Will Special Counsel Mueller Indict Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort? How long will it take to impeach Donald Trump?

In the next month things will get VERY intense on the Trump-Russia front. The estimated timeline for an indictment under these specific circumstances (direct notice of future indictment to target): 15 to 60 days. Reasons for this sort of notice include telling the suspect to stay in jurisdiction; initiating CI talks; preventing destruction of evidence. So the first indictment will come in the window when Mueller was appointed: 3 to 6 months post-appointment. This would (a) explain why the FISA warrant story involving Manafort leaked today, and (b) seem to answer "Who will be indicted first?" That the FBI got a FISA warrant on a presidential campaign's Manager and then got it renewed means they had something good on Manafort. The Manafort investigation suggests Mueller has the charges to possibly put Manafort away for life. And that will be key. If Paul Manafort is looking at the rest of his life in a federal prison, the chances that he flips on President Trump rise exponentially. Mueller will need two or more flips to get Trump. Carl Bernstein implied tonight Rick Dearborn could flip. Flynn building a seven-figure/seven-person legal team suggests he plans to be a loyal soldier and not flip. Or Mueller won't offer it. Kushner would be a top flip target but he's family; turning on Trump would end his marriage. And he may be willing to do a brief bid. We can't forget that Kushner's father—his biological father—went to prison. So Jared may have a higher tolerance for the idea than most. Carter Page was interviewed by the FBI more hours (10) than anyone. But he appears to be a Russophile ideologue—so, less likely to flip. Given tonight's FISA news we don't know if Mueller's plan is to indict Manafort for money laundering or something closer to espionage. But federal prosecutors don't bluster. If Mueller's agents told Manafort he will be indicted, Manafort will be indicted. Expect a line from Republicans to the effect of, "Well, we knew this was coming for Paul, but this has nothing to do with Trump." Wrong. Carl Bernstein is wrong to say the indictment could be a FARA charge. A prosecutor would wait to threaten indictment until he had more. Mueller's pre-dawn raid, grand jury interview of Manafort's spox, and large money laundering prosecutor team say this is more than FARA. That said, when prosecutors indict, they indict on all they have at the time. So Manafort will face FARA and likely other charges too. Remember, one reason to charge Manafort first is to get him to talk about Trump. He won't do that unless he's facing the maximum pain. So any criminal lawyer will say, don't expect rinky-dink charges on Manafort. He'll be hammered—and Mueller will add more as he gets it. Manafort is a hard man—perhaps he won't flip. But by throwing the book at him, Mueller sends a message to other Trump aides: *flip now*. There's no doubt Mueller is being aggressive. And no doubt we've seen only a fraction of what he has—so he must have seen bad stuff. It seems like this is taking forever. Poor person in a state court? Yes—things would go faster. Bringing down a POTUS via a complex federal probe? This is just how that goes. Trump WILL be impeached. Historians will disagree on "the beginning of the end" of Trump. But his campaign manager getting indicted? That'll be a popular pick. So we now know that the Trump-Russia scandal will go to DEFCON 1 either this month or next. It'd be a shock if it takes till November. So what happens if Manafort flips? First: it'll leak very quickly, and Mueller knows that. So he'd want to be ready to move on others. Why? The moment any flip leaks, destruction of evidence and possible flight and secret witness-tampering plots go into overdrive ASAP. That said, a leaked flip could also lead to a "rush to the courthouse": witnesses rushing to flip and get deals before they're gone. So Mueller must balance the chance of unanticipated gains coming from a high-profile flip and dangers/resource drains stemming from it. Cooperating individuals need protection/management, as many people want to tamper with them or even (in a big case like this) hurt them. Details of a flipped witness' proffer leak about the same time as the leak of the flip—giving others tips on how to change their story. Prosecutors may gain access to new flippable witnesses, but they also immediately lose access to any then-cooperative probe targets. That's why Mueller has to have all his ducks in a row on the day that he signs any sort of deal with a witness like Paul Manafort. He also needs to play the pre-flip period right: just having witnesses think Manafort could flip could send them running to Mueller. Even though we're pre-indictment, tonight's news changes everything in the probe from a legal/strategic standpoint. Note that we don't know the Manafort tap picked up Trump. But it's likely—given the men talked and taps are non-selective once set up. What we do know is that tonight's news means a slew of new Trump campaign-Russia contacts we didn't know about until earlier tonight. That's why CNN's scoop tonight matters—and not just the NYT's. CNN says the FBI has Russians claiming additional contacts with Manafort. Today's news Sen. Grassley (R) still plans a bill preventing Trump from firing Mueller (despite Trump's denials he's considering it) suggests that those in Congress on Intel and Judiciary caught wind of tonight's news (or the equivalent) well before all of us did. Remember: we already know Manafort spoke to Priebus about anti-Clinton kompromat in January; Priebus blocked him from getting to Trump. But we long ago learned that people do end-arounds past POTUS' CoS. So we should assume Manafort reached Trump by phone on that issue. Don't forget Trump only fired Manafort because he had to—and Manafort continued living in Trump Tower and speaking to Trump thereafter. So watch the president very carefully over the next week—because there's every reason to think tonight's news inculpates Donald Trump. So why did Mueller seek a no-knock, pre-dawn warrant on Manafort? Usually only done in cases where destruction of evidence is likely? It suggests that Mueller was looking for evidence of something beyond financial crimes. It's often possible to get financial records from various sources, and usually there isn't a single toilet-flushable, "smoking gun" document. My point—Trump is THE target of Mueller's probe. Every choice made is made with that in mind. So the manner of the Manafort raid is more likely about Trump than just getting one more doc in a mountain of money-laundering docs. Today ranks, taken in sum, as the biggest day of news in the Trump-Russia scandal since the appointment of Bob Mueller way back in May. I know it's hard to accept investigations take this long; they do. I know it's hard to keep feeling Trump will be impeached; he will be.

It's late. Goodnight.