I never heard anyone saying "by July". But even if people were expecting that date, the reason we haven't advanced much is because we were in forced lockdown...
9 months into this pandemic there are still people convinced that it's all a hoax, and their only metric is death rates calculated on partial data, ignoring completely the fact that, if/when healthcare facilities will no longer be capable of receiving inpatients due to saturation, the death rate itself will match de facto the hospitalisation one (good luck surviving it without O2 suppl. if you happen to get it bad.
Go check what was the death rate in Bergamo in April.
All this of course because people with the same amount connected neurons of a pudding, led by a TV host who happened to find himself the president of a superpower, are too inconvenienced by admitting they f*cked up day by day since day one and claim to know better than the entire academic world. It'll start by defusing situations like this, hopefully.
I think it will be counted as effective when the case counts go down drastically and stay down even after lockdowns are eased. This is based on what I've read in newspapers.