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Turkey Threatening to Leave NATO? Good Riddance... and I Hope the Door Hits Them on the Way Out!

Turkey's president threatened a major blow to the US — but Trump looks to have called his bluff

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been threatening to leave NATO and the West behind for a long time, but he really doesn't have other good options.

Turkey engages in several behaviors that the rest of NATO finds unhelpful or downright toxic.
US President Donald Trump's sanctions on Turkey have tanked its economy — but instead of making good on the threats to walk, Turkey is holding on for dear life.

Turkey's economy has been poorly managed and relies on huge influxes of cash, which other potential allies like Russia or Iran just can't provide.

[quote]Turkey's economic woes are partly caused by a dispute over the fate of Andrew Brunson, an American pastor whose release Trump reportedly lobbied unsuccessfully for, prompting US sanctions that are contributing to the crisis.

Turkey has cozy relations with Russia and Iran, and Erdogan's suggestion that Ankara could find "new friends" seems tailor-made to bring fear to European and North American capitals.

But according to Jonathan Eyal, the international director of the Royal United Services Institute, Turkey has long been looking for other friends and allies, and that's part of the problem.

"Turkey has no intention of respecting the American sanctions on Iran," Eyal told Business Insider. "It has also said it respects none of the American priorities in Syria. It has offered to buy Russian missiles and other equipment."

He added: "At every count and on every part, it's gone against not only the US interests, but the interests of the Western alliance."

Turkey's on-again, off-again proposal to buy Russian missile defenses, for example, shows how the country has frequently courted over-the-line behavior much to the anger of NATO.

If Turkey were to buy Russian missile defenses, Russia would get a window into NATO's first line of defense. With the US's trillion-dollar F-35 stealth jet coming online specifically as an effort to defeat Russian defenses in the case of war, this represents a hard red line, and Congress has acted accordingly by banning the sale of F-35s to Turkey.[/quote]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/350166c8-2996-32e9-9189-c5e7db41eabe/ss_turkey%27s-president-threatened.html

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HerKing · 61-69, M

Strategically it would be very problematic if Turkey left NATO. Putin would love it and welcome them with open arms.

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room101 · 51-55, M

@HerKing @QuixoticSoul I agree with both of you. However, we have to ask ourselves (as if this is a decision for us lowly citizens of the world lol) what's preferable, an ally who is questionable at best or, no ally.

HerKing · 61-69, M

@room101 I hope my opinion isn't misinterpreted as being an endorsement of the incumbent dictator. It isn't.

room101 · 51-55, M

@HerKing You don't need to be concerned about that 👍

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

It was great when Turkey seemed like a stable democracy somehow shielding Europe for psychos in the Middle East. No need for the snarkiness king 🙄 @HerKing @room101

room101 · 51-55, M

@jackjjackson [b]Seemed[/b] like a stable democracy? It may have [b]seemed[/b] that way to some but try asking the many ethnic groups that have lived under Turkish rule just how stable and democratic it really was. Try asking the Kurds and the Armeninians to name just two.

Erm, where has @HerKing been snarky?

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Kings politcal pot shots of course. At one time there was hope for Turkey. Not saying it was ever “perfect”. @room101

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

This kind of shows you why Trump is calling the bluff. Putin will be the winner here if Turkey goes feral and trump has his instructions, and debts to Russian banks to pay.@HerKing

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@HerKing [quote]Strategically it would be very problematic if Turkey left NATO. Putin would love it and welcome them with open arms.[/quote]

@whowasthatmaskedman [quote]Putin will be the winner here if Turkey goes feral [/quote]

Wonder how it worked out for Russia the last time they thought they had an Islamic ally near their borders?

room101 · 51-55, M

@jackjjackson You clearly didn't notice, this is a political post. It says so at the very top of the page. Also, what pot shots did @HerKing take?

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero If you're talking about Syria, Turkey isn't dealing with a civil war. And, given the support that Erdogan has, it's very unlikely that there will ever be any kind of rebellion in Turkey.

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@room101 [quote]If you're talking about Syria...[/quote]

No.

"near their border"

Talking about Afghanistan, when the Soviets went in to prop up a Communist government.

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero Afghanistan is much further from Russian borders than Syria. In any event, again there was rebellion in Afghanistan. Again, that isn't the case in Turkey.

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@room101 [quote]Afghanistan is much further from Russian borders than Syria.[/quote]

You are thinking of how the borders are now.

As I said, "Wonder how it worked out for Russia the last time they thought they had an Islamic ally near their borders?"

[b]THIS[/b] is how the borders looked in 1979, when the Soviets merely crossed over a bridge from the USSR and into the neighboring country.

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EYDhWUNh44]

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero Fair point. However, all of those territories in the USSR's southern borders, are now Muslim countries. Do you think that the Muslim population didn't exist back then? Not that any of that is actually relevant.

The central point here is not distance. It's civil war and rebellion against the incumbent government/dictatorship. As I've said, that's not the case (and it's not likely to be the case) in Turkey.

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@room101 [quote]The central point here is not distance. It's civil war and rebellion against the incumbent government/dictatorship. As I've said, that's not the case (and it's not likely to be the case) in Turkey.[/quote]

I am not worried about Russia and Turkey becoming the successor to the Warsaw pact.

And as I've said before, I'd trade Turkey for Ukraine any day.

Because that's NATO's, pardon the expression, "Trump" card if Turkey leaves to kiss Putin's butt.

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero I don't see a Warsaw Pact type of scenario between Russia and Turkey. Both are militaristic and arrogant enough to believe that they can go it alone.

I don't understand your closing two sentences. Of course, should Turkey leave NATO, it will make the situation in Ukraine (aka Crimea????) more critical for NATO. However, how will this be a trade off? How is this a trump card?

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@room101 [quote]However, how will this be a trade off? How is this a trump card?[/quote]

Ukraine borders Russia; Turkey does not. Russia, defensively, is better off with a neutral Ukraine.

Strategically, Russia would be WORSE off with another large border with NATO to defend than thinking they'd be able to send a few ships through the Dardanelles.

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero Which is why Putin doesn't want Ukraine to join the EU and why he invaded and annexed Crimea. That's how things stand today. Regardless of Erdogan's sabre rattling. Regardless of the negligible efforts of NATO.

Are you suggesting that, should Turkey make good on its threats, NATO will speed up membership for Ukraine? It's been on the cards for some time and, as of March this year, it seems more likely. However, all it would take is for another Viktor Yanukovych to come into power, in Ukraine, and we can kiss that idea goodbye.

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero btw how do Russian ships get to the Dardanelles? Surely that presupposes Turkey allowing Russia to moor military vessels in its ports. And those ships getting there via.........what route????

Didn't we say that we're not concerned about a Warsaw Pact type of scenario between Russia and Turkey?

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

It IS political and the subject is Turkey. Despite that King couldn’t hel himself and felt compelled to go off topic for a snarky potshot. It’s what he does. Simply pointing it out for what it is. @room101

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@room101 [quote]Are you suggesting that, should Turkey make good on its threats, NATO will speed up membership for Ukraine?[/quote]

Absolutely.

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@room101 [quote]btw how do Russian ships get to the Dardanelles? Surely that presupposes Turkey allowing Russia to moor military vessels in its ports. And those ships getting there via.........what route????

Didn't we say that we're not concerned about a Warsaw Pact type of scenario between Russia and Turkey?[/quote]

Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits is an agreement from the interwar period that basically gives Turkey the right to deny warships passage through the Straits during time of war.

http://sam.baskent.edu.tr/belge/Montreux_ENG.pdf

I would not be concerned that, with Turkey out of NATO, Russian warships would have free access through the Straits from their Black Sea ports if Turkey were an ally of Russia or simply let Russian warships through the Straits.

The real danger of the Russian Navy in a war with NATO is their submarine force and those subs are mostly based near Murmansk (as well as in the Pacific).

And the advantage for NATO of Russia having to worry about the Ukrainian front more than offsets the issue of the Dardanelles.

jackjjackson · 61-69, M

Excellent analysis! @beckyromero

room101 · 51-55, M

@jackjjackson Again, what snarky potshot?

That Putin would love it if Turkey left NATO? That's what @beckyromero and I are discussing. What's snarky about that?

That he doesn't endorse dictators? Again, what's snarky about that?

room101 · 51-55, M

@beckyromero For Russia to get it's warships to the Dardanelles, from the Black Sea, they would first need to go through the Bosphorus and then through the Sea of Marmara. Subs may be able to pull that off undetected but, any kind of sizable fleet would be seen long before it got to the Bosphorus and certainly long before it got to the Dardanelles. Ergo, the Dardanelles is basically a non-issue.

Earlier, you said that Russia doesn't share a border with Turkey. Clearly that's true. However, they both do have coastlines in the Black Sea. Romania also has a coastline in the Black Sea and, is a NATO member. Bulgaria also has a coastline in the Black Sea and, is a NATO member. Factor in Ukraine and possibly Georgia, and the whole region quickly becomes a bit of a check-mate against Russia. With or without Turkey.

Basically, what would happen is a conflict/battle contained within the confines of the Black Sea. Mostly consisting of air strikes by NATO forces.

What I'm getting at is that, that whole region is not as pivotal strategically as it once was. That's why I said good riddance to bad rubbish.

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