Ever done a cost benefit analysis?
Poll - Total Votes: 2
Experiment and see if it works
Don't experiment because studies say it does't work.
You can only vote on one answer.
Lets say you have a store with valuables in it. You need to decide if you need to put a lock on the door. The cost $50.00 for a cheap lock. The benefit it will keep people from robbing the store while you are not there. The alternative is to not put a lock on the door and trust that no one ever breaks in to steal stuff. Both are realistic alternatives. Spend $50.00 and keep $5000.00 worth of stuff from being stolen or keep the $50.00 and maybe no one will break in and steal the stuff. I think most people would say that they would buy the lock.
Covid 19 happens. Someone suggests that a very safe drug be used to combat the illness. The history of the drug is very well known and it is so safe most doctors prescribe it without even doing a medical work up to see if it would be ok for you to take it. The cost about $10.00. The potential benefit is it helps thousands of people stay alive. If it doesn't work the patient is out $10.00. Let's look at the alternative. If the drug is not given there will be 10s of thousands of people dead. If the drug works there will be 10s of thousands of people still alive. We know that no drug will ever be 100% effective but lets say it is 25% effective and 75% ineffective. Well of the hundreds of thousands infected 25% more of them will be alive than if the drug is not used. If the drug is completely ineffective the patient is out $10.00.
Now I think the drug should be tried as do 50,000 doctors who recently signed a petition or are already using the drug. What is the cost per patient if it doesn't work? $10.00. What is the cost to the patient if it does work but he can't get it? His life. So the cost is either $10.00 or the patient's life. The benefit is saving $10.00 or saving thousands of patients lives. Why is this even a debate? If it works tremendous upside. Thousands of lives saved. If it doesn't work? The cost is about $10.00.
Covid 19 happens. Someone suggests that a very safe drug be used to combat the illness. The history of the drug is very well known and it is so safe most doctors prescribe it without even doing a medical work up to see if it would be ok for you to take it. The cost about $10.00. The potential benefit is it helps thousands of people stay alive. If it doesn't work the patient is out $10.00. Let's look at the alternative. If the drug is not given there will be 10s of thousands of people dead. If the drug works there will be 10s of thousands of people still alive. We know that no drug will ever be 100% effective but lets say it is 25% effective and 75% ineffective. Well of the hundreds of thousands infected 25% more of them will be alive than if the drug is not used. If the drug is completely ineffective the patient is out $10.00.
Now I think the drug should be tried as do 50,000 doctors who recently signed a petition or are already using the drug. What is the cost per patient if it doesn't work? $10.00. What is the cost to the patient if it does work but he can't get it? His life. So the cost is either $10.00 or the patient's life. The benefit is saving $10.00 or saving thousands of patients lives. Why is this even a debate? If it works tremendous upside. Thousands of lives saved. If it doesn't work? The cost is about $10.00.
61-69, M
