why and how do matter.

People voted for £350 million on a big red bus, controlled immigration and economic prosperity. None of this can happen.

There is no popular consensus for this deal or for the reality of a no-deal Brexit.

QuixoticSoul · 41-45, M

@bowman81 They count. But voters are idiots. This is why the term “credible opinion” was used.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Mamapolo2016 No, your opinions are reasonable and I'm happy to respond.

Yes, the British economy is not in great shape anyway though bad things can always get worse. The bank of England sets interest rates here and though I don't always like them as an institution, they did prevent a greater economic crisis in 2007. Simon-Wren Lewis is an academic who has no direct political power.

There is a consensus between people I like and people don't on this.

Brexit did happen because people are pissed off. There is too much inequality and people are seeing their lives as getting worse. I think Brexit is a fantasy answer to real underlying problems.