Early signs of a recession 😞

It’s hard not to notice the many empty shelves as I stroll through the grocery store. Feels a bit like the early subtleties of a subdued dystopian movie.

I usually order grocery pick-up, but had to pop in to grab some stuff that I assumed was missing from my order because.. well.. sometimes staff just don’t feel like searching for your item. 🤷🏻‍♀️ Nope..
The disconnect gave me a moment of pause. If I hadn’t topped out of the car I would’ve gone about my evening oblivious to the state of things. Made me think about other buffers we have in place as a society to shield ourselves from day to day awareness that things are not ‘fine’ heh.

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SomeMichGuy · M

I'm not sure how this equates to a recession...?

WhateverWorks · 36-40

My feeling is when a grocery store goes from completely stocked all the time with a bunch of variety to increasingly being sold out of many things, both in-demand and staple items, it’s a bad sign. @SomeMichGuy

SomeMichGuy · M

@WhateverWorks Sure, but how does that equate to recession?

WhateverWorks · 36-40

Possible early signs of systemic economic challenges when there’s still food, but less abundance and options @SomeMichGuy

SomeMichGuy · M

@WhateverWorks People have more disposable income, so, with some limits on what we are getting from distant lands, in-demand and staple items might def. be flying off of shelves.

The unwinding of the US' ceding of domestic production for critical items will take time.

And some businesses are trying to maje windfall profits (Abbott seems to have acted socially irresponsibly...but I hope it tarnishes its reputation and brings competitors to the market).

I think the real problem will be this winter, with soaring gas & fertilizer costs.

WhateverWorks · 36-40

Here it seems so random. The other night when I popped in they were out of regular granny Smith apples for example. There’s also a nationwide I believe formula shortage. It’s not as if everything is completely barren À la’ zombie apocalypse, but there were so many things missing that it was impossible not to notice, which seems to be getting worse where I live.

This post is just a small passing thought though, not an economic report. There are many more important things going on that suggest we’re in trouble. For me, I felt more like… an awareness of what we in the United States take for granted.

@SomeMichGuy

SomeMichGuy · M

@WhateverWorks I think you hit the nail on the head.

We are pretty used to a very efficient international distribution system providing us with all manner of food, following harvests as that season marches around the world, through varying latitudes.

However, just like the US auto execs never looked at the sandbox im which they were playing--how cheap gas gave rise to the notion that "Americans will never buy a small car"--we have not stopped to consider the assumptions which have made the global distribution system work.

And American businesses actually moved to make this worse by, e.g., getting rid of storage capacity/warehousing in favor of "just-in-time" production. This makes variations in production very visible to the consumer, along with greater price volatility and little/no ability to deal with even short-term shortages.

And still being as reliant as we are on fossil fuels...

WhateverWorks · 36-40

It’s all very interesting to me. I can’t drive nor will I ever be able to, so I don’t keep up with gas prices unless someone vents to me about it. I intentionally live my life in such a way where I can access most things I need and enjoy either by walking or bus. Even though I am usually oblivious to the actual cost of gas happening, what I end up observing all around me is when the fossil fuel dependent infrastructure starts to struggle. @SomeMichGuy