Worrisome Indications That Russia Is Planning Something Beyond Ukraine

Japan spots four Russian amphibious warships laden with military trucks sailing West 'possibly to Europe' past its islands as Putin continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine

*Four Russian warships carrying combat vehicles crossed strategic Tsugaru strait
*Japan's defense ministry fears the westward vessels may be heading for Europe
*They may also have troops onboard to reinforce Russia's flagging invasion
*Russia has lost around 7,000 soldiers and more than 1,000 tanks and aircraft

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10623699/

You simply don't put military vehicles on cargo ships and send them on a 12,000+ mile sea voyage if you need them right away when you have a transcontinental rail network.

Russia already controls nearly the entire seacoast of Ukraine, save for the area around Odessa. But an amphibious assault on Odessa would be more costly than a continued ground offensive. It would be like the Allies in World War II invading the Netherlands by sea when we already had plenty of ground forces in France and Belgium.

So, then, what might the possible targets be, especially if assault troops are accompanying the amphibious warships?

* seize control of the Suez Canal
* pick up Syrian fighters to use as cannon fodder in Ukraine
* seize control of the Bosphorus Straits in they are worried Turkey will shut off access to the Mediterranean Sea in the event of a conflict with NATO
* simply relocating the equipment to Syria in the event they are needed in a ground assault against Turkey's southern border

Russia doesn't need these ships to attack the Baltic nations and any other military action in the Mediterranean Sea beyond that already mentioned would be foolhardy.

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ArishMell · 70-79, M

They could indeed, but they have an Baltic Coast exclave, Kaliningrad, surrounded by Lithuania and Poland. Russia normally has some sort of agreement to reach this over-land, I think via Belarus and Lithuania, but at the moment their route has been blocked.

It doesn't seem very likely that the ships seen off Japan are going all the way round to the Baltic though. It will be interesting to see where they do go. The Middle East or some pro-Russian African country perhaps?

Here's another thought.....

West from Japan is China, but China is not likely to be buying the vehicles. However, the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are paradoxically more friendly to each other than when they were both Communist, their armies watching each nervously across their heavily-fortified, River Amur border. The two nations have already carried out joint military exercises, and my guess is that these four ships were on their way to another.

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One route Russia can use to reach the Mediterranean and its surrounding nations is from Crimea, which is presumably why it annexed the peninsula.

Although all the speculation about Putin's unstated "plan" includes creating a land route to it, Crimea already has direct access from Russian territory, using road and rail bridges across the narrow Kersh Strait that joins the Azov and Black Seas. The Russian side is their province of Yuzhnyy, which borders Georgia and Azerbaijan, but does not seem to have any major ports on its own Black Sea coast.

ArishMell · 70-79, M

Or Russia has exported the vehicles somewhere, which would seem an odd thing to do when they are likely to want them themselves, but if so, to whom? Syria does seem a likely bet.

I don't know if lorries that large can be transported by rail, which would be a lot faster than by sea, but even driving them across the continent would probably be quicker than using ships.

If they were destined for the Baltic I would have thought the Russians more likely to send them from one of their Northern ports, like Murmansk.

Looking at the photo closely, there does not seem a ready, rapid way to load and unload those vehicles without either heavy-lift cranes or roll-on, roll-off ferry facilities, unless the ship has a bow door and ramp not clear in the picture. It would also assume, if this is an amphibious landing-ship, being able to use a beach and coastal lands suitable for the purpose in the intended area.

No doubt Japan is not the only country watching these ships.

beckyromero · 36-40, F

@ArishMell

Russia can invade the Baltics directly from Russia (which borders Estonia and Latvia) and thru Belarus and via Kaliningrad (to get to Lithuania).

If Russia occupied all of Ukraine, it would directly border Romania, Hungary and Czechia. In would also have a second front against Poland (which also borders Kaliningrad).

chrisCA · M

@beckyromero Considering how well Russia has been stalled by Ukraine, they would get their asses handed to them by NATO.

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