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Is Thereasa May finished?

Rumours mount of an impending Conservative Party leadership bid.

A few months ago, the Government were forced by the EU to concede a soft Brexit deal by extension of the Irish border question. Details here:

https://similarworlds.com/18-Politics/1545470-Is-this-the-point-at-which-reality-bites-for

The hard-liners in the party won't stand for this, as I predicted at the time. There is no way of reconciling the contradictions and Brexit itself is a contradiction.

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eli1601 · 70-79, M

Serious question since I don't know that much about Brexit. Why does it have to be negotiated. Why can't the U.K just say, as of January 1 2019 we are gone.

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rhouse · 56-60, M

Because they want the benefits of a common economic union without the same obligations.@eli1601

CountScrofula · 41-45, M

@eli1601 Same reason you can't just get divorced when you feel like it. There's a contract, shared property, and a few delicate political issues to resolve that if unresolved could blow up. In the case of Northern Ireland, literally.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@eli1601 Most of our laws and our trade is tied up with the EU.

An actual no deal Brexit would mean planes stuck on tarmac, goods stuck in ports and WTO tariffs of 40% on some goods. Also legal constitutional chaos.

Its complicated but the complexity really matters.

rhouse · 56-60, M

The Troubles all over again just not because of religion. :-)

rhouse · 56-60, M

I love Britain but really hope this fails for them. I so badly want them to be begging France and Germany to allow them back in.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@rhouse We are too proud and too stupid to do those things

rhouse · 56-60, M

Only time will tell. This is a crazy world we live in. UK needs the world. The world needs UK. Germany still wants to be the leaders of the world. Oh lord....

eli1601 · 70-79, M

@CountScrofula So you negotiate and can't come to an agreement. Who arbitrates? A judge arbitrates a divorce, who would arbitrate Brexit?

rhouse · 56-60, M

UK could leave today if they really wanted to. The only problem is that they need the EU. No international law that I know of prevents a country from exercising their sovereignty. I think this was a direct result of the Treaty of Westphalia at the end of the Thirty Years War.

Northwest · M

@eli1601 [quote] since I don't know that much about Brexit[/quote]

That's quite alright. You don't know much about the US either.

eli1601 · 70-79, M

@Northwest 😂

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@rhouse We could legally leave tomorrow but it would be a disaster. Its the interlinking of world trade and power relations which prevent true sovereignty and Brexit won't change that.

rhouse · 56-60, M

Why would you say that to someone interested in participating in an honest discussion? @Northwest

rhouse · 56-60, M

Just so everyone knows, I was not advocating tomorrow. I was only pointing out the international law that applies and the background. @Burnley123

Northwest · M

@rhouse [quote]honest [/quote]

You misspelled "All hail the racist leader"

rhouse · 56-60, M

I guess I did. Discussion is good even if you don't want to hear the other point of view.@Northwest

eli1601 · 70-79, M

@Burnley123 Wouldn't it hurt the EU to try to put the screws to the UK. You must do a lot of trading with those countries

rhouse · 56-60, M

EU -= 27 countries
UK = 1 or 4 if you want to count England, Scotland, Ireland, and Wales separately.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@eli1601 Yes but it still hurts us more. Their economic strength is 5 or six times the power of ours and they are our biggest market by far. They know they hold the cards and negotiate tough. Our negotiators have tried to pretend to be tough to appears their base but have been forced to concede a lot of ground and that is the biggest reason why May is in trouble.

rhouse · 56-60, M

Burnley, where are you from? You can tell me via PM if you wish. I am an American living in England and am totally fascinated by this discussion. @Burnley123

Northwest · M

@rhouse [quote]I guess I did. Discussion is good even if you don't want to hear the other point of view[/quote]

You're young, and have not gone through 2 years of Trump trolls, and honest attempts to "reach out".

eli1601 · 70-79, M

@rhouse Yes but the UK must have a bigger economy than the great majority of those 27. Wouldn't the EU be cutting off their nose to spite their face?

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@rhouse I am from Burnley and live in London. I have to go now but I will respond to your PM

rhouse · 56-60, M

I haven't been called young for years. Thanks. I must admit that I might be young to some people but compared to most on here, I am "old as dirt"

rhouse · 56-60, M

Thank you. Are you in the financial sector by any chance? They are really going to take it in the shorts. @Burnley123

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