Israel's Muted Strike on Isfahan Shows Netanyahu Has No Strategy on Iran, as Well as Gaza
Anshel Pfeffer
Apr 19, 2024 3:54 pm IDT
Haaretz
There's something almost coy about the Israeli government's silence Friday morning after the strike on an Iranian air base near Isfahan that American officials say was carried out by Israel. It's almost as if someone in Jerusalem hoped that the events of the past 19 days could be rolled back – as if the fact that Iran and Israel have been in direct conflict could be conveniently forgotten and we could all go back to the shadow proxy war.
Five days of arguing in the war cabinet, of leaks, of counter-briefings and even rabbinical briefings seem to have yielded a limited and calibrated attack that Israel isn't taking responsibility for and the Iranians are also anxious to play down. The muted response from Washington also indicates that the Biden administration was in the loop. For the next few days there will be incomplete and uncorroborated reports on what actually went down over Isfahan, just as there were this past week regarding the Iranian strike.
Benjamin Netanyahu wants this all wrapped up and put away by the time we sit down for the Passover seder Monday night – just some leftovers of chametz that can be put on a bonfire and rendered meaningless "as the soil of the earth."
On Thursday it was leaked that the leaders of the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu's governing coalition had relayed warnings from their rabbis not to jeopardize Israel by attacking Iran without America's blessing. It was a bizarre intervention that seemed designed to provide Netanyahu with political cover for a less than forceful retaliation. But this isn't over.
The war cabinet and General Staff contain people who called for a more radical response; they'll be waiting to say they were right. Itamar Ben-Gvir, who despite his grand title of "national security minister" isn't a member of the war cabinet and wasn't part of the decision-making process, has already broken Netanyahu's orders not to mention the strike on Iran. He tweeted disparagingly, dardale – a weak kick easily blocked by the goalkeeper. (This might have been Ben-Gvir's son Shovael, an amateur soccer player who runs his father's social media accounts.)
The far right is preparing a narrative portraying Netanyahu as a weak leader advised by a treacherous General Staff that failed on October 7 and was cowed by the "hostile" Joe Biden. The belated opening of Gaza to aid convoys, the scaling-down of the war there and the delay of a Rafah operation are all part of that narrative. Now far-rightists can add the lackluster strike on Iran to that list.
For them, it's a win-win strategy. Either, they goad Netanyahu into action in Gaza, which will fit their desires for a never-ending war there that will eventually allow them to build settlements. Or they have their election campaign ready for the moment the government falls. If only Netanyahu had listened to them, Israel would have won.
Netanyahu may have actually gained some ground this week by restraining the ministers and generals who wanted a crushing counterattack on Iran. The polls show him starting to inch back up. Surveys showed that a majority of Israelis were against a strike on Iran that would have led to an all-out war.
But any such gains will almost certainly be short-lived. If this round against Iran is indeed about the attention of Israelis, it will soon return to the quagmire in Gaza, the hostages still dying there and the stalemate up north with Hezbollah, which is preventing the return of tens of thousands to their homes near the border.
The prime minister's almost complete silence this week has reflected the strategic and political headaches that the Iranian strike caused him. The man who made a career out of talking up the Iranian threat has had nothing to say about an actual Iranian attack on Israel.
It's not just his notorious indecisiveness that has prevented him from speaking up. Finally, after decades of empty words, the moment of truth came and he had nothing to show. The Iranian regime changed its policy, choosing a direct attack instead of working through its proxies, surprising Netanyahu and the intelligence community. His strategy, 40 years in the making, wasn't ready for this.
Just like Netanyahu's resistance to presenting a day-after plan for Gaza, he has no plans for Iran now that Tehran has upended his strategy. The strike in Isfahan is at most a temporary measure. Something had to be done in response to the Iranian attack, and this was something. Once again, the grand geopolitical strategist has been exposed as a windbag with nothing to offer Israel but faux-Churchillian sound bites.
Apr 19, 2024 3:54 pm IDT
Haaretz
There's something almost coy about the Israeli government's silence Friday morning after the strike on an Iranian air base near Isfahan that American officials say was carried out by Israel. It's almost as if someone in Jerusalem hoped that the events of the past 19 days could be rolled back – as if the fact that Iran and Israel have been in direct conflict could be conveniently forgotten and we could all go back to the shadow proxy war.
Five days of arguing in the war cabinet, of leaks, of counter-briefings and even rabbinical briefings seem to have yielded a limited and calibrated attack that Israel isn't taking responsibility for and the Iranians are also anxious to play down. The muted response from Washington also indicates that the Biden administration was in the loop. For the next few days there will be incomplete and uncorroborated reports on what actually went down over Isfahan, just as there were this past week regarding the Iranian strike.
Benjamin Netanyahu wants this all wrapped up and put away by the time we sit down for the Passover seder Monday night – just some leftovers of chametz that can be put on a bonfire and rendered meaningless "as the soil of the earth."
On Thursday it was leaked that the leaders of the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu's governing coalition had relayed warnings from their rabbis not to jeopardize Israel by attacking Iran without America's blessing. It was a bizarre intervention that seemed designed to provide Netanyahu with political cover for a less than forceful retaliation. But this isn't over.
The war cabinet and General Staff contain people who called for a more radical response; they'll be waiting to say they were right. Itamar Ben-Gvir, who despite his grand title of "national security minister" isn't a member of the war cabinet and wasn't part of the decision-making process, has already broken Netanyahu's orders not to mention the strike on Iran. He tweeted disparagingly, dardale – a weak kick easily blocked by the goalkeeper. (This might have been Ben-Gvir's son Shovael, an amateur soccer player who runs his father's social media accounts.)
The far right is preparing a narrative portraying Netanyahu as a weak leader advised by a treacherous General Staff that failed on October 7 and was cowed by the "hostile" Joe Biden. The belated opening of Gaza to aid convoys, the scaling-down of the war there and the delay of a Rafah operation are all part of that narrative. Now far-rightists can add the lackluster strike on Iran to that list.
For them, it's a win-win strategy. Either, they goad Netanyahu into action in Gaza, which will fit their desires for a never-ending war there that will eventually allow them to build settlements. Or they have their election campaign ready for the moment the government falls. If only Netanyahu had listened to them, Israel would have won.
Netanyahu may have actually gained some ground this week by restraining the ministers and generals who wanted a crushing counterattack on Iran. The polls show him starting to inch back up. Surveys showed that a majority of Israelis were against a strike on Iran that would have led to an all-out war.
But any such gains will almost certainly be short-lived. If this round against Iran is indeed about the attention of Israelis, it will soon return to the quagmire in Gaza, the hostages still dying there and the stalemate up north with Hezbollah, which is preventing the return of tens of thousands to their homes near the border.
The prime minister's almost complete silence this week has reflected the strategic and political headaches that the Iranian strike caused him. The man who made a career out of talking up the Iranian threat has had nothing to say about an actual Iranian attack on Israel.
It's not just his notorious indecisiveness that has prevented him from speaking up. Finally, after decades of empty words, the moment of truth came and he had nothing to show. The Iranian regime changed its policy, choosing a direct attack instead of working through its proxies, surprising Netanyahu and the intelligence community. His strategy, 40 years in the making, wasn't ready for this.
Just like Netanyahu's resistance to presenting a day-after plan for Gaza, he has no plans for Iran now that Tehran has upended his strategy. The strike in Isfahan is at most a temporary measure. Something had to be done in response to the Iranian attack, and this was something. Once again, the grand geopolitical strategist has been exposed as a windbag with nothing to offer Israel but faux-Churchillian sound bites.
