I don't think there is a gold standard. My experiences with conspiracy theorists here indicate that they don't wait for "proof" or "confirmation" or even "evidence." They tend to believe whatever makes them feel good (superior, enraged, victimized, whatev) and avoid anything that might challenge their chosen opinions.
SW-User
@ElwoodBlues It's the old playing chess with a pigeon thing isn't it. As soon as their beliefs are challenged "they knock over the pieces, shit on the board, and strut around like they've won". I get it