El-Sayed's win in Michigan
El-Sayed was projected to beat Haley Stevens by double digits, instead, he barely squeaked out a win by a percentage point. This doesn't bode well for November as he was already polling significantly behind the Republican Mike Rogers, while Stevens was a few points ahead. The takeaway is that El-Sayed's support isn't as strong as expected, either because his supporters thought it was a done deal and didn't bother to vote, or because the polls were overcounting his support for some other reason. The polls showing him leading Stevens significantly were mostly internal ones, and it's a sign of his lack of campaign experience that he even released them. A candidate should always project that the election is close and every vote counts.
The takeaway should be that El-Sayed's main campaign message of "my opponent is a Jew-lover" and demonizing AIPAC the way an Evangelical Christian would demonize Planned Parenthood may resonate with progressives and DSA types, but not with the Democrats in general, and probably will be even less appealing to the electorate as a whole. This is his first campaign for elected office (El-Sayed is a tech millionaire, not a politician), so he may not be able to thread the needle adroitly enough. If he makes obsession with Israel the centerpiece of his campaign, he risks alienating moderates, and if he de-emphasizes it and pivots to the center, his most fervent supporters will call him a sellout.
It would be unfortunate if El-Sayed's probable loss to Rogers means the Democrats lose their chance for a Senate majority. Regardless, this election will determine the Democrats' approach in 2028. If El-Sayed wins, that will prove progressive antizionists can win in swing states. If he loses, the establishment will say "I told you so" and progressives will be shut out of any races outside of deep blue cities, which may be the only places their message resonates.
The takeaway should be that El-Sayed's main campaign message of "my opponent is a Jew-lover" and demonizing AIPAC the way an Evangelical Christian would demonize Planned Parenthood may resonate with progressives and DSA types, but not with the Democrats in general, and probably will be even less appealing to the electorate as a whole. This is his first campaign for elected office (El-Sayed is a tech millionaire, not a politician), so he may not be able to thread the needle adroitly enough. If he makes obsession with Israel the centerpiece of his campaign, he risks alienating moderates, and if he de-emphasizes it and pivots to the center, his most fervent supporters will call him a sellout.
It would be unfortunate if El-Sayed's probable loss to Rogers means the Democrats lose their chance for a Senate majority. Regardless, this election will determine the Democrats' approach in 2028. If El-Sayed wins, that will prove progressive antizionists can win in swing states. If he loses, the establishment will say "I told you so" and progressives will be shut out of any races outside of deep blue cities, which may be the only places their message resonates.
