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Who Is the Leader of Syria’s Rebel Offensive?

Who Is the Leader of Syria’s Rebel Offensive?

By Adam Rasgon. & Raja Abdulrahim.
(Adam Rasgon reported from Jerusalem, and Raja Abdulrahim from Istanbul.) for NY Times.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani spearheaded a lightning assault that led to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

After attracting little notice for years, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani spearheaded a stunning lightning offensive that led to the fall over the weekend of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria after over 13 years of brutal civil war.

Mr. al-Jolani, 42, is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group once linked to Al Qaeda that has controlled most of Idlib Province, in northwestern Syria, for years during a long stalemate in the conflict.

“By far, he’s the most important player on the ground in Syria,” said Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst of jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group, who has met Mr. al-Jolani several times in the past five years.

In late November, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched the most significant challenge to Mr. al-Assad’s rule in a decade, sweeping through Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, before charging south, capturing territory across several provinces without facing much resistance.

By Sunday, rebels were celebrating in Syria’s capital, Damascus, and declared it free of Mr. al-Assad. Syria’s longtime leader left the country after holding talks with “several parties of the armed conflict,” according to Russia’s Foreign Ministry.

Born Ahmed Hussein al-Shara in Saudi Arabia, Mr. al-Jolani is the child of Syrian exiles, according to Arab media reports. In the late 1980s, his family moved back to Syria, and in 2003, he went to neighboring Iraq to join Al Qaeda and fight the U.S. occupation.

He spent several years in a U.S. prison in Iraq, according to the Arab media reports and U.S. officials.

He later emerged in Syria around the start of the civil war and formed the Nusra Front, a Qaeda affiliate, which eventually evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. At some point, he took on the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

Since breaking ties with Al Qaeda, Mr. al-Jolani and his group have tried to gain international legitimacy by eschewing global jihadist ambitions and focusing on organized governance in Syria.

But the U.S. government — which designated his group a terrorist organization — still offers a $10 million bounty for Mr. al-Jolani.

In recent years, Mr. al-Jolani and his group have built an administration in the territory they govern, collecting taxes, providing limited public services and even issuing identity cards to residents, according to a United Nations report. They have also come under criticism from inside and outside the country for using authoritarian tactics and cracking down on dissent.

Questions have emerged about what kind of government Mr. al-Jolani would support and whether Syrians would accept it. In Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has espoused a government guided by a conservative and at times hard-line Sunni Islamist ideology.

Since the rebel offensive began, Mr. al-Jolani has sought to reassure minority communities from other sects and religions. Some analysts said he now faces the test of his life: whether he can unite Syrians.

Mr. Drevon likened the situation facing Mr. al-Jolani to those of other leaders who have taken on greater prominence during war, like President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

“In a way, this is his Zelensky moment,” Mr. Drevon said. “Zelensky was criticized before the war in Ukraine, and then he became a statesman. The question is can Jolani make the same transformation.”

transformation.”

Adam Rasgon is a reporter for The Times in Jerusalem, covering Israeli and Palestinian affairs.

Raja Abdulrahim reports on the Middle East and is based in Jerusalem.
Northwest · M
Up to hundreds of thousands of Syrians were born in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Countries. It does not mean they're refugees, or fleeing the Syrian regime. This usually means their parents were working in Saudi Arabia.

The bloodless takeover was engineered by the US, Russia and France.

Outline of the deal:

- Assad will order his troops to stand down
- The government remains in place
- al-Shara wil have no role at this point, but hopes to become President at a future election.
- The current Prime Minister remains in place, with Mohammed al-Bashir hoping to become Prime Minister, or an interim government. The latter is an Electrical Engineer, who's been acting as Prime Minister for a provisional government in the Idlib Province (controlled by al-Shara). He focused 100% on introducing eGovernment in Idblib which eliminated corruption in real estate transactions, and other areas dealing with government bureaucracy.
- Russia gets to keep its bases in Syria
- If the "rebels" try to use violence, Russia will carpet bomb them.
Northwest · M
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow

I see you very selectively avoided mentioning that "al Shara" or HTS is run by a guy who was a leader of Al Qaeda and ISIS and that even according to the US government Idlib has been ground zero for Jihadis for a decade. And omitted the fact the FBI has a bounty on Al-Jolani's head for being the head of a terrorist organization.


Details, details.

But being a good little Liberal interventionist I guess it is your job to give him a Liberal Democrat makeover.

So you're stalking me now. Not triggered are you?

It wasn't part of the context. You now, context? Look it up.

I explained who Al Shara is, and his background in another thread here, that provided the CORRECT context.

Context, Context, Context. Learn what that is.
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The guy is a leader of Al Qaeda and ISIS on it's 3rd of 4th rebrand backed by the wannabe Ottoman sultan Erdogan. Along with a bunch of mercs from all over the Islamic world.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
Sadly if this follows the pattern, as soon as the common enemy is removed, the only emnities will resurface and the squabbling over who gets what will cause more bloodshed..😷
Northwest · M
@whowasthatmaskedman Any predictions on how this turns out, is purely speculative.

I was pointing out, that the author was reading too much into his parents leaving Syria, and having him in Saudi Arabia. Making it sound as if they were exiled.

This is pretty common for Egyptians, Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis, Palestinians, etc. They live and work in Saudi Arabia (and othe Gulf countries), but can never become Saudis.

Here's what I said in another thread yesterday: He started out as a medical student, a couple of years later, he switched majors to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Got captured by the US. Spent time in Abu Ghraib, got released at some point (most captured were released following the Abu Ghraib scandal. I was in Syria when that happened, and my host was outraged, so I pointed out to him that Assad's jails are multiples of Abu Ghraib).

He graduated to ISIS, and when he tired of that, he continued his graduate studies with Al Nusra. The US put a $10M price on his head (has not removed yet).

The latter was financed by the Gulf Countries, with Sultan Erdogan providing the logistics/training.

At some point, he decide to become moderate, but that was after ISIS was edged out of Idlib.

At that point, Idlib was under Al Nusra, or whatever Al Nusra was morphing into to, and while they were technically at war with Assad, the front was inactive, thanks to the understanding Trump reached with Russia and Turkey, making Idlib a defacto separate state, with a couple of branches: military and civilian.

He wormed his way to the top of the military branch and Mohammed al-Bashir, won the office of Prime Minister, running on a eGovernment and automation platform.

For those years, Idlib was calm, ran efficiently, people were not abused and the population was happy, in a semi-secular, but overall Muslims "state" (like Egypt for instance, except that Egyptians are not happy).

So, fast forward to now. He became the ideal candidate to "lead" a "peaceful" transition, and the Idlib Prime Minister to Syria Prime Minister.

ISIS remains out there, and over the past few days, the US has been ponding the shit out of their positions (and the new power in Damascus is ignoring it), and Israel is also conducting air raids, to destroy the remaining Hizballah ammo depots.

So far no one is getting harassed, and the guy is attempting to convince the Aleppo Christian Bishop to accept a temporary positions as Governor of Aleppo.

The US, Russia and the US other Western allies, are going to say "look, the guy is reformed, and look how good the transition is going, with no bloodshed, and everyone is happy".

When we won against Germany, we "removed" the top echelon, and kept "middle management". The latter accepted the new order and the rest is history.

When we "won" in Iraq, we removed the "Baath", the middle management, screwing the pooch in the process, and the rest if history.

The new regime, seems to be mirroring the Germany playbook. If they do, the public will support them. If they switch direction, then it's going to be another quagmire, just like Iraq.

The Assad regime atrocities are coming to light now. And it's worse than anyone ever imagined.
USA Israel. Expanding greater Israel is not really new. Call em Al quaida.
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