Nate Silver: no way Dems don’t win the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/
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Shade70 · 51-55, M
Silver is a great guy and I have respect for his modeling historically, but just like he under predicted Obama in 2012 and trump in 2016 because there was a segment of the population voting for each who wouldn't readily admit it skewing the predictive polling, I dont see why the same isnt true in this cycle. Trump is highly polarizing and admitting you're voting R is not the popular thing in many places. As a result the predictive will be skewed leftward as people dont admit to voting the way they actually do at their polling place.
jackjjackson · M
It would be fantastic if you are correct. @Shade70
Shade70 · 51-55, M
I'm not saying it will be enough skew. Just that I would set Silver as the leftmost point and expect most results to come in right of his predictions (assuming he didnt change his methodology based off data from 2016, which is certainly possible)
jackjjackson · M
Makes sense. All in all quite a slim chance for the republicans to maintain a House majority. @Shade70