Dangerous And Unpredictable Situation Developing In The Middle East
A hodge podge of "Islamist" groups, pushed by Turkey and the UAE starting a major push into Syrian-Government controlled areas last week.
This avalanched into a near total collapse of the Syrian Army, and pullout from the Aleppo, largest Syria city, and the opposition is rumored to be nearing control of Hama, which puts them on the outskirts of Homs, Latakia, Tartous and Homs.
The latter two border Lebanon.
To clarify, this is not a single group of rebels, it's a cocktail of armed groups, with a single objective: depose Assad.
By redeploying his troops, Assad seems to be acknowledging the obvious: Russia, Iran and Hezballah have all been dealt major blows, and are no longer capable of sustaining the long term, and costly effort to keep Assad in power of Syria.
One of the possibilities, is the partitioning of the Syria, in to Assad controlled part, that includes Latakia, Tartous, parts of Damascus and parts of Homs.
Russia will concentrate on defending this territory, because it contains the permanent naval, land and air bases Putin signed 99 year free leases for, and Assad will continue to be a "President".
Iran, through Iraq, will continue to supply personnel and weapons to support this enclave.
The other part of Syria, once free of Assad, will instantly experience another civil war, to determine which Islamist faction wins.
The Kurdish part may splinter into its own enclave.
The more immediate impact, may be felt in Lebanon, where the Syrian rebels, enhanced by 2 million refugees who already live in Lebanon, will attempt to take over Lebanon, a failed state, with no real armed forces, and a population that's divided along sectarian lines.
Nothing good can come out of this.
This avalanched into a near total collapse of the Syrian Army, and pullout from the Aleppo, largest Syria city, and the opposition is rumored to be nearing control of Hama, which puts them on the outskirts of Homs, Latakia, Tartous and Homs.
The latter two border Lebanon.
To clarify, this is not a single group of rebels, it's a cocktail of armed groups, with a single objective: depose Assad.
By redeploying his troops, Assad seems to be acknowledging the obvious: Russia, Iran and Hezballah have all been dealt major blows, and are no longer capable of sustaining the long term, and costly effort to keep Assad in power of Syria.
One of the possibilities, is the partitioning of the Syria, in to Assad controlled part, that includes Latakia, Tartous, parts of Damascus and parts of Homs.
Russia will concentrate on defending this territory, because it contains the permanent naval, land and air bases Putin signed 99 year free leases for, and Assad will continue to be a "President".
Iran, through Iraq, will continue to supply personnel and weapons to support this enclave.
The other part of Syria, once free of Assad, will instantly experience another civil war, to determine which Islamist faction wins.
The Kurdish part may splinter into its own enclave.
The more immediate impact, may be felt in Lebanon, where the Syrian rebels, enhanced by 2 million refugees who already live in Lebanon, will attempt to take over Lebanon, a failed state, with no real armed forces, and a population that's divided along sectarian lines.
Nothing good can come out of this.
