Will the British Far-Right do well out of Brexit?
Unfortunately, I think they will. Tommy Robinson is the founder of the English Defense League (EDL) and he is organising a protest around Brexit betrayal, just as Parliament is about to vote on Thereasa May's dog's dinner Brexit deal. The EDL are an outright Fascist organisation which have been involved in street violence and though Robinson claims to have left them behind, the EDL and other such groups are avid followers of his.
So why might British people be taken in by such a man and what does Brexit have to do with it?
Under any possible circumstances, a large number of people who voted to leave the EU will be disappointed with the outcome. This is inevitable because Brexit itself was always a fantasy promised by certain politicians but never deliverable in the real world. There are three possible outcomes to the Brexit mess:
1) Brexit is cancelled. People will feel betrayed because what they voted for has been cancelled by politicians.
2) Soft-Brexit. Though the Leave campaign was never unanimous on leaving the customs union and the single market, many Brexit voters see it as meaning just that. So a partial break with the EU will be seen as a sell-out.
3) Hard-Brexit. A lot of Brexit voters do claim to want this and think it will make the country stronger. Every economic expert thinks it will be a disaster but conservative politicians and press say this will be relatively easy and that is what people want to believe. The reality of hard Brexit is a huge economic crash and Brexit voters will still feel hurt and cheated.
Basically, the only way for people who voted for Brexit to be happy with the outcome is if Brexit hugely cuts immigration and increases the economic strength of the country, whilst retaining national sovereignty. This can't happen and was never gonna happen so one of the three scenarios above will leave people feeling betrayed by both mainstream politicians and the EU. The tabloid press is already pumping out the narrative of national pride lost and betrayal by elites.
Most Brexit voters want nothing to do with the far-right, but a section of them will be seen as low-hanging fruit. 30% of people in this country believe that the government is deliberately hiding immigration figures 18% believe that there is a deliberate plan to make us a Muslim majority country. Most of these people will be Brexit voters.
The aforementioned Robinson is now aiming for political legitimacy by trying to join UKIP (Nigel Farage's old party) and UKIP themselves have gone from 2% to 7% in the polls. UKIP has the potential to push the UK Conservatives further to the nationalist right. The far-right is currently doing very well in Europe and one way or another, its ideas could permeate the UK.
Worrying times.
So why might British people be taken in by such a man and what does Brexit have to do with it?
Under any possible circumstances, a large number of people who voted to leave the EU will be disappointed with the outcome. This is inevitable because Brexit itself was always a fantasy promised by certain politicians but never deliverable in the real world. There are three possible outcomes to the Brexit mess:
1) Brexit is cancelled. People will feel betrayed because what they voted for has been cancelled by politicians.
2) Soft-Brexit. Though the Leave campaign was never unanimous on leaving the customs union and the single market, many Brexit voters see it as meaning just that. So a partial break with the EU will be seen as a sell-out.
3) Hard-Brexit. A lot of Brexit voters do claim to want this and think it will make the country stronger. Every economic expert thinks it will be a disaster but conservative politicians and press say this will be relatively easy and that is what people want to believe. The reality of hard Brexit is a huge economic crash and Brexit voters will still feel hurt and cheated.
Basically, the only way for people who voted for Brexit to be happy with the outcome is if Brexit hugely cuts immigration and increases the economic strength of the country, whilst retaining national sovereignty. This can't happen and was never gonna happen so one of the three scenarios above will leave people feeling betrayed by both mainstream politicians and the EU. The tabloid press is already pumping out the narrative of national pride lost and betrayal by elites.
Most Brexit voters want nothing to do with the far-right, but a section of them will be seen as low-hanging fruit. 30% of people in this country believe that the government is deliberately hiding immigration figures 18% believe that there is a deliberate plan to make us a Muslim majority country. Most of these people will be Brexit voters.
The aforementioned Robinson is now aiming for political legitimacy by trying to join UKIP (Nigel Farage's old party) and UKIP themselves have gone from 2% to 7% in the polls. UKIP has the potential to push the UK Conservatives further to the nationalist right. The far-right is currently doing very well in Europe and one way or another, its ideas could permeate the UK.
Worrying times.
41-45, M
