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plungesponge · 41-45, M
Serious question though, are all these moves really wise? I get the desire to punish Russia but it looks to me like their economy is inextricably meshed with Europe, so trade will find a way. And I'm not so sure the average Russian will view these sanctions as a necessary response as much as an attack from the West.
If anything, it looks to me like this incentivizes Russia, China, quite likely some European countries too to look for an escape hatch out of the USD/swift system, and other countries that the US will need oil from Iran, Venezuela are more allied with Russia than the US. All in all, this feels like a sheriff busting into the local saloon and demanding the bar be shutdown because the proceeds are going to the local gang. That may be justifiable, but is everyone else actually going to react in the spirit intended, or a they predictably going to find alternative arrangements while learning how to subvert the current order?
If anything, it looks to me like this incentivizes Russia, China, quite likely some European countries too to look for an escape hatch out of the USD/swift system, and other countries that the US will need oil from Iran, Venezuela are more allied with Russia than the US. All in all, this feels like a sheriff busting into the local saloon and demanding the bar be shutdown because the proceeds are going to the local gang. That may be justifiable, but is everyone else actually going to react in the spirit intended, or a they predictably going to find alternative arrangements while learning how to subvert the current order?
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@plungesponge Good Question..The Russian economy is like the US in some respects (not all).. It has Military tech it sells globally and a few exports like food and energy. But much of the rest is for internal consumption mostly. The other part of their economy comes from financial off shore. (Cynics might call this money laundering) So the economy is very vulnerable to the payment and trade systems being interrupted. And the 1% rich have a lot of their cash tied up in other countries.. So unlike America, it will hit them first and hardest. Its not the working class Russians stuck at home who are most inconvenienced. Although it will be them who go hungery first.😷
plungesponge · 41-45, M
@whowasthatmaskedman now that I think about it. These moves do make sense, as long as everyone actually understands they are temporary. Eg a starving Russian population is not something Europe or China is going to sit back and allow on their doorstep, hell they won't even let North Korea fall due to the fallout. But a short sharp economic haircut sends a message eg the next time Putin appears on state TV with a war council, the average Russian will know pain is coming their way too
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@plungesponge True. But lets not pretend these moves by the West are not without an angle. Putins friends are his friends because he made them rich and protected. But there is so much more in the way of Asset seizure they could do. And a hungry Russian population will turn on Putin and his people first.. Assuming some enterprising General doesnt make a deal with the West through Back Channels..
Then lets not for a second forget that Putin knows all of this. Its probably already sleepless in the Kremlin and one way or another this could get bloody there. Thats why Putin is trying so hard to get Nato to cross the line and make him look legit.😷
Then lets not for a second forget that Putin knows all of this. Its probably already sleepless in the Kremlin and one way or another this could get bloody there. Thats why Putin is trying so hard to get Nato to cross the line and make him look legit.😷
plungesponge · 41-45, M
@whowasthatmaskedman interesting, I hadn't thought about Putin baiting NATO
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@plungesponge Why else would you bomb the snot out of nuclear power plants and maternity Hospitals and let it be reported?😷