Is this the point at which reality bites for Brexit?

Its the Northern Ireland Question which has caused the latest huge controversy because of it just cannot be reconciled within the contradictions of what Brexit is supposed to be.

Basically, a 'hard-Brexit' (which is our Government's preferred option) means leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union. This means hard borders, check-points and possibly tariffs between Britain and the EU.

This border has to go somewhere and the Government of the Republic of Ireland (which is still in the EU) do not want it to exist between themselves and Northern Ireland because a lot of trade takes place between the two so they got the EU to pressurise Thereasa May into saying that Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) will have a frictionless border with the south. This means a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

Unfortunately for May and the Conservatives, their Government is propped up by a small hard-line Northern Ireland Party called the DUP, whose reason for existence is to fight to maintain the existing British status quo. They are basically the opposite of Sein Fein and there is no earthly way that they will accept any border between Northern Ireland and the UK. It would be like the UK saying that Northern Ireland is more Irish than British, so predictably enough they torpedoed a deal which would have these terms.

So Theresa May suffered two defeats on the same day to opposite sides. First, she surrendered to Ireland and the EU on the border issue. Then she surrendered to the DUP on her first surrender. FYI her recent election ran on the campaign slogan 'strong and stable'. Pressure is being put in the DUP and in IMO they are awful but then they are what they are and any strategy must account for that. May's strategy has accounted for nothing of anything.

An obvious answer to the problem would be to not have Brexit. That won't happen because people voted in the referendum so the s**t has to go down somehow. Another answer to the problem would be to have the whole of the UK stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union but the right of the Conservative Party cannot have that because they believe that this would be a sell-out.

On another note, Brexit is a huge threat to The Good Friday Agreement and the Northern Ireland Peace process.

If this all seems messy, complicated and ridiculous...well... it is. And this is just ONE issue with contradictions out of several.

Brexit was always an undeliverable fantasy. I have predicted that the Government could well fall in the coming months over this.

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firefall · 61-69, M

I'd be interested what odds I could get on the government falling in the next 12 months, because I agree, that seems the most likely.

Of course, there's another answer to the NI problem - pull Great Britain (but not the UK) out of the EU.... hahahahaha right

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@firefall LOL. I just looked it up. 2017 is 25-1 but there is no time so that would be a dumb bet.

2018 odds have tumbled to evens. That still looks tempting...

The good news is that Labour should win the election. The bad news is that we would have to sort out this mess.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@firefall paddyPower: Election in 2017 - 25-1
2018 - evens
2019 - 5/2
2020 - 7-1

firefall · 61-69, M

@Burnley123 yeah evens sounds pretty good to me, too

God knows what Labour would do .. carry on with Brexit? try to reverse course?

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@firefall I think Labour would carry on with Brexit but it would be a softer Brexit negotiated with a more sane strategy.

Corbyn and MacDonnell have never been fans of the EU and a lot of Labour MPs are in pro-Brexit seats. To date, less than a quarter of our population want a referendum re-run so they couldn't turn back even if they wanted too.

Brexit will be bad and Labour will be unfairly blamed for some of the mess but for the good of the country, this has to happen. It's getting hard to see the Tories being able to deliver any deal at all.

firefall · 61-69, M

Bad, I think, is going to prove to be a massive understatement, especially 5-10 years down the road.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@firefall Yes. It's just a question of how bad. Soft Brexit and damage limitation is the best achievable thing at this point.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@firefall A lot can happen in 5-10 years. The E:U may have gone bankrupt; Germany or France might withdraw from 'the partnership' and leave one country carrying the burden of debt. We've had a recession by Any other name for the last TEN years and nothing looks likely to alter that in the near future ! Countries can only go so far in not increasing their public sector pay to their workers !

firefall · 61-69, M

@Picklebobble2 yup, a lot can happen. But however the EU plays out, facing a tarriff wall into Europe is going to hurt the UK enormously.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@firefall Of course it will, that's the nature of the game they're playing.
But just suppose the UK give it a really good go !
Come up with trade deals and tariffs that actually make it WORK !

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Picklebobble2 @firefall The EU is itself weak and is perhaps even in irreversible decline but that actually makes Britain's negotiating situation worse. Why? Because they have more incentive to make us a bad example of what happens to those who leave.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 Which is why i think the No deal option is better than a bad deal.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Picklebobble2 No deal is the worst deal.

Literally, most of the ways in which we interact with the world are currently tied up in the EU, from our trade agreements to our laws. No deal means trains stuck on the tarmac, ferry ports jammed and constitutional chaos. WTO tariffs are 40% on some goods and trade deals typically take years to negotiate.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 ....You're starting to sound like a 'Remoaner'! lol😄
I hear what you're saying but i still think these fears are unfounded.

Trade organizations are a mess ! No matter WHO you have to deal with !
And the seeds of our downfall occurred long before the creation of a single currency within the E:U.
They happened the second the Thatcher governments sold off our power companies ! Our oilfields ! Our manufacturing ! Our water companies etc etc.
When your country becomes reliant on that which is NOW provided by another.......it's a slippery slope !

But i do think this is the ideal opportunity for a British government to make a stand and put it's people first without having to worry whether we meet somebody else's standards.
Do deals with who WE want to work with rather than having to with a questionable provider just because we happen to be in the same trade bloc.
It finally makes a government. A British government. Responsible for it's own things again.
And that can only be a good thing.

firefall · 61-69, M

[quote] A British government. Responsible for it's own things again.
And that can only be a good thing.[/quote] That strikes me as completely unsubstantiated optimism. Unalloyed British government has been a disaster since about 1905.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Picklebobble2 [quote]They happened the second the Thatcher governments sold off our power companies ! Our oilfields ! Our manufacturing ! Our water companies etc etc.[/quote]

This Corbynista ain't gonna argue with you about that one. 😜

I have lots of problems with the EU. In fact in days gone by I would have been considered a Eurosceptic. I also know that the sovereignty of old is hard to achieve in a globalised world. I am all for international socialism but Brexit ain't about to deliver that.

If have talked a load about this already so simpley put' "EU = bad. Brexit = worse". LOL