Israel-Hamas Hostage Negotiations Hit Critical Juncture as Netanyahu's Statement Jeopardizes Progress
Haaretz
Amos Harel
May 4, 2024 7:35 pm IDT
Negotiations toward a hostage deal with Hamas reached a critical point this weekend. The Egyptian and Qatari mediators – perhaps the American ones, too – bombarded Arab media outlets with optimistic forecasts in a bid to spur Israel and Hamas to commit themselves to a deal. On Saturday, it remained unclear whether the Hamas delegation in Cairo will respond to the mediators positively or reservedly ("Yes, but…").
The Biden administration, concerned about yet another failed effort, dispatched CIA chief William Burns to Cairo. The Washington Post reported that as part of the efforts to salvage the negotiations, the U.S. demanded that Qatar expel Hamas leaders from its soil if the organization rejects the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, quickly began responding to the optimistic reports on Saturday, issuing an announcement disseminated among Israeli media outlets.
In the guise of a "senior diplomatic official," Netanyahu announced that "in contrast to reports, Israel will under no circumstances agree to end the war as part of a deal involving the release of hostages. The IDF will enter Rafah and destroy the Hamas battalions remaining there, whether there is a temporary truce for releasing the hostages or not."
Netanyahu's announcement elicited enraged reactions from both sides of the debate. Even on the right, many already don't believe the prime minister's empty promises about the taking of Rafah and "absolute victory." The Hostages and Missing Families Forum(and military top brass) are concerned that with this announcement, Netanyahu is harming mediators' efforts deliberately. Furthermore, such a blunt statement could widen the rift between Israel and the U.S., which has recently praised Israel for its flexibility while laying responsibility for delays in reaching a deal.
Israel's revived threat to enter Rafah should be taken with caution. The military is indeed making preparations for capturing Rafah, but these have been halted and restarted many times over during the last three months. Last week, in a phone conversation between President Joe Biden and Netanyahu amid a visit to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Americans emphasized that in their view, an invasion of Rafah was unacceptable – certainly without Israel taking careful and systematic steps to evacuate the more than one million Palestinian civilians currently in the area. It's more likely that Israel is leaning toward a limited military move in the city, if any at all.
The U.S. administration has been dropping hints about possible sanctions over a Rafah invasion. These include a suspension of the near-automatic veto cast by the U.S. at the UN Security Council on anti-Israel resolutions and an embargo on or delay of vital arms supplies to Israel. These are huge risks for Israel, particularly if an invasion of Rafah leads to further escalation with Hezbollah and Iran. Israel needs the firm support of the U.S. in the event of a multi-arena war breaking out. Netanyahu is still presumably well aware of what his allies on the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are refusing to grasp.
There is also the growing issue of international legitimacy. Western countries' support for the military's moves is diminishing further the longer the war goes on. Any incident in Rafah resulting in civilian casualties would draw international attention, with the Palestinians trying to present any incident as an Israeli war crime, as they did with the affair of the "mass grave" discovered near a hospital in Khan Yunis.
There is another reason for remaining cautious in the face of optimistic forecasts in Arab media. The final arbiter on the matter – the only one, really – is Hamas' leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. The success of the October 7 attack consolidated his status in the organization, at the expense of its tradition of shared decision-making. Since then, he has been spearheading a tough, uncompromising stance, seemingly disregarding in particular Hamas' leaders in Qatar. In comparison to December and January, Sinwar appears not to feel he is in serious trouble. Israeli military pressure is currently only theoretical, the expanded humanitarian aid is chilling some of the fury felt by Gaza residents toward him, and the eruption on American campuses only complicates Israel's diplomatic situation. Such an analysis of the situation, seen through the eyes of a fanatic holding a murderous ideology, makes the chances of him compromising slim.
The latest American announcements have made it clear that achieving a deal depends on Hamas. This followed a genuine show of flexibility on Israel's part, agreed to by Netanyahu under pressure from the other members of the war cabinet. The main stumbling block in the negotiations is the subject of ending the war. Hamas is willing to proceed with the release, in several stages, of hostages only if the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza is guaranteed, with a full cease-fire implemented toward the end of the entire process. It appears that the U.S. has promised to make such a guarantee, to some degree or another. The problem is the synchronization between the hostage release phases and the full cessation of combat. Another dispute involves Israel's ability to veto the release of some Palestinian prisoners who are known as arch-terrorists and are being demanded by Hamas.
If, somehow, Hamas responds positively, the onus will shift to Netanyahu. Hostages' families will expand their protests and probably garner wider public support. Protest leaders are pinning their hopes on the National Unity Party, particularly former military chief of staff and current lawmaker Gadi Eisenkot, who is part of the war cabinet and is showing the most sympathy to their campaign. And yet, especially after the announcement by Netanyahu's office on Saturday, the hostage saga is taking on clear political hues, dividing the public into left and right.
The death of two Israeli hostages was reported in the past few days. The IDF has determined that Dror Or of Be'eri was murdered on the kibbutz on October 7, with his body abducted to Gaza. A secondary examination revealed that Elyakim Libman from Kiryat Arba, a security guard at the Nova music festival who bravely saved revellers at the massacre, was not taken hostage to Gaza but killed that day. His remains were mistakenly buried along with the body of another guard. The number of hostages in Gaza has, therefore, dropped to 132. According to the military, over 30 of those are no longer alive. It's reasonable to assume that the true number of dead among the hostages is higher, but official announcements aren't made without definitive evidence. The continuation of the war, and certainly an invasion of Rafah, will endanger the lives of more hostages.
The Saudi carrot
The Biden administration still has one more incentive for Israel – a deal with Saudi Arabia. Along with talks for a hostage deal, senior American officials continue to raise the possibility that it could be part of a wider regional step that included the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. For this to happen, an Israeli agreement to end the war in Gaza and a generous release of Palestinian prisoners would be required. It would also involve, according to demands made by Riyadh, an Israeli agreement to make at least some token progress on Palestinian diplomatic negotiations. As far as is known, Netanyahu, trapped by his allies on the right, has responded negatively so far.
American officials have told their Israeli counterparts that a positive response from Israel would allow the administration to close an extensive deal that would also end the war in Gaza "within 48 hours." The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, considered to have Biden's ear, constantly urges Israel to take this line. It's also important for Biden to end the war in Gaza because it's causing major divisions within the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, he needs a major foreign policy achievement, which could be provided by the Saudi deal.
The administration is also interested in achieving peace on its internal front before the Democratic Party's convention in August, which will convene in Chicago this year. That same city hosted the most traumatic convention in the party's history, in 1968, with demonstrations against the Vietnam War disrupting the convention and signalling the loss of power to the Republicans three months later. According to American and Israeli sources, several Biden advisers believe his approach to Netanyahu is too soft and that he should increase his pressure on the prime minister to achieve progress. Israel's current strategy, they claim, is leading nowhere.
Amos Harel
May 4, 2024 7:35 pm IDT
Negotiations toward a hostage deal with Hamas reached a critical point this weekend. The Egyptian and Qatari mediators – perhaps the American ones, too – bombarded Arab media outlets with optimistic forecasts in a bid to spur Israel and Hamas to commit themselves to a deal. On Saturday, it remained unclear whether the Hamas delegation in Cairo will respond to the mediators positively or reservedly ("Yes, but…").
The Biden administration, concerned about yet another failed effort, dispatched CIA chief William Burns to Cairo. The Washington Post reported that as part of the efforts to salvage the negotiations, the U.S. demanded that Qatar expel Hamas leaders from its soil if the organization rejects the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, quickly began responding to the optimistic reports on Saturday, issuing an announcement disseminated among Israeli media outlets.
In the guise of a "senior diplomatic official," Netanyahu announced that "in contrast to reports, Israel will under no circumstances agree to end the war as part of a deal involving the release of hostages. The IDF will enter Rafah and destroy the Hamas battalions remaining there, whether there is a temporary truce for releasing the hostages or not."
Netanyahu's announcement elicited enraged reactions from both sides of the debate. Even on the right, many already don't believe the prime minister's empty promises about the taking of Rafah and "absolute victory." The Hostages and Missing Families Forum(and military top brass) are concerned that with this announcement, Netanyahu is harming mediators' efforts deliberately. Furthermore, such a blunt statement could widen the rift between Israel and the U.S., which has recently praised Israel for its flexibility while laying responsibility for delays in reaching a deal.
Israel's revived threat to enter Rafah should be taken with caution. The military is indeed making preparations for capturing Rafah, but these have been halted and restarted many times over during the last three months. Last week, in a phone conversation between President Joe Biden and Netanyahu amid a visit to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Americans emphasized that in their view, an invasion of Rafah was unacceptable – certainly without Israel taking careful and systematic steps to evacuate the more than one million Palestinian civilians currently in the area. It's more likely that Israel is leaning toward a limited military move in the city, if any at all.
The U.S. administration has been dropping hints about possible sanctions over a Rafah invasion. These include a suspension of the near-automatic veto cast by the U.S. at the UN Security Council on anti-Israel resolutions and an embargo on or delay of vital arms supplies to Israel. These are huge risks for Israel, particularly if an invasion of Rafah leads to further escalation with Hezbollah and Iran. Israel needs the firm support of the U.S. in the event of a multi-arena war breaking out. Netanyahu is still presumably well aware of what his allies on the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are refusing to grasp.
There is also the growing issue of international legitimacy. Western countries' support for the military's moves is diminishing further the longer the war goes on. Any incident in Rafah resulting in civilian casualties would draw international attention, with the Palestinians trying to present any incident as an Israeli war crime, as they did with the affair of the "mass grave" discovered near a hospital in Khan Yunis.
There is another reason for remaining cautious in the face of optimistic forecasts in Arab media. The final arbiter on the matter – the only one, really – is Hamas' leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. The success of the October 7 attack consolidated his status in the organization, at the expense of its tradition of shared decision-making. Since then, he has been spearheading a tough, uncompromising stance, seemingly disregarding in particular Hamas' leaders in Qatar. In comparison to December and January, Sinwar appears not to feel he is in serious trouble. Israeli military pressure is currently only theoretical, the expanded humanitarian aid is chilling some of the fury felt by Gaza residents toward him, and the eruption on American campuses only complicates Israel's diplomatic situation. Such an analysis of the situation, seen through the eyes of a fanatic holding a murderous ideology, makes the chances of him compromising slim.
The latest American announcements have made it clear that achieving a deal depends on Hamas. This followed a genuine show of flexibility on Israel's part, agreed to by Netanyahu under pressure from the other members of the war cabinet. The main stumbling block in the negotiations is the subject of ending the war. Hamas is willing to proceed with the release, in several stages, of hostages only if the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza is guaranteed, with a full cease-fire implemented toward the end of the entire process. It appears that the U.S. has promised to make such a guarantee, to some degree or another. The problem is the synchronization between the hostage release phases and the full cessation of combat. Another dispute involves Israel's ability to veto the release of some Palestinian prisoners who are known as arch-terrorists and are being demanded by Hamas.
If, somehow, Hamas responds positively, the onus will shift to Netanyahu. Hostages' families will expand their protests and probably garner wider public support. Protest leaders are pinning their hopes on the National Unity Party, particularly former military chief of staff and current lawmaker Gadi Eisenkot, who is part of the war cabinet and is showing the most sympathy to their campaign. And yet, especially after the announcement by Netanyahu's office on Saturday, the hostage saga is taking on clear political hues, dividing the public into left and right.
The death of two Israeli hostages was reported in the past few days. The IDF has determined that Dror Or of Be'eri was murdered on the kibbutz on October 7, with his body abducted to Gaza. A secondary examination revealed that Elyakim Libman from Kiryat Arba, a security guard at the Nova music festival who bravely saved revellers at the massacre, was not taken hostage to Gaza but killed that day. His remains were mistakenly buried along with the body of another guard. The number of hostages in Gaza has, therefore, dropped to 132. According to the military, over 30 of those are no longer alive. It's reasonable to assume that the true number of dead among the hostages is higher, but official announcements aren't made without definitive evidence. The continuation of the war, and certainly an invasion of Rafah, will endanger the lives of more hostages.
The Saudi carrot
The Biden administration still has one more incentive for Israel – a deal with Saudi Arabia. Along with talks for a hostage deal, senior American officials continue to raise the possibility that it could be part of a wider regional step that included the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. For this to happen, an Israeli agreement to end the war in Gaza and a generous release of Palestinian prisoners would be required. It would also involve, according to demands made by Riyadh, an Israeli agreement to make at least some token progress on Palestinian diplomatic negotiations. As far as is known, Netanyahu, trapped by his allies on the right, has responded negatively so far.
American officials have told their Israeli counterparts that a positive response from Israel would allow the administration to close an extensive deal that would also end the war in Gaza "within 48 hours." The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, considered to have Biden's ear, constantly urges Israel to take this line. It's also important for Biden to end the war in Gaza because it's causing major divisions within the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, he needs a major foreign policy achievement, which could be provided by the Saudi deal.
The administration is also interested in achieving peace on its internal front before the Democratic Party's convention in August, which will convene in Chicago this year. That same city hosted the most traumatic convention in the party's history, in 1968, with demonstrations against the Vietnam War disrupting the convention and signalling the loss of power to the Republicans three months later. According to American and Israeli sources, several Biden advisers believe his approach to Netanyahu is too soft and that he should increase his pressure on the prime minister to achieve progress. Israel's current strategy, they claim, is leading nowhere.
