Predictions. Thoughts?
Brett Kavanaugh Nomination: 51-49
Yes:
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
No:
Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Susan Collins (R-ME)
First, I hope I am wrong and that the Kavanaugh nomination goes down instead. And his nomination very well may go down. But only if all the Democrats vote "no" together, as well as at least two of the following three: Collins, Flake and Murkowski.
But I think the Republicans are going to write off Collins for 2020, figuring the Democrats will flip the state. Trump's attack at this week's Mississippi rally might have been the last straw for Flake, especially if at least two of those three above in the "yes" prediction vote that way (since a 50-50 tie would be broken by Pence).
Heitkamp's probably going to lose re-election; she may view a "yes" vote as one last shot at giving her a chance. To use a football anology, her vote will be a "Hail Mary" pass. Manchin might have a fall-back if his "no" vote depresses Democrats' votes in his state. He has met with Trump. Could a cabinet position be in the offing if he loses?
Murkowski may be leaning closer to "no" than Manchin and Heitkamp. She may be taking a wait-and-see. If there's 50 other votes, she may vote "no". The Republicans know they have some cover if they get one or two Democrats, since Pence can break a tie.
Senate: Republicans
Republicans will keep the Senate; they may even gain a seat.
Heitkamp will lose re-election. But so may Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Her numbers just aren't where a multi-term incumbent should be.
House: Democrats
Blue wave. Nancy Pelosi will become Speaker... again.
But more importantly, the Democrats will gain the gavel in all House Committees. There will be no more stone-walling with administrative officials. Subpoenas will be issued. And the Democrats (specifically, the new Ways and Means chairman) will be able to see President Trump's tax returns under a 1924 law.
2020: Biden
If Kamala Harris runs, she will benefit more from the Kavanaugh fallout than Lizzy Warren. There's no room in the Democrats' presidential primary for both Warren and Bernie Sanders. But if Kirsten Gillibrand runs, she may split #MeToo vote with Harris.
I think Joe Biden will run and ultimately win. Does he pick Harris or Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) as a running mate? Harris will help with the African-American vote (she's also part Indian-American; her father was from Jamaica, her mother from India). Klobuchar will help Democrats in the midwest. Biden will ensure the Democrats win Pennsylvania. With Michigan and Wisconsin, he wins the White House as well.
Yes:
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
No:
Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Susan Collins (R-ME)
First, I hope I am wrong and that the Kavanaugh nomination goes down instead. And his nomination very well may go down. But only if all the Democrats vote "no" together, as well as at least two of the following three: Collins, Flake and Murkowski.
But I think the Republicans are going to write off Collins for 2020, figuring the Democrats will flip the state. Trump's attack at this week's Mississippi rally might have been the last straw for Flake, especially if at least two of those three above in the "yes" prediction vote that way (since a 50-50 tie would be broken by Pence).
Heitkamp's probably going to lose re-election; she may view a "yes" vote as one last shot at giving her a chance. To use a football anology, her vote will be a "Hail Mary" pass. Manchin might have a fall-back if his "no" vote depresses Democrats' votes in his state. He has met with Trump. Could a cabinet position be in the offing if he loses?
Murkowski may be leaning closer to "no" than Manchin and Heitkamp. She may be taking a wait-and-see. If there's 50 other votes, she may vote "no". The Republicans know they have some cover if they get one or two Democrats, since Pence can break a tie.
Senate: Republicans
Republicans will keep the Senate; they may even gain a seat.
Heitkamp will lose re-election. But so may Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Her numbers just aren't where a multi-term incumbent should be.
House: Democrats
Blue wave. Nancy Pelosi will become Speaker... again.
But more importantly, the Democrats will gain the gavel in all House Committees. There will be no more stone-walling with administrative officials. Subpoenas will be issued. And the Democrats (specifically, the new Ways and Means chairman) will be able to see President Trump's tax returns under a 1924 law.
2020: Biden
If Kamala Harris runs, she will benefit more from the Kavanaugh fallout than Lizzy Warren. There's no room in the Democrats' presidential primary for both Warren and Bernie Sanders. But if Kirsten Gillibrand runs, she may split #MeToo vote with Harris.
I think Joe Biden will run and ultimately win. Does he pick Harris or Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) as a running mate? Harris will help with the African-American vote (she's also part Indian-American; her father was from Jamaica, her mother from India). Klobuchar will help Democrats in the midwest. Biden will ensure the Democrats win Pennsylvania. With Michigan and Wisconsin, he wins the White House as well.
36-40, FVIP
