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Peace Talk Uncertain

US VP JD Vance was supposed to return to Pakistan for talks but hadn’t left Washington yet. Iran says it won’t attend more talks if the US keeps “pressure and threats”.

My Take: Right now it’s a classic standoff: Trump extended the ceasefire but kept the Navy blockade, which Iran sees as an act of war, so they’re rejecting talks while “pressure and threats” remain. VP Vance not traveling to Pakistan signals the US isn’t fully prioritizing diplomacy yet, and Iran firing on a ship in Hormuz shows the ceasefire is already shaky. Both sides are posturing for leverage — the US wants uranium concessions before easing pressure, Iran wants sanctions/blockade relief before negotiating seriously. Until one side decides the cost of no deal is worse than conceding, talks will stay stuck and the situation remains unstable.
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tRump has maneuvered the US into a lose-lose situation. Opening the Strait of Hormuz is what he needs, but Iran demands far more concessions than tRump is willing to give. tRump's threats to bomb civilian infrastructure are unpopular in the US; plus, that bombing would probably be a war crime. He has very little leverage left.

Furthermore, Iran understands that continued high oil prices undermine tRump's domestic and international support. The more Iran delays, the weaker tRump gets. For the US, it's lose-lose.





Let's remember how we got here. In 2015, Obama solved the Iran nuclear issue with the JCPOA agreement, lifting sanctions in exchange for nuclear inspections. In 2018, tRump un-solved the Iran nuclear issue by blowing up the JCPOA agreement and re-imposing sanctions. tRump said he could make a better deal, but failed to, and Iran restarted uranium enrichment.

I'm sure tRump would love to get back to the conditions of the JCPOA. But to come to an agreement requires trust, and tRump destroyed all trust with his Feb 28 surprise attack. We're in a deep hole of tRump's own digging. SAD!!
@ElwoodBlues And you clearly understand that you are ALL in it..😷
Strictmichael75 · 61-69, M
@ElwoodBlues Demented dozing don should be locked up!

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