Netanyahu Has the Power to Prevent a Regional War – All It Takes Is a Deal With Hamas
Haaretz
Jack Khoury
Aug 4, 2024 10:46 pm IDT
The tensions over the threat of a regional escalation in the next few days can be felt in every corner of the Middle East. But beyond the "technical" questions (will Iran attack Israel itself or make do with attacks by its proxies? What will the attack's targets be?), one key question echoes through living rooms and television studios: Will an all-out regional war break out?
The fear is great, and it is giving rise to horror scenarios. Nothing is clear, and nobody has unequivocal answers. Travel advisories and calls by various countries for their citizens to leave the region, alongside announcements by airlines that they are canceling flights, have only increased the tension. The Middle East is sitting on a giant barrel of explosives and waiting for something to happen.
Ever since 12 children were killed when a rocket – fired by Hezbollah, according to the Israel Defense Forces – landed in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams a little over a week ago, the region has been on a slippery slope.
Let's argue that an incident of that magnitude required Israel to respond, though it happened in territory that isn't internationally recognized as being Israeli. And Israel did in fact respond, surgically, by assassinating senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in the heart of the organization's stronghold, Beirut's Dahiyeh neighborhood.
But while the public was still trying to digest that, news of another assassination arrived – this time it was the head of Hamas' political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran. And since then, a large-scale war has become a realistic possibility. The idea that Iran or its proxies might not respond never even comes up for discussion. The only questions are how and when.
Nevertheless, one man has the power to remove the fuse from the ticking bomb, or at least to cool the impending conflict – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If he announced that he is going for a deal with Hamas that would ensure a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and the return of the hostages held there, and then convene a cabinet meeting and a Knesset debate on the issue, even though the Knesset is on recess, this would guarantee an immediate drop in the level of tension.
Such an announcement wouldn't in any way be a capitulation to Iran and Hezbollah, and certainly not to Hamas. The fact is that all of Israel's top defense officials, as well as America and all the other countries in the region, are in favor of a deal.
A majority of the Israeli public also supports a deal, from the hostages' families and their backers through the opposition parties, which have promised Netanyahu a safety net to prevent far-right ministers from toppling his government.
Netanyahu even has some kind of victory picture, or rather two – one of Shukr's coffin from Beirut and one of Haniyeh's coffin from Tehran. He could even add a third from Gaza, now that the army confirmed the head of Hamas' military wing, Mohammed Deif, was in fact successfully assassinated.
Granted, Israelis don't view the enormous destruction in Gaza and the inconceivable death toll as reasons to end the war. But the prime minister has enough substantive reasons for saying yes to a deal.
It's true that military responses by Iran and Hezbollah to Israel's assassinations are apparently unavoidable. But it's also true that other such attacks have occurred during this war and passed relatively without incident.
Netanyahu, who before Iran's direct attack on Israel in April chose to risk relying on Israel's aerial defense systems, with support from America and countries in the region, can't rely on this again, since nobody can promise a similar success. And that's especially true given that Hezbollah's response is expected to be substantial, while the Houthis are expected to join in as well.
But an announcement that a deal is imminent would compel Iran and its allies to moderate their response. Both Beirut and Tehran have enough reasons not to violate the rules of the game by starting a war whose end they too are unable to predict. They will still have the option of retaliating, but a deal with Hamas that would end the war would enable them to respond in a moderate fashion and would allow all sides to contain the event.
This doesn't entail negotiations on uprooting settlements, ceding territory or establishing a Palestinian state. It only entails bringing the hostages home, ending a war that has lasted for almost 10 months and a good chance of preventing a conflagration the likes of which the Middle East has never known.
All it takes is for Israel to say yes to a deal. And that depends on Netanyahu. It ought to be a no-brainer.
OP Note: The Israeli left has been wondering what the entire world, including the US: how do you negotiate a deal, after you assassinate the guy in charge of negotiations?
Jack Khoury
Aug 4, 2024 10:46 pm IDT
The tensions over the threat of a regional escalation in the next few days can be felt in every corner of the Middle East. But beyond the "technical" questions (will Iran attack Israel itself or make do with attacks by its proxies? What will the attack's targets be?), one key question echoes through living rooms and television studios: Will an all-out regional war break out?
The fear is great, and it is giving rise to horror scenarios. Nothing is clear, and nobody has unequivocal answers. Travel advisories and calls by various countries for their citizens to leave the region, alongside announcements by airlines that they are canceling flights, have only increased the tension. The Middle East is sitting on a giant barrel of explosives and waiting for something to happen.
Ever since 12 children were killed when a rocket – fired by Hezbollah, according to the Israel Defense Forces – landed in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams a little over a week ago, the region has been on a slippery slope.
Let's argue that an incident of that magnitude required Israel to respond, though it happened in territory that isn't internationally recognized as being Israeli. And Israel did in fact respond, surgically, by assassinating senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in the heart of the organization's stronghold, Beirut's Dahiyeh neighborhood.
But while the public was still trying to digest that, news of another assassination arrived – this time it was the head of Hamas' political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran. And since then, a large-scale war has become a realistic possibility. The idea that Iran or its proxies might not respond never even comes up for discussion. The only questions are how and when.
Nevertheless, one man has the power to remove the fuse from the ticking bomb, or at least to cool the impending conflict – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If he announced that he is going for a deal with Hamas that would ensure a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and the return of the hostages held there, and then convene a cabinet meeting and a Knesset debate on the issue, even though the Knesset is on recess, this would guarantee an immediate drop in the level of tension.
Such an announcement wouldn't in any way be a capitulation to Iran and Hezbollah, and certainly not to Hamas. The fact is that all of Israel's top defense officials, as well as America and all the other countries in the region, are in favor of a deal.
A majority of the Israeli public also supports a deal, from the hostages' families and their backers through the opposition parties, which have promised Netanyahu a safety net to prevent far-right ministers from toppling his government.
Netanyahu even has some kind of victory picture, or rather two – one of Shukr's coffin from Beirut and one of Haniyeh's coffin from Tehran. He could even add a third from Gaza, now that the army confirmed the head of Hamas' military wing, Mohammed Deif, was in fact successfully assassinated.
Granted, Israelis don't view the enormous destruction in Gaza and the inconceivable death toll as reasons to end the war. But the prime minister has enough substantive reasons for saying yes to a deal.
It's true that military responses by Iran and Hezbollah to Israel's assassinations are apparently unavoidable. But it's also true that other such attacks have occurred during this war and passed relatively without incident.
Netanyahu, who before Iran's direct attack on Israel in April chose to risk relying on Israel's aerial defense systems, with support from America and countries in the region, can't rely on this again, since nobody can promise a similar success. And that's especially true given that Hezbollah's response is expected to be substantial, while the Houthis are expected to join in as well.
But an announcement that a deal is imminent would compel Iran and its allies to moderate their response. Both Beirut and Tehran have enough reasons not to violate the rules of the game by starting a war whose end they too are unable to predict. They will still have the option of retaliating, but a deal with Hamas that would end the war would enable them to respond in a moderate fashion and would allow all sides to contain the event.
This doesn't entail negotiations on uprooting settlements, ceding territory or establishing a Palestinian state. It only entails bringing the hostages home, ending a war that has lasted for almost 10 months and a good chance of preventing a conflagration the likes of which the Middle East has never known.
All it takes is for Israel to say yes to a deal. And that depends on Netanyahu. It ought to be a no-brainer.
OP Note: The Israeli left has been wondering what the entire world, including the US: how do you negotiate a deal, after you assassinate the guy in charge of negotiations?
